Impact of the global crisis on the achievement of the MDGs in Latin America

Progress towards the MDGs is expected to slow as a consequence of the global economic downturn. This study applies an economy-wide framework to analyze the impact of the crisis on MDG achievement in six Latin American countries. It finds significant setbacks towards the goals and, in the case of the region’s low-income countries, the cost of achieving these would rise between 1.6 and 3.4 per cent of GDP per year between 2010 and 2015 as compared with a no-crisis scenario. The additional public spending would contribute to economic growth though not sufficiently for full recovery to pre-crisis growth.computable general equilibrium models, distribution, welfare and poverty, foreign aid, macroeconomic analyses of economic development

A non-parametric microsimulation approach to assess changes in inequality and poverty

This paper presents a non-parametric microsimulation methodology for assessing the impact of labour market changes and government transfers on income inequality and poverty at the household level. The approach assumes that labour markets are segmented and determines (as part of a randomized process) which individuals are expected to move in or out of employment and which move from one employment segment to another based on either known or counterfactual information of aggregate labour market changes. The methodology assumes that the distribution of earnings of those who become employed in a particular segment resembles that of the individuals observed to be employed in that segment. The approach can be effectively combined in top-down fashion with static or dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which typically provide insufficient information about household income distribution. The paper discusses the virtues and limitations of applying this methodology and further explains to practitioners how to implement it as a stand-alone methodology or in combination with a CGE model. It also shows how the methodology can be generalized to also capture the poverty and inequality effects of changes in non-labour incomes, such as government transfers. One great advantage of this method is that it is not very demanding in terms of modelling labour supply and household behaviour as compared with alternative parametric approaches, while at the same time providing a plausible link between changes in overall labour market conditions and the full household income distribution.

A Non-Parametric Microsimulation Approach to Assess Changes in Inequality and Poverty

This paper presents a non-parametric microsimulation methodology for assessing the determinants of changes in income inequality and poverty. One great advantage of this method over alternatives is that it is not very demanding in terms of modelling labour supply and household behaviour while still providing a plausible link between changes in overall labour market conditions and the full household income distribution. The paper also shows how the method can be adapted to assess the poverty and inequality effects of changes in non-labour incomes (such as through a government transfer programme) and how it can be combined with economy-wide models.Non-parametric simulation methods; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Income Distribution; Employment, Unemployment, and Wages; Measurement and Analysis of Poverty; Effects of Welfare Programs; Supply and Demand for Labour; Segmented Labour Markets

Latin America and the Caribbean’s Challenge to Reach the MDGs: Financing Options and Trade-offs

The present study analyzes the determinants of improving outcomes in education, health and basic sanitation and the macroeconomic trade-offs caused by scaling up public spending for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), using an integrated modelling approach. At variance with other assessments, the analysis shows that most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are “off track” towards many of the goals. The study shows that while achieving the goals is affordable for most countries in the region, governments will need to put greater emphasis on tax reforms to mobilize resources for increased social spending while avoiding undesirable macroeconomic trade-offs.Computable General Equilibrium Models; Distribution; Welfare and Poverty; Foreign Aid; Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

Financing Human Development in Africa, Asia and the Middle East

This book is available as open access through the Bloomsbury Open Access programme and is available on bloomsburycollections.com. How much would poor nations need to invest to eliminate poverty, get all children in school and provide adequate basic health care for all? Can they afford it? Financing Human Development in Africa, Asia and the Middle East provides some clear answers to these questions. The contributors assess feasible financing strategies underpinning actions to enhance human development in pursuance of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The contributors analyse these strategies in the context of broader concerns of economic development in nine countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The assessments stress the importance of redesigning macroeconomic policies so as to make these more supportive of long-term economic growth and employment creation, while ensuring sufficient investments in human development in order to end poverty and overcome deep-rooted inequalities

Choques externos y políticas de protección social en América Latina

Las crisis recientes han demostrado que América Latina sigue siendo altamente vulnerable a los choques externos. A pesar de la recuperación económica que desde fines del año 2009, la vulnerabilidad externa prevalece debido a la alta volatilidad de los mercados mundiales. Las opciones de un crecimiento sostenible y de reducción de la pobreza dependerán en alto grado de las capacidades de los países para mitigar esa volatilidad y su impacto sobre el bienestar de la población. Diversas simulaciones generadas para siete países de la región mediante el modelo de equilibrio general computable denominado MACEPES, demuestran que choques externos típicos de un contexto de crisis mundial (deterioro en los términos de intercambio, salida de capitales y reducción de las remesas) contraen la demanda agregada y el empleo, generando “desprotección” social y más pobreza en ausencia de políticas anti-cíclicas. Ante la eventualidad de choques externos, las transferencias directas a los hogares son altamente efectivas en términos de reducir la pobreza, incluso una vez considerado el impacto contractivo de su financiamiento sobre la inversión. Este instrumento podría implementarse en el marco de programas de transferencias condicionadas a la educación o de pensiones no contributivas, pero se plantea como reto la movilización de recursos para su financiamiento.

Financing Human Development in Africa, Asia and the Middle East

This book is available as open access through the Bloomsbury Open Access programme and is available on bloomsburycollections.com. How much would poor nations need to invest to eliminate poverty, get all children in school and provide adequate basic health care for all? Can they afford it? Financing Human Development in Africa, Asia and the Middle East provides some clear answers to these questions. The contributors assess feasible financing strategies underpinning actions to enhance human development in pursuance of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The contributors analyse these strategies in the context of broader concerns of economic development in nine countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The assessments stress the importance of redesigning macroeconomic policies so as to make these more supportive of long-term economic growth and employment creation, while ensuring sufficient investments in human development in order to end poverty and overcome deep-rooted inequalities

Lack of linkages among fruiting depth, weight, and maturity in irrigated truffle fungi marks the complexity of relationships among morphogenetic stages

The highly prized black truffle (Tuber melanosporum) has become a model species for ectomycorrhizal fungi biology. However, several questions concerning its reproductive phase remain unanswered. To provide new hypotheses on the fruitbody formation process, we have explored the causal links among development characters of black truffle fruitbodies that are primarily linked to either the mating process, fruitbody growing stage, or maturation. Path analysis was applied to test causal models outlining the relationships among fruitbody development characters such as fruiting depth, weight, shape, and spore maturity. These characters were investigated over a two-season survey and three soil typologies (plus peat-based substrate) under irrigated conditions. We found a clear and generalized relationship between fruitbody weight and shape. Among clusters of fruitbodies we found a positive relationship between the weight of the largest fruitbody and the weight of the remaining fruitbodies. However, no generalized relationships among characters linked to different development stages appeared. Our results were noticeably consistent across soil typologies, both for fruitbodies growing singly and in clusters, indicating that early-developing fruitbody characters did not influence characters linked to subsequent morphogenetic stages. The lack of links among stages opens new perspectives for pre-harvest quality management with stage-specific cultivation practices