The positive externalities of an art museum. A zero-truncated Poisson approach

Only in the 80’s cultural activity has began to be viewed as a part of tourism (OECD, 2009). The UNWTO estimated that cultural tourism accounted for 40% of all international tourism, up from 37% in 1995 (Mintel, 2011). Museums play a relevant role as repositories of education, social cohesion and personal development. They are a stimulus for the economy, since culture consumers generally have a higher spending propensity than other consumers’ segments (Europa Inform, 2004). Museums are expected to produce positive externalities that can be called cultural spill-over. A museum will not benefit only the public (private) investor but society as a whole because new knowledge will enter society’s pool of cultural knowledge. This study predicts the repeat visitation to the MART of Rovereto, one of the most important museums of modern and contemporary art in Italy. The survey data were obtained during autumn 2009 on site. Via a zero-truncated Poisson estimation, a positive effect on the odds of having a repeat visitation to the museum, is given by either the presence of a temporary exposition or a permanent and temporary exposition; the probability to revisit the museum within the same year; visitation of the annex “Casa Deperoâ€, an important futurist arts exposition, restored in January 2009; visitation of any other city that hosted MART. Negative effects on the odds are given by the distance; number of people travelling with the interviewed visitor; the probability to recommend the museum to friends and family.

A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy

Nowadays many developing countries focus on economic policies for promoting international tourism and exports expansion as a potential source of economic growth of the country. However, the understanding of the relationship between exports and economic growth is still ongoing. When treating the relationship between tourism and economic growth, considering tourism as a non-traditional export few studies have been published to date. This paper has the objective to assess if exports and tourism have really promoted growth by means of the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) and the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). The cases under analysis are Spain and Italy, two of the most important countries worldwide regarding the expansion of tourism. Cointegration techniques and the multivariate Granger causality test are applied. Results reveal that exports cause economic growth in the long-term for both countries, whilst only for Spain tourism appears as a factor which influences economic growth in the lon-run.Economic Growth, Exports, Tourism, Cointegration, Multivariate Granger Causality, Spain, Italy

Quantitative forecasting for tourisme: OLS and ARIMAX approaches

The paper analyses, estimates and forecasts the demand for international and domestic tourism to Sardinia (Italy). Monthly data are used for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Concepts such as seasonal and long run unit roots are employed. Two econometric approaches, the OLS and ARIMAX, are used that give satisfactory results in terms of both the estimation and forecasting phases. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for tourism demand to Sardinia for the period between January and December 2003

A discrete choice approach to model credit card fraud

This paper analyses the demographic, socio-economics and banking specific determinants that influence the risk of fraud in a portfolio of credit cards. The data are from recent account archives for cards issued throughout Italy. A logit framework is employed that incorporates cards at a risk of fraud as the dependent variable and a set of explanatory variables (e.g. gender, location, credit line, number of transactions in euros and in non euros currency). The empirical results provide useful indicators on the factors that are responsible for potential risk of fraud.credit card; fraud; demographic and socio-economics factors; logit modelling.

Visitors' experience in a modern art museum: a structural equation model

This study aims to provide a better understanding on the museum experience by studying visitors’ motivation, satisfaction and likelihood to return to the Museum for Modern and Contemporary Art (MART) of Rovereto (Italy). The empirical data were obtained from a survey undertaken from September to November 2009. A theoretical model to analyze the attractiveness factors of the museum based on two exogenous variables (push and pull motivation) and two endogenous variables (satisfaction and loyalty) is used and a structural equation model is estimated as a confirmatory tool of the hypothetical model. The findings reveal that tourists visiting the MART are mainly motivated by push factors, as relaxation, looking for a new experience and learn new things. Loyalty also positively influences the probability to return to the MART and recommend to friends and family. However, visit the city or the region of Trentino has no impact on satisfaction and loyalty to the MART. Besides, loyalty to MART does not imply the probability to recommend a visit to Rovereto

Potential users’ preferences towards cardiac telemedicine: a discrete choice experiment investigation in Sardinia

Background: Potential users’ preferences for telemedicine services directed to cardio-vascular diseases are investigated applying a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Given the potential of telemedicine to minimize costs without reducing overall efficiency, assessing preferences for these types of services represents a priority for policy makers. This is especially true for those pathologies that absorb a relatively high quota of total health expenditure. The empirical setting is Sardinia (Italy) because of its insularity and the underdeveloped internal transport network. Telemedicine is likely to mitigate distance between healthcare providers and final users. Methods: A survey conducted between February and May 2013 was administered to a selected Sardinian population older than 18 (potential users) through face-to-face interviews. A discrete choice experiment was implemented and four attributes (i.e. scanning mode, location, waiting list and cost) assess in what measure these influence potential users’ utility by using a random parameter modelling with heterogeneity (RPH). Results: The empirical findings, based on 2000 interviews, highlight that potential users are not very open to the application of telemedicine services in cardiology, mostly preferring the intromoenia (visit at the hospital) and private system. Besides, remarkable individual heterogeneity has been found. Conclusions: Potential users see the implementation of new technologies in healthcare with a certain caution. However, the relatively higher preferences towards services provided at their own municipality suggests that there is ground to explore further the implementation of telemedicine services through the family doctor and local pharmacy

Regional Public Policy and Tourism Life Cycle: the Case of Sardinia

The life cycle approach (LCA) is considered as a useful prescriptive and normative tool for analysing the development of destinations and evolution of markets. A case study of the Island of Sardinia (Italy) highlights the utility of the LCA approach because this region provides a long run indicator, in terms of nights of stay, number of beds and accommodation for approximately eighty years of tourism activity and, throughout this time span, the Island has experienced several stages of the life cycle. One of the aims of this paper is to verify the lag between tourist consumption and tourist production. An econometric and descriptive approach has detected heterogeneities between the domestic and international tourist life cycle. The main result is that in recent years Sardinian tourism has experienced a decline stage of the domestic demand and a maturity stage for the international demand, while the supply is still in the growth phase. Moreover, the paper shows that the dynamics of tourist demand are strictly dependent on the local public policy makers' actions and socio-economic changes. Furthermore, the development of the accommodation sector is triggered by different factors as well as the tourist demand. In the last few years numerous changes have occurred in Sardinia in terms of transportation (e.g. low cost airlines), progress in information technology and public policy, that have influenced the preferences of tourists; nevertheless, the divergence between demand and supply within the life cycle framework introduces three main critical areas to be addressed: the importance of a long run economic planning; the sustainability of tourism production; and the role of market information for tourist operators

Does more crime mean fewer jobs? An ARDL model

This paper analyses how a set of economic variables and a deterrence variable affect criminal activity. Furthermore, it highlights the extent to which crime is detrimental for the economic activity. The case study is Italy for the time span 1970 up to 2004. An Autoregressive Distributed Lags approach is employed to assess the cointegration status of the variables under investigation. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main finding is that all crime typologies, but homicides and fraud, have a crowding-out effect on legal economic activity, reducing the employment rate

Tourism and Growth: Evidence for Spain and Italy

International tourism is a major foreign exchange earner and a principal export for many low income countries as well as for developed ones. Nowadays many developing countries focus economic policies on promoting international tourism as a potential source of economic growth for the country However, the understanding of the relationship between exports and economic growth is still ongoing and, while cross-section studies support the hypothesis that exports promote growth, time series studies have been less conclusive. This paper has the objective to assess if exports and tourism have really promoted growth at an aggregated level for the two main developed countries in the Mediterranean area, namely Italy and Spain, that represent important countries regarding the expansion of tourism. The methodology applied in this work is a cointegration methodology and the Granger causality test