Valuing the Process of Corporate Restructuring

We study the process of corporate restructuring for a sample of 298 firms during the 1989-98 period that announce that they are considering restructuring alternatives. We find that restructuring is a lengthy process, with the majority of the restructuring period occurring prior to any definitive proposals for corporate change. Only 70 percent of the firms that initially propose restructuring later make a definitive proposal to sell either all or part of the firm, with other firms taking themselves out of play or declaring bankruptcy. Hence, the market reaction to the initial restructuring announcement underestimates the full wealth effects of completed restructurings. The estimate of the full value of restructuring across the sample firms averages 7.5 percent, with the greatest gains of 30 percent accruing to firms that are acquired. The average gain for the full restructuring period for firms divesting a unit is 5 percent, which is roughly double that estimated for the initial announcement in prior studies of corporate divestitures.

Corporate Restructuring and Corporate Auctions

We study 298 firms that announce the intent to consider restructuring during the 1989 to 1998 period. We find that the actions taken subsequent to the initial restructuring consideration are equally divided between (i) being acquired, (ii) divesting one or more subsidiaries, or (iii) either terminating the process or declaring bankruptcy. There is a greater completion rate in the second half of the sample, which suggests that economywide factors influence the restructuring decision. For the average firm in the sample, restructuring is a positive net present value decision, although sustained positive shareholder returns accrue only to the firms that actually complete restructuring. For a sub-sample of firms that are acquired, we detail the private auction process that is initiated and conducted by the selling firms and their investment banks. In the private auction, 80 percent of the selling firms have multiple bidders, even though only 20 percent of these cases have more than one publicly announced bidder. The depth of the private auction affects the runup of stock prices prior to the formal acquisition offer, suggesting a reinterpretation of the traditional explanations for the variation in premiums across target firms. The use of private auctions by selling firms also suggests one reason for the absence of toeholds in many mergers as well as the occurrence of multiple public bids even when there is only a single public bidder in a merger.

A randomized placebo-controlled trial of methotrexate in psoriatic arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: MTX is widely used to treat synovitis in PsA without supporting trial evidence. The aim of our study was to test the value of MTX in the first large randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) in PsA. METHODS: A 6-month double-blind RCT compared MTX (15 mg/week) with placebo in active PsA. The primary outcome was PsA response criteria (PsARC). Other outcomes included ACR20, DAS-28 and their individual components. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation methods. Treatments were compared using logistic regression analysis (adjusted for age, sex, disease duration and, where appropriate, individual baseline scores). RESULTS: Four hundred and sixty-two patients were screened and 221 recruited. One hundred and nine patients received MTX and 112 received placebo. Forty-four patients were lost to follow-up (21 MTX, 23 placebo). Twenty-six patients discontinued treatment (14 MTX, 12 placebo). Comparing MTX with placebo in all randomized patients at 6 months showed no significant effect on PsARC [odds ratio (OR) 1.77, 95% CI 0.97, 3.23], ACR20 (OR 2.00, 95% CI 0.65, 6.22) or DAS-28 (OR 1.70, 95% CI 0.90, 3.17). There were also no significant treatment effects on tender and swollen joint counts, ESR, CRP, HAQ and pain. The only benefits of MTX were reductions in patient and assessor global scores and skin scores at 6 months (P = 0.03, P < 0.001 and P = 0.02, respectively). There were no unexpected adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: This trial of active PsA found no evidence for MTX improving synovitis and consequently raises questions about its classification as a disease-modifying drug in PsA. Trial registration. Current Controlled Trials, www.controlled-trials.com, ISRCTN:54376151

Thirty Years After Michael E. Porter: What Do We Know About Business Exit?

Although a business exit is an important corporate change initiative, the buyer’s side seems to be more appealing to management researchers than the seller’s because acquisitions imply growth, i.e., success. Yet from an optimistic viewpoint, business exit can effectively create value for the selling company. In this paper we attempt to bring the relevance of the seller’s side back into our consciousness by asking: What do we know about business exit? We start our exploration with Porter (1976), focusing on literature that investigates the antecedents of, barriers to, and outcomes of business exit. We also include studies from related fields such as finance and economics.1 Through this research we determine three clusters of findings: factors promoting business exit, exit barriers, and exit outcomes. Overall, it is the intention of this paper to highlight the importance of business exit for research and practice. Knowing what we know about business exits and their high financial value we should bear in mind that exit need not mean failure but a new beginning for a corporation

Arctic shipping and polar seaways

Climate change in the Arctic triggered a series of discourses about the opening-up of a previously unreachable region. Navigation remains however difficult in the Arctic, transits are still very limited, as sea-ice still is a major constraint. How did the development policies of both the North West Passage and the Northern Sea Route unfold ? What are the recent trends in Arctic shipping ?

Chapter 8: Meta-analysis of Test Performance When There is a “Gold Standard”

Synthesizing information on test performance metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values and likelihood ratios is often an important part of a systematic review of a medical test. Because many metrics of test performance are of interest, the meta-analysis of medical tests is more complex than the meta-analysis of interventions or associations. Sometimes, a helpful way to summarize medical test studies is to provide a “summary point”, a summary sensitivity and a summary specificity. Other times, when the sensitivity or specificity estimates vary widely or when the test threshold varies, it is more helpful to synthesize data using a “summary line” that describes how the average sensitivity changes with the average specificity. Choosing the most helpful summary is subjective, and in some cases both summaries provide meaningful and complementary information. Because sensitivity and specificity are not independent across studies, the meta-analysis of medical tests is fundamentaly a multivariate problem, and should be addressed with multivariate methods. More complex analyses are needed if studies report results at multiple thresholds for positive tests. At the same time, quantitative analyses are used to explore and explain any observed dissimilarity (heterogeneity) in the results of the examined studies. This can be performed in the context of proper (multivariate) meta-regressions

CCR2-V64I polymorphism is associated with increased risk of cervical cancer but not with HPV infection or pre-cancerous lesions in African women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cervical cancer, caused by specific oncogenic types of human papillomavirus (HPV), is the second most common cancer in women worldwide. A large number of young sexually active women get infected by HPV but only a small fraction of them have persistent infection and develop cervical cancer pointing to co- factors including host genetics that might play a role in outcome of the HPV infection. This study investigated the role of <it>CCR2-V64I </it>polymorphism in cervical cancer, pre-cancers and HPV infection in South African women resident in Western Cape. <it>CCR2-V64I </it>polymorphism has been previously reported to influence the progression to cervical cancer in some populations and has also been associated with decreased progression from HIV infection to AIDS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Genotyping for <it>CCR2-V64I </it>was done by PCR-SSP in a case-control study of 446 women (106 black African and 340 mixed-ancestry) with histologically confirmed invasive cervical cancer and 1432 controls (322 black African and 1110 mixed-ancestry) group-matched (1:3) by age, ethnicity and domicile status. In the control women HPV was detected using the Digene Hybrid Capture II test and cervical disease was detected by cervical cytology.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The <it>CCR2-64I </it>variant was significantly associated with cervical cancer when cases were compared to the control group (P = 0.001). Further analysis comparing selected groups within the controls showed that individuals with abnormal cytology and high grade squamous intraepitleial neoplasia (HSIL) did not have this association when compared to women with normal cytology. HPV infection also showed no association with <it>CCR2-64I </it>variant. Comparing SIL positive controls with the cases showed a significant association of <it>CCR2-64I </it>variant (P = 0.001) with cervical cancer.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first study of the role of <it>CCR2-V64I </it>polymorphism in cervical cancer in an African population. Our results show that <it>CCR2-64I </it>variant is associated with the risk of cervical cancer but does not affect the susceptibility to HPV infection or HSIL in South African women of black and mixed-ancestry origin. This result implies that the role of CCR2 is important in invasive cancer of the cervix but not in HPV infection or in the development of pre-cancers.</p

Fatigue in primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) is associated with lower levels of proinflammatory cytokines: a validation study

Primary Sjögren’s syndrome (pSS) is a chronic autoimmune rheumatic disease with symptoms including dryness, fatigue, and pain. The previous work by our group has suggested that certain proinflammatory cytokines are inversely related to patient-reported levels of fatigue. To date, these findings have not been validated. This study aims to validate this observation. Blood levels of seven cytokines were measured in 120 patients with pSS from the United Kingdom Primary Sjögren’s Syndrome Registry and 30 age-matched healthy non-fatigued controls. Patient-reported scores for fatigue were classified according to severity and compared to cytokine levels using analysis of variance. The differences between cytokines in cases and controls were evaluated using Wilcoxon test. A logistic regression model was used to determine the most important identifiers of fatigue. Five cytokines, interferon-γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10), tumour necrosis factor-α (TNFα), interferon-α (IFNα), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), and lymphotoxin-α (LT-α) were significantly higher in patients with pSS (n = 120) compared to non-fatigued controls (n = 30). Levels of two proinflammatory cytokines, TNF-α (p = 0.021) and LT-α (p = 0.043), were inversely related to patient-reported levels of fatigue. Cytokine levels, disease-specific and clinical parameters as well as pain, anxiety, and depression were used as predictors in our validation model. The model correctly identifies fatigue levels with 85% accuracy. Consistent with the original study, pain, depression, and proinflammatory cytokines appear to be the most powerful predictors of fatigue in pSS. TNF-α and LT-α have an inverse relationship with fatigue severity in pSS challenging the notion that proinflammatory cytokines directly mediate fatigue in chronic immunological conditions