Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1–6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy

In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severe damage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of the geographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. The temporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a major river, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and even less accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on the period of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealed that in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response to extreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded to the torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited the rainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble-non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of related geohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEP algorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful for landslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. We acknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm in different meteorological, geological and physiographical settings

Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1–6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy

Abstract. In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severe damage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of the geographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. The temporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a major river, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and even less accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on the period of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealed that in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response to extreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded to the torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited the rainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble–non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of related geohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEP algorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful for landslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. We acknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm in different meteorological, geological and physiographical settings

Overcoming treatment-resistant depression with machine-learning based tools: a study protocol combining EEG and clinical data to personalize glutamatergic and brain stimulation interventions (SelecTool Project)

© 2024 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) poses a substantial health and economic challenge, persisting as a major concern despite decades of extensive research into novel treatment modalities. The considerable heterogeneity in TRD’s clinical manifestations and neurobiological bases has complicated efforts toward effective interventions. Recognizing the need for precise biomarkers to guide treatment choices in TRD, herein we introduce the SelecTool Project. This initiative focuses on developing (WorkPlane 1/WP1) and conducting preliminary validation (WorkPlane 2/WP2) of a computational tool (SelecTool) that integrates clinical data, neurophysiological (EEG) and peripheral (blood sample) biomarkers through a machine-learning framework designed to optimize TRD treatment protocols. The SelecTool project aims to enhance clinical decision-making by enabling the selection of personalized interventions. It leverages multi-modal data analysis to navigate treatment choices towards two validated therapeutic options for TRD: esketamine nasal spray (ESK-NS) and accelerated repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (arTMS). In WP1, 100 subjects with TRD will be randomized to receive either ESK-NS or arTMS, with comprehensive evaluations encompassing neurophysiological (EEG), clinical (psychometric scales), and peripheral (blood samples) assessments both at baseline (T0) and one month post-treatment initiation (T1). WP2 will utilize the data collected in WP1 to train the SelecTool algorithm, followed by its application in a second, out-of-sample cohort of 20 TRD subjects, assigning treatments based on the tool’s recommendations. Ultimately, this research seeks to revolutionize the treatment of TRD by employing advanced machine learning strategies and thorough data analysis, aimed at unraveling the complex neurobiological landscape of depression. This effort is expected to provide pivotal insights that will promote the development of more effective and individually tailored treatment strategies, thus addressing a significant void in current TRD management and potentially reducing its profound societal and economic burdens.Peer reviewe