Does the Expectation Hypothesis Hold at the Shortest End of the Term Structure?

This paper examines the predictability smile at the shortest end of the term structure. The existence of a predictability smile has been well documented: spreads between long rates and short rates are able to forecast subsequent movements in interest rates well, provided the horizon is three months or less or two years or more. The predictive power of the spread at the shortest maturities, however, has not been adequately investigated. This is a potential shortcoming of the existing literature as a projection of the predictability smile to the shorter maturities is not a guarantee that the expectations hypothesis holds. In Japan, a positive spread between the forward and the spot rates has insufficient predictive power for the future spot rate innovations, while a negative spread has near-perfect predictive ability. Further, we provide evidence that this result is not unique to Japan, as we find this "asymmetric predictability" to be a feature of the very short-term money markets of the U.S., U.K. and Italy.Term Structure, Predictability, Money Market

Classicalization of Quantum Fluctuation in Inflationary Universe

We discuss the classicalization of a quantum state induced by an environment in the inflationary stage of the universe. The classicalization is necessary for the homogeneous ground sate to become classical non-homogeneous one accompanied with the statistical fluctuation, which is a plausible candidate for the seeds of structure formation. Using simple models, we show that i) the two classicalization criteria, the classical correlation and quantum decoherence, are simultaneously satisfied by the environment and that ii) the power spectrum of the resultant statistical fluctuation depends upon the detail of the classicalization process. Especially, the result ii) means that, taking account of the classicalization process, the inflationary scenario does not necessarily predict the unique spectrum which is usually believed.Comment: 24 pages, Latex, 2 Postscript figure

The Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

This paper examines the effectiveness of public credit guarantee programs in not only increasing the availability of loans to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), but in also improving the ex-post performance of borrowing firms. Using a unique panel data set, we identify the effects of a massive credit guarantee program implemented by the Japanese government from 1998-2001. While we do find that the availability of loans increased for program participants, when loans were provided by undercapitalized banks the increased liquidity persisted for only a few years. Further, the ex-post performance of program participants, with the exception of firms with sizable net worth, deteriorated relative to their non-participating counterparts.Credit crunch, Small and Medium Enterprises, Loan guarantees, Matching estimation

On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate

In this paper we revisit the relationship between the forward interest rate and the spot interest rate at the shortest maturities. We introduce a new set of very short forward and spot interest rates that have not been fully utilized in the literature: the "tomorrow next" rate and the "spot next" rate, both of which have the same maturity as the overnight rate. Using these interest rates we demonstrate an asymmetric predictability of the forward interest rate. This asymmetry, which we find to be robust across different money markets, depends on whether the forward rate is greater or less than the current spot rate. Money market institutions, such as a penalty for end of day overdrafts, and the inability of securities firms to procure funds in certain markets may explain the asymmetry.

How Trade Credit Differs from Loans: Evidence from Japanese Trading Companies

In this paper we examine the determinants of the relationship between trade credit and bank loans. Previous studies of this relationship fall into two categories: (1) those emphasizing the difference between financial and non-financial institutions, and (2) those emphasizing the difference between credit instruments. By using data on trading companies that supply both loans and trade credit we are able to determine the relative importance of both institutional differences and instrumental differences for the trade credit-loan relationship. We find that trade credit and loans differ significantly even when offered by the same institutions, while loans extended by financial institutions and those extended by non-financial enterprises respond similarly.

Feedback-free optical cavity with self-resonating mechanism

We demonstrated the operation of a high finesse optical cavity without utilizing an active feedback system to stabilize the resonance. The effective finesse, which is a finesse including the overall system performance, of the cavity was measured to be $394,000 \pm 10,000$, and the laser power stored in the cavity was $2.52 \pm 0.13$ kW, which is approximately 187,000 times greater than the incident power to the cavity. The stored power was stabilized with a fluctuation of $1.7 \%$, and we confirmed continuous cavity operation for more than two hours. This result has the potential to trigger an innovative evolution for applications that use optical resonant cavities such as compact photon sources with laser-Compton scattering or cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy.Comment: 5 pages, 7 figure

Effectiveness of Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

From 1998-2001, the Japanese government, in an effort to stimulate the flow of funds to the small business sector, implemented a massive credit guarantee program that was unprecedented in both scale and scope. Because the program was accessible by nearly every small firm we are able to clearly identify the policy effect. The program, therefore, presents a unique opportunity to determine if government intervention can improve the efficiency of credit allocation among bank-dependent small businesses. Utilizing a new panel data set of Japanese firms, which covers the implementation period of the program, we empirically test the theoretical predictions of Mankiw's (1986) adverse selection model. The model of credit markets under asymmetric information allows us to investigate whether government credit programs do more to stimulate small business investment, or serve to worsen the adverse selection problems prevalent in credit markets. We find evidence consistent with the former hypothesis. Specifically, we find that (1) program participants significantly increase their leverage, especially their use of long-term loans, and (2) with the exception of high-risk firms, become more efficient.

Comparison of lens- and fiber-coupled CCD detectors for X-ray computed tomography

Lens- and fiber-coupled X-ray detectors with identical CCD chips were compared in their performance in high-resolution computed tomography experiments

Design of a Digital-Based, Multicomponent Nutrition Guidance System for Prevention of Early Childhood Obesity

Interventions targeting parenting focused modifiable factors to prevent obesity and promote healthy growth in the first 1000 days of life are needed. Scale-up of interventions to global populations is necessary to reverse trends in weight status among infants and toddlers, and large scale dissemination will require understanding of effective strategies. Utilizing nutrition education theories, this paper describes the design of a digital-based nutrition guidance system targeted to first-time mothers to prevent obesity during the first two years. The multicomponent system consists of scientifically substantiated content, tools, and telephone-based professional support delivered in an anticipatory and sequential manner via the internet, email, and text messages, focusing on educational modules addressing the modifiable factors associated with childhood obesity. Digital delivery formats leverage consumer media trends and provide the opportunity for scale-up, unavailable to previous interventions reliant on resource heavy clinic and home-based counseling. Designed initially for use in the United States, this system’s core features are applicable to all contexts and constitute an approach fostering healthy growth, not just obesity prevention. The multicomponent features, combined with a global concern for optimal growth and positive trends in mobile internet use, represent this system’s future potential to affect change in nutrition practice in developing countries