Aging and Asset Prices

This study quantifies the potential effects of aging on asset prices using a sophisticated overlapping generations (OLG) model with international diversification reflecting the global nature of capital markets. We show that the expected decline in the returns to capital will depend on the degree of international diversification. In the case of optimal diversification within the EU returns will drop by around one percentage point until 2035. The increasing risk aversion of an aging society will lead to differential effects on the returns on stocks and on bonds. We estimate the equity premium to rise by around 70 base points over the next 25 years. The sector that will be affected most by the demographic trend will be returns on real estate, however, only in the very long term. The main insight is that household size lags population size by about 20 years. One reason is that an older society features a smaller household size and thus, ceteris paribus, more households. Hence, housing demand will only begin to fall from 2025 onwards even if populations start declining today. Taken all evidence together, capital markets are not immune to demography. Rates of return will decline in response to demographic forces, but only very moderately. There is no scientific reason to assume that a major “asset meltdown” will occur when the babyboom generation retires.

Aging and asset prices

This study quantifies the potential effects of aging on asset prices using a sophisticated overlapping generations (OLG) model with international diversification reflecting the global nature of capital markets. We show that the expected decline in the returns to capital will depend on the degree of international diversification. In the case of optimal diversification within the EU returns will drop by around one percentage point until 2035. The increasing risk aversion of an aging society will lead to differential effects on the returns on stocks and on bonds. We estimate the equity premium to rise by around 70 base points over the next 25 years. The sector that will be affected most by the demographic trend will be returns on real estate, however, only in the very long term. The main insight is that household size lags population size by about 20 years. One reason is that an older society features a smaller household size and thus, ceteris paribus, more households. Hence, housing demand will only begin to fall from 2025 onwards even if populations start declining today. Taken all evidence together, capital markets are not immune to demography. Rates of return will decline in response to demographic forces, but only very moderately. There is no scientific reason to assume that a major “asset meltdown” will occur when the babyboom generation retires

Subthreshold Nanosecond Laser

Zusammenfassung Ziel Diese Studie zielt darauf ab, die klinische Entwicklung von Symptomen und Komplikationen bei Patienten mit früher und mittelschwerer AMD (altersbedingte Makuladegeneration) zu bewerten, die mit einer unterschwelligen Nanosekunden-Lasertherapie (SNL) behandelt werden. Die SNL-Therapie ist eine nicht-invasive, schmerzfreie Behandlungsmethode mit einem frequenzverdoppelten Nanosekunden-Pulslaser mit diskontinuierlicher Strahlenergieverteilung. Methoden An einer einzigen Institution wurde eine Kohort-studie durchgeführt. Zwischen 2015 und 2018 wurden 438 Patienten mit früher und mittlerer AMD (Alter 55-80) identifiziert. 160 Patienten wurden nach der Ausschlusskriterien identifiziert. Die Patienten, die der SNL- Therapie zustimmten, waren 64 Patienten, die anderen Patienten lehnten die SNL-Therapie ab und wurden als Kontrollgruppe eingeschlossen. Die Patienten mit Pseudodrusen wurden identifiziert und ausgeschlossen. Die primären Endpunkte waren die Verringerung der Anzahl und Drusenfläche als Umkehrung früher klinischer Indikatoren für AMD. Die sekundären Endpunkte waren die Veränderung der mittleren Sehschärfe nach dem 6. Monat und das Fortschreiten zu einer fortgeschrittenen altersbedingten Makuladegeneration (AMD) im behandelten Auge. Um teilnahmeberechtigt zu sein, sollten die Patienten zuvor keine anderen Augenerkrankungen haben, die die interessierenden Ergebnisse beeinflussen könnten, wie z. B. diabetische Retinopathie, Katarakt, schweres Glaukom oder Behandlung während der Studie. Ergebnisse Es wurde eine Umkehrung früher klinischer Anzeichen von AMD dokumentiert, die sich in einer Verringerung der Anzahl und Größe der Drusen zeigten (jeweils p < 0,001). Innerhalb des 6-monatigen Follow-up war die Progressionsrate der Drusengröße und -anzahl in der SNL-Gruppe signifikant niedriger (26 %) als in der Kontrollgruppe (69 %; p < 0,001). Keine Verbesserung der Sehschärfe (LogMar) wurde in der SNL-Gruppe im Vergleich zur Nicht- SNL-Gruppe dokumentiert (jeweils p 0,59). Fazit Diese Studie hebt die SNL-Therapie als mögliche Therapieoption hervor, um die frühen klinischen Anzeichen von AMD umzukehren. Die vorliegende Studie liefert neue Hinweise darauf, dass Patienten mit früher und mittlerer AMD von der minimal-invasiven SNL- Therapie profitieren könnte

Aging and Asset Prices: Report commissioned by the Observatoire de l’Epargne Européenne (OEE)

Aging has complex effects on global capital markets. If elderly people save less than younger people, an aging society saves less. This should increase interest rates since supply of funds gets tight. At the same time, the younger generation becomes ever smaller, so there is also less demand for new investment. The equilibrium effect is thus uncertain. Pessimists believe in the so-called “asset meltdown” hypothesis: households demand for financial assets will plummet between 2030 and 2040, when the baby boomers retire and die, asset values will melt down dramatically and the return on financial investments will fall sharply. Optimists stress economic mechanisms which soften or even reverse the negative impacts of aging on capital markets. One such important counter-mechanism is an aging society’s need for more capital since capital must increasingly replace labor and, as described, supply of funds will be scarce. This rising demand for real capital increases the return to capital at exactly the same time as pessimists fear the prospect of an asset meltdown. This study will look at the general equilibrium outcome according to several quantitative studies from France, Germany and the US, plus corroborating evidence on saving behavior and investment demand

Sizing of Hybrid Energy Storage Systems using Recurring Daily Patterns

A hybrid Energy Storage Systems (ESS) consists of two or more energy storage technologies, with different power and energy characteristics. Using a hybrid ESS, both high-frequency and low-frequency power variations can be addressed at the same time. For an accurate sizing of a hybrid ESS, the use of high-resolution data is required. However, high-resolution data over long periods leads to large data sets, which are difficult to handle. In this paper, an improved motif discovery algorithm is introduced to find the most recurring daily consumption patterns within the time series of interest. The most recurring pattern is selected as the representative of the time series for sizing the hybrid ESS. Next, a simple optimization framework is proposed for selecting the cut-off frequency of a low-pass filter, used for allocating the power to different storage technologies. Finally, the proposed sizing approach is applied for sizing a hybrid battery-flywheel ESS at four different low voltage distribution grids in southern Germany using real measurement data. It is demonstrated that a hybrid ESS, with the characteristics derived from the most recurring patterns only, can effectively provide their intended grid services for most of the days during the whole period of the time series

Sizing of Hybrid Energy Storage Systems using Recurring Daily Patterns

A hybrid Energy Storage Systems (ESS) consists of two or more energy storage technologies, with different power and energy characteristics. Using a hybrid ESS, both high-frequency and low-frequency power variations can be addressed at the same time. For an accurate sizing of a hybrid ESS, the use of high-resolution data is required. However, high-resolution data over long periods leads to large data sets, which are difficult to handle. In this paper, an improved motif discovery algorithm is introduced to find the most recurring daily consumption patterns within the time series of interest. The most recurring pattern is selected as the representative of the time series for sizing the hybrid ESS. Next, a simple optimization framework is proposed for selecting the cut-off frequency of a low-pass filter, used for allocating the power to different storage technologies. Finally, the proposed sizing approach is applied for sizing a hybrid battery-flywheel ESS at four different low voltage distribution grids in southern Germany using real measurement data. It is demonstrated that a hybrid ESS, with the characteristics derived from the most recurring patterns only, can effectively provide their intended grid services for most of the days during the whole period of the time series

Reconstruction of the pelvic ring using an autologous free non-vascularized fibula graft in a patient with benign fibrous histiocytoma

BACKGROUND: Benign fibrous histiocytomas (BFH) usually presents as a small benign lesion that predominantly occurs in the skin. Only few cases of BFH arising from bone have been reported, its occurrence in pelvic bones is even rarer. CASE PRESENTATION: A 34-year-old female presented with BFH at a rare anatomical location on both sides of the os ilium which was larger than earlier reported BFH of the bone. Surgical resection was performed successfully including resection of the inner pelvic ring and reconstruction of the linea terminalis using a non-vascularized fibular autograft. At 18 months after tumor resection and reconstruction of the pelvic ring, with interposition of a free vascularized fibula graft patient has an excellent clinical oncological and functional outcome. CONCLUSION: Non vascularized fibular autograft is a useful reconstructive procedure in select patients

Evading open science: The black box of student data collection

While Open Science has arguably initiated positive changes at some stages of the research process (e.g., increasing transparency through preregistration), problematic behaviors during data collection are still almost impossible to detect and pose a great risk to the validity and integrity of psychological research—especially, when researchers use data collected by others (e.g., students). Exploring students’ and supervisors’ perspectives, the present registered report enlightens this “black box” of student data collection, focusing on questionable research practices and research misconduct (QRP/M). The majority of students did not report having engaged in any problematic behaviors during data collection, but some QRP/M—ranging from somewhat questionable to highly fraudulent—seem quite common (e.g., telling participants the hypothesis beforehand, participating in one’s own survey). We provide an overview of students’ reported and supervisors’ suspected data collection QRP/M, explore potential drivers for these behaviors based on the fraud triangle model (including pressures, opportunities, and rationalizations), and report how students and supervisors perceive the eligibility of student data for further uses (e.g., scientific publications). Moreover, we explore the role of the student-supervisor relationship (e.g., communication and expectations) and Open Science practices in student projects. In summary, our findings suggest the potential scientific value of data from student projects. Fostering transparent communication regarding expectations, experiences, and intentions between supervisors and students might further contribute to strengthening this prospect