Self-normalized Cram\'{e}r type moderate deviations for the maximum of sums

Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be independent random variables with zero means and finite variances, and let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ and $V^2_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX^2_i$. A Cram\'{e}r type moderate deviation for the maximum of the self-normalized sums $\max_{1\leq k\leq n}S_k/V_n$ is obtained. In particular, for identically distributed $X_1,X_2,...,$ it is proved that $P(\max_{1\leq k\leq n}S_k\geq xV_n)/(1-\Phi (x))\rightarrow2$ uniformly for $0<x\leq\mathrm{o}(n^{1/6})$ under the optimal finite third moment of $X_1$.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ415 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Multimodal Federated Learning via Contrastive Representation Ensemble

With the increasing amount of multimedia data on modern mobile systems and IoT infrastructures, harnessing these rich multimodal data without breaching user privacy becomes a critical issue. Federated learning (FL) serves as a privacy-conscious alternative to centralized machine learning. However, existing FL methods extended to multimodal data all rely on model aggregation on single modality level, which restrains the server and clients to have identical model architecture for each modality. This limits the global model in terms of both model complexity and data capacity, not to mention task diversity. In this work, we propose Contrastive Representation Ensemble and Aggregation for Multimodal FL (CreamFL), a multimodal federated learning framework that enables training larger server models from clients with heterogeneous model architectures and data modalities, while only communicating knowledge on public dataset. To achieve better multimodal representation fusion, we design a global-local cross-modal ensemble strategy to aggregate client representations. To mitigate local model drift caused by two unprecedented heterogeneous factors stemming from multimodal discrepancy (modality gap and task gap), we further propose two inter-modal and intra-modal contrasts to regularize local training, which complements information of the absent modality for uni-modal clients and regularizes local clients to head towards global consensus. Thorough evaluations and ablation studies on image-text retrieval and visual question answering tasks showcase the superiority of CreamFL over state-of-the-art FL methods and its practical value.Comment: ICLR 2023. Code is available at https://github.com/FLAIR-THU/CreamF

Simultaneous Confidence Bands in Nonlinear Regression Models with Nonstationarity

We consider nonparametric estimation of the regression function g(·) in a nonlinear regression model Yt = g(Xt) + σ(Xt)et, where the regressor (Xt) is a nonstationary unit root process and the error (et) is a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. With proper centering and scaling, the maximum deviation of the local linear estimator of the regression function g is shown to be asymptotically Gumbel. Based on the latter result, we construct simultaneous confidence bands for g, which can be used to test patterns of the regression function. Our results substantially extend existing ones which typically require independent or stationary weakly dependent regressors. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample behavior of the proposed approach via the simulated and real data examples

Multimodal Molecular Pretraining via Modality Blending

Self-supervised learning has recently gained growing interest in molecular modeling for scientific tasks such as AI-assisted drug discovery. Current studies consider leveraging both 2D and 3D molecular structures for representation learning. However, relying on straightforward alignment strategies that treat each modality separately, these methods fail to exploit the intrinsic correlation between 2D and 3D representations that reflect the underlying structural characteristics of molecules, and only perform coarse-grained molecule-level alignment. To derive fine-grained alignment and promote structural molecule understanding, we introduce an atomic-relation level "blend-then-predict" self-supervised learning approach, MoleBLEND, which first blends atom relations represented by different modalities into one unified relation matrix for joint encoding, then recovers modality-specific information for 2D and 3D structures individually. By treating atom relationships as anchors, MoleBLEND organically aligns and integrates visually dissimilar 2D and 3D modalities of the same molecule at fine-grained atomic level, painting a more comprehensive depiction of each molecule. Extensive experiments show that MoleBLEND achieves state-of-the-art performance across major 2D/3D molecular benchmarks. We further provide theoretical insights from the perspective of mutual-information maximization, demonstrating that our method unifies contrastive, generative (cross-modality prediction) and mask-then-predict (single-modality prediction) objectives into one single cohesive framework

Exploring the Impact of the Digital Economy on Carbon Emission Efficiency Under Factor Misallocation Constraints: New Insights From China

The digital economy has introduced far-reaching innovations in the fields of government governance, enterprise production, and social operation. How to motivate the economic development mode towards a low-carbon and greenway transformation through the digital economy is a major issue concerning the Chinese government. However, there is scarce evidence to interpret the role mechanism of the digital economy on carbon emission efficiency from the factor misallocation scenario. Taking a database from 30 provincial-level administrative regions for the period from 2011 to 2019 in China as an example, the paper examines the effect of the digital economy on carbon emission efficiency, as well as explores its role mechanism deeply in terms of factor misallocation (capital misallocation and labor misallocation). The results suggest that there is a significant potential for the digital economy to contribute to carbon emission efficiency, as well as this finding, is valid when considering both the endogeneity issue and a series of robustness checks. Also, the digital economy can significantly contribute to carbon efficiency in both southern and northern regions, but more strongly in the northern region. Besides, the digital economy can inhibit the factor misallocation (labor misallocation and capital misallocation) level which ultimately improves carbon emission efficiency. Finally, as a digital economy, it can positively impact carbon efficiency in the long run by mitigating factor misallocation (labor misallocation and capital misallocation)

Objective identification and forecast method of PM2.5 pollution based on medium- and long-term ensemble forecasts in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas

Accurate long-term forecasts of PM2.5 pollution are essential to mitigating health risks and formulating pollutant control strategies for decision-makers in China. In this study, an objective identification and forecast method for PM2.5 pollution (OIF-PM2.5) is developed based on medium- and long-term ensemble forecasts of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas. The results show that the observed PM2.5 pollution ratio increases with the aggravating PM2.5 pollution. For example, the ratio of meteorological stations with heavy pollution is 4.4 times that of light pollution and 3.9 times that of moderate pollution. In addition, the correlation coefficients between observations and forecasts are above 0.60 for all forecast leading times. Statistical results show that the average accuracy for forecasts with the leading times of 1–3 days, 4–7 days, and 8–15 days are 74.1%, 81.3%, and 72.9% respectively, indicating that the OIF-PM2.5 method has a high reliability in forecasts with the leading times of 1–15 days. The OIF-PM2.5 method is further applied in a severe PM2.5 pollution episode in the December of 2021, and the average forecast precision in forecasts with the leading times of 6–8 days reaches as high as 100%, showing a certain reference value for PM2.5 forecasts

Generative Pretraining in Multimodality

We present Emu, a Transformer-based multimodal foundation model, which can seamlessly generate images and texts in multimodal context. This omnivore model can take in any single-modality or multimodal data input indiscriminately (e.g., interleaved image, text and video) through a one-model-for-all autoregressive training process. First, visual signals are encoded into embeddings, and together with text tokens form an interleaved input sequence. Emu is then end-to-end trained with a unified objective of classifying the next text token or regressing the next visual embedding in the multimodal sequence. This versatile multimodality empowers the exploration of diverse pretraining data sources at scale, such as videos with interleaved frames and text, webpages with interleaved images and text, as well as web-scale image-text pairs and video-text pairs. Emu can serve as a generalist multimodal interface for both image-to-text and text-to-image tasks, and supports in-context image and text generation. Across a broad range of zero-shot/few-shot tasks including image captioning, visual question answering, video question answering and text-to-image generation, Emu demonstrates superb performance compared to state-of-the-art large multimodal models. Extended capabilities such as multimodal assistants via instruction tuning are also demonstrated with impressive performance.Comment: Code and Demo: https://github.com/baaivision/Em

Tidal variation shaped microplastic enrichment patterns in mangrove blue carbon ecosystem of northern Beibu Gulf, China

Mangroves are considered to be a sink for microplastics (MPs) due to their unique characteristics. Previous studies mainly focused on the spatial distribution of MPs, but few researchers have addressed the influence of tidal variation on this distribution, especially since the MP total number in mangroves was unknown. In this study, surface sediment samples were collected in mangroves from the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea, and the abundance, composition, and number of MPs were investigated. The results showed that MPs were widely present in all mangrove sediment samples, with abundances ranging from 26.67 ± 9.43 to 239.94 ± 37.80 items/kg. The distribution of MPs was heterogeneous among different sampling sites, with the highest levels in the Shankou (SK) area. The MP abundance in the same mangrove forest gradually increased from the low tidal zone to the high tidal zone, with the enrichment factor ranging from 1.50 to 4.00. The MP abundance was significantly correlated with particulate organic carbon (POC) (n = 12, R = 0.664, p &lt; 0.05). Results showed that mangroves had an interception effect on MPs and factors affecting MP distribution in mangrove sediments included not only tides but also human activities, such as aquaculture, agriculture, and residential life. Finally, this paper estimated the MP total number in mangroves at different sampling areas and tidal zones, and the middle tidal zone was considered to be more accurate for MP pollution assessment in mangroves