Analysis and Simulation of Theme Park Queuing System

[[abstract]]It has been an important issue to improve customers’ satisfaction in theme parks for which become a major role of recreation in our daily life. Waiting for rides has been identified as a factor decreasing satisfaction. A previous study indicated that a virtual queuing system can reduce the total waiting time so the customer’s satisfaction is improved. The results from a simulation tool Arena show that an index Satisfaction Value (SV) increases when the queuing system is introduced. In this study, a more complex scenario of theme park queuing system (TPQS) is first designed, followed by comparison of a number of combinations of the rides with various waiting time and distribution factors. Analysis is also carried out.[[sponsorship]]早稻田大學; 高雄應用科技大學[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencedate]]20140827[[booktype]]電子版[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]北九州市, 日

Tests d'ajustement reposant sur les méthodes d'ondelettes dans les modèles ARMA avec un terme d'erreur qui est une différence de martingales conditionnellement hétéroscédastique

L'étude porte sur le développement d'une procédure à base d'ondelettes afin de tester la qualité d'ajustement d'un modèle autorégressif moyenne mobile (ARMA), où l'innovation est une différence de martingales avec hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle. Dans le cadre du modèle ARMA semi-fort, les innovations ne sont pas indépendantes, mais sont présumées des différences de martingales, voir par exemple Francq et al. (2005). Conséquemment, les distributions asymptotiques de type chi-carré pour les statistiques de test de Box-Pierce-Ljung, établies sous l'hypothèse d'indépendance du terme d'erreur, ne sont pas forcément adéquates. De plus, les irrégularités saisonnières dans la densité spectrale de l'innovation pourraient affecter la puissance des tests classiques. Ceci motive l'étude des méthodes d'ondelettes dans le présent contexte, où le terme d'erreur est présumé plus général que composé de variables aléatoires indépendantes. Afin de trouver la distribution asymptotique de nouveaux tests reposant sur les ondelettes, nous commençons par établir la distribution asymptotique des autocovariances résiduelles basées sur les résidus du modèle ajusté. La densité spectrale exprimée en base d'ondelettes repose sur des coefficients, dits coefficients d'ondelettes. Nous trouvons les distributions asymptotiques des versions empiriques de ces coefficients d'ondelettes lorsque le modèle ARMA est correctement spécifié. Nous montrons que les variances et covariances asymptotiques des coefficients d'ondelettes empiriques dépendent des coefficients du modèle ARMA ainsi que de la structure de covariance du moment d'ordre deux des innovations. Ces résultats sont utilisés pour construire de nouveaux tests. Nous démontrons que ces statistiques de tests suivent des distributions de type chi-carré asymptotiquement. La performance des statistiques de test proposées pour plusieurs tailles d'échantillon sont étudiées par des simulations de Monte Carlo. Les résultats de nos simulations suggèrent que les nouveaux tests convergent raisonnablement rapidement vers des distributions de type chi-carré, et qu'ils offrent des propriétés de puissance avantageuses comparativement aux statistiques de test classiques, au moins pour certains modèles. Un exemple avec des données réelles illustre la méthodologie.Wavelet-based test procedures for lack-of-fit in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models with conditionally heteroskedastic martingale difference innovations are investigated. In the framework of so-called semistrong ARMA models, the innovations are not independent, but are presumed a martingale difference, see for example Francq et al. (2005). Consequently, the Chi-square distributions of the popular Box-Pierce-Ljung test statistics, established under the hypothesis of independence in the error term, are not necessarily adequate. Moreover, the seasonal irregularities in the spectral density of the innovation can affect the power of the classical tests. This provides motivations for studying wavelet methods in the current context, where the error term is presumed more general than independent random variables. To find the asymptotic distribution of the new wavelet-based tests, we begin by establishing the asymptotic distribution of the residual autocovariances based on the residuals of the fitted model. The wavelet-based spectral density relies on certain coefficients, the so-called wavelet coefficients. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the empirical versions of those wavelet coefficients when the ARMA model is correctly specified. We show that the asymptotic variances and covariances of the empirical wavelet coefficients depend on both the coefficients of the ARMA model, and the covariance structure of the second moment of the innovations. Those results are used to construct new tests. We demonstrate that those test statistics have Chi-square distributions asymptotically. The performances of the proposed test statistics are investigated via Monte Carlo simulation studies for several sample sizes. The results of our simulations suggest that the new tests converge reasonably quickly to the Chi-square distributions and offer favorable power properties over the classical statistical tests, at least in some models. An example with real data illustrates the methodology

A Real-time Decision Support with Cloud Computing Based Fire Evacuation System

[[abstract]]An effective evacuation system can help people escape from building fire. Most evacuation systems consist of a indoor positioning system, a back-end database, and a display device with calculation and display software. However, very few of them can smartly determine which evacuation route is the best decision. If all the locations of the evacuating people can be simultaneously determined, the best evacuation routes can be decided to avoid congestion, and survival rate can increase. The previous radio frequency identification (RFID) based evacuation system focused on detecting the RFID tags using a mobile phone in order to determine the location of the mobile phone user so that an evacuation route can be displayed. However, the system is available for one person regardless of the number of evacuating people or exits. This study is based on the previous RFID based evacuation system investigating the best evacuation routes. The system introduces cloud computing that calculates for positioning the evacuating people and determining the optimum evacuation routes for each of them. The system will be implemented at Tamkang University on Lanyang campus.[[notice]]補正完畢[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencedate]]20111024~20111026[[booktype]]紙本;電子版[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]Macao[[countrycodes]]MA

Extreme Precipitation Estimation with Typhoon Morakot Using Frequency and Spatial Analysis

Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan and produced copious amounts of precipitation in 2009. From the point view of hydrological statistics, the impact of the precipitation from typhoon Morakot using a frequency analysis can be analyzed and discussed. The frequency curve, which was fitted mathematically to historical observed data, can be used to estimate the probability of exceedance for runoff events of a certain magnitude. The study integrates frequency analysis and spatial analysis to assess the effect of Typhoon Morakot event on rainfall frequency in the Gaoping River basin of southern Taiwan. First, extreme rainfall data are collected at sixteen stations for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours and then an appropriate probability distribution was selected to analyze the impact of the extreme hydrological event. Spatial rainfall patterns for a return period of 200-yr with 24-hr duration with and without Typhoon Morakot are estimated. Results show that the rainfall amount is significantly different with long duration with and without the event for frequency analysis. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows that extreme rainfall for a return period of 200-yr is highly dependent on topography and is smaller in the southwest than that in the east. The results not only demonstrate the distinct effect of Typhoon Morakot on frequency analysis, but also could provide reference in future planning of hydrological engineering

Nonstoichiometric doping and Bi antisite defect in single crystal Bi2Se3

We studied the defects of Bi2Se3 generated from Bridgman growth of stoichiometric and nonstoichiometric self-fluxes. Growth habit, lattice size, and transport properties are strongly affected by the types of defect generated. Major defect types of Bi_Se antisite and partial Bi_2-layer intercalation are identified through combined studies of direct atomic-scale imaging with scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) in conjunction with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (STEM-EDX), X-ray diffraction, and Hall effect measurements. We propose a consistent explanation to the origin of defect type, growth morphology, and transport property.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Curcumin Induces p53-Null Hepatoma Cell Line Hep3B Apoptosis through the AKT-PTEN-FOXO4 Pathway

Objective. Curcumin (diferuloylmethane) is a yellow-colored polyphenol with antiproliferative and proapoptotic activities to various types of cancer cells. This study explored the mechanism by which curcumin induces p53-null hepatoma cell apoptosis. Results. AKT, FOXO1, and FOXO3 proteins were downregulated after curcumin treatment. Conversely, PTEN was upregulated. Subcellular fractionations revealed that the FOXO4 protein translocated from cytosol into the nucleus after curcumin treatment. Overexpression of FOXO4 increases the sensitivity of Hep3B cells to curcumin. Knockdown of the FOXO4 gene by siRNA inhibits the proapoptotic effects of curcumin on Hep3B cell. Conclusions. This study revealed the AKT/PTEN/FOXO4 pathway as a potential candidate of target for treatment of p53-null liver cancers