Статистический эксперимент для проверки адекватности парных связей на примере оценки влияния секьюритизации на финансовые показатели деятельности российских банков

The purpose of this article is to show the role of statistical hypothesis when testing the significance of the results of statistical studies and formulating conclusions based on them. The paper broaches controversial issues related to the influence of the securitization operations (which are widely used in Russia in recent years as a tool to reduce risks) on the main financial indicators of banks’ activities. The authors argue that although the securitization, has proved its effectiveness in the implementation of large-scale government programs to attract capital into the infrastructure, it still carries some unforeseen problems for the banks, which become obstacles in their development. In the search for answers to these questions as a check on were put forward various research hypotheses on the impact of securitization on the financial performance of banks in the Russian Federation. The authors tested the hypothesis using nonparametric statistical tools: G criterion T test and Wilcoxon T-test (signed rank). Based on the conducted research it is concluded that securitization has an impact on the performance of banks by increasing their net income and improving the return on equity, however this result was observed only in highest rated banks, while smaller players in the lending market in the Russian Federation that do not have high credit ratings are not ready for effective implementation of securitization and it is move likely that it will not be beneficial for their performance. The authors demonstrate the possible consequences of errors frequently encountered in applied research, such as testing the null hypothesis without alternative data testing.Цель статьи - продемонстрировать роль статистических гипотез при проверке значимости результатов статистических исследований и формулировке выводов на их основе. Авторы затрагивают дискуссионные вопросы, связанные с влиянием банковских операций секьюритизации, которые получили широкое распространение в России в последнее время в качестве инструмента снижения рисков, на основные финансовые показатели деятельности банков. Сформулирован тезис о том, что секьюритизация, доказавшая свою эффективность в осуществлении масштабных государственных программ для привлечения капитала в инфраструктуру, несет в себе и ряд неочевидных проблем для банков, которые становятся препятствием для их развития. В в ходе поиска ответа на поставленные вопросы для проверки выдвинуты различные гипотезы исследования о влиянии процесса секьюритизации на финансовые показатели банков в Российской Федерации. Тестирование гипотез авторы проводят с помощью непараметрического статистического инструментария: G-критерия знаков, T-критерия Вилкоксона. На основании проведенного исследования делается вывод о том, что секьюритизация оказывает влияние на показатели деятельности банков, увеличивая их чистую прибыль и улучшая показатель рентабельности собственного капитала, но этот результат отмечается только у высококлассных банков, а мелкие игроки на рынке кредитования в Российской Федерации, не обладающие высокими кредитными рейтингами, еще не готовы к эффективному проведению секьюритизации, и, с большой долей вероятности, она не окажет положительного влияния на эффективность их деятельности. Авторы наглядно демонстрируют возможные последствия ошибки, часто встречающейся в прикладных исследованиях, -проверки нулевых гипотез без тестирования альтернативных данных

Public Private Partnership in Social Sphere: Models Review

Growing social pressure on economy is a global trend nowadays due to constant increase of elderly population not accompanied by respective world economy growth. One of ways to respond to global challenges became new model of social & infrastructure investments called Public Private Partnership. In this article authors analyze specifics of Public Private Partnerships in social sphere and reasons why they came up to the world's agenda. Such areas as health protection, sports, education, culture, utilities are treated as social. Main goal of majority of partnerships is social as well and due to this such projects have low income rates and high risks associated. Nevertheless, in the article models of effective Public Private Partnerships are illustrated and analyzed in depth. The most promising models out of all options are selected and conclusion for the need of special tax regulation for the PPP projects is made. Keywords: problem of elderly population, effective models of social investments, Public Private Partnership (PPP) JEL Classifications: H51, H53, H54, M14, M2

Methodological Approaches to Estimation of Energy Efficiency within the Framework of the Concept of Green Economy and Sustainable Development

The transition of the world developed countries to a "low-carbon" economy and "green" economic growth leads to the fact that energy indicators are actively included in the system of environmental and economic assessments at the present stage of development. Taking into account the synergetic approach required in the analysis of energy efficiency, reflecting its impact on three main areas of activity: economic, social and environmental, we consider the index of adjusted net savings to be the final link of the World Bank's "green" indicators. Based on the analysis, it is argued that there are fundamental differences in economic policy regarding energy efficiency for different groups of countries. The experience of leading foreign countries in the field of energy efficiency is summarized, such as Germany and Japan, which occupy leading positions in the energy efficiency rating. However, the authors pay special attention to two more countries: Finland and China. Keywords: green economy, green growth, energy saving, green accounts, energy efficiency, low-carbon economy JEL Classification: Q

Structural Contradiction of Economic Growth as a Threat to the Human Capital Reproduction Process in Russia

The paper reviews the short- and long-term impact of economic growth on the human capital reproduction process. The economic growth is presented as a total of the three constituent parts: structural (potential), cyclical and conjunctural components. Based on the 1999-2013 data, the individual effect of each component of economic growth on qualitative and quantitative indicators of human capital is analyzed. It is shown that to date no conditions for economic growth in Russia through expanded human capital reproduction have been created. Keywords: Economic growth, human capital reproduction, “resource curse”, balance of the national economic system. JEL Classifications: O10, O40, E2