Climate Change and Tourism Features in the Caribbean

The tourist industry is widely recognised as the key engine of growth in the Caribbean, representing a significant source of foreign exchange earnings and employment. The present study provides an assessment of how climate change could likely impact on regional tourism features. The analysis is undertaken by comparing historical tourism climatic indices to those obtained under the various climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the biggest losers, in terms of deteriorations in their climatic features, are likely to be the Caribbean, Central America and South America.Tourism climate index; Climate Change; Caribbean

Credit Booms and Busts in the Caribbean

Since 1970, private sector credit has grown quite rapidly in the Caribbean. More recently, between 2004 and 2006, total real credit in the Caribbean has risen by a cumulative 55.7 percent, or approximately 19 percent per annum. In some countries, the rate of expansion has even been stronger, which is of concern given the likely negative macroeconomic consequences of credit booms. This paper attempts to identify the factors that have led to credit booms and conversely busts in the Caribbean, employing annual data for 13 Caribbean countries covering the period 1970 to 2006 in the analysis. This study employs a panel count data regression approach. Three key groups of variables are considered: (1) macroeconomic developments; (2) macroeconomic policy, and (3) external shocks. The reported results suggest that macroeconomic developments were the main determinants of credit booms in the Caribbean, with low inflation, high growth in GDP per capita, investment booms as well as less developed financial systems leading to the emergence of credit booms and conversely for busts.Credit Booms, Credit Busts, Caribbean, Count Data Model

Climate Change and Tourism Features in the Caribbean

The tourist industry is widely recognised as the key engine of growth in the Caribbean, representing a significant source of foreign exchange earnings and employment. The present study provides an assessment of how climate change could likely impact on regional tourism features. The analysis is undertaken by comparing historical tourism climatic indices to those obtained under the various climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the biggest losers, in terms of deteriorations in their climatic features, are likely to be the Caribbean, Central America and South America

Credit Booms and Busts in the Caribbean

Since 1970, private sector credit has grown quite rapidly in the Caribbean. More recently, between 2004 and 2006, total real credit in the Caribbean has risen by a cumulative 55.7 percent, or approximately 19 percent per annum. In some countries, the rate of expansion has even been stronger, which is of concern given the likely negative macroeconomic consequences of credit booms. This paper attempts to identify the factors that have led to credit booms and conversely busts in the Caribbean, employing annual data for 13 Caribbean countries covering the period 1970 to 2006 in the analysis. This study employs a panel count data regression approach. Three key groups of variables are considered: (1) macroeconomic developments; (2) macroeconomic policy, and (3) external shocks. The reported results suggest that macroeconomic developments were the main determinants of credit booms in the Caribbean, with low inflation, high growth in GDP per capita, investment booms as well as less developed financial systems leading to the emergence of credit booms and conversely for busts

Building the resilience of small states : a revised framework

This study presents a detailed literature review on economic vulnerability and resilience with a focus on small states. It also proposes a revised vulnerability/resilience framework, building on the work of Lino Briguglio et al. (2009), who defined vulnerability in terms of inherent features which render countries exposed to external shocks, and resilience in terms of policy-induced measures that enable countries to minimise or withstand the harmful effect of such shocks. The juxtaposition of vulnerability and resilience, as measured by the vulnerability and resilience indices, would indicate the overall risk of an economy being harmed by external shocks. The major implication of the vulnerability/ resilience framework is that small states can succeed economically in spite of their economic vulnerability if they adopt policies conducive to good economic, social, political and environmental governance.peer-reviewe

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR: THE CASE OF THE SMALL DEVELOPING COUNTRY

Historically, the lack of competition in developing countries has resulted in highly concentrated domestic industries that suffer from diseconomies of scale but prosper behind high walls of protection. Liberalization is expected to reverse this trend but at what cost? This article utilizes an import demand framework to examine the potential impact of trade liberalization on the manufacturing sector in the Caribbean using the case of Barbados. The results indicate that the manufacturing industry could encounter tremendous price competition, which could compromise the future survival of these industries. The study recommends that industries reorganize production processes to increase efficiency, which will allow them to compete effectively in the new global trading environment. These results may also be applicable to the wider Caribbean. Copyright 2002 Western Economic Association International.