Correlation matrix for covariates tabulated in the analysis (left) and principal components analysis results (right).

Scree plot (right) for total variance explained for included variables in principal components analysis (CKD, Diabetes, Stroke, HHD). CKD, Chronic Kidney Disease. DM, Diabetes mellitus. HHD, Hypertensive Heart Disease, HIV, Human Immunodeficiency Virus. KMO, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test. BST, Bartlett’s Sphericity Test.</p

Simple univariate linear regression models for the correlation between covariates and OPD Adjusted (OPD divided by fertility rate).

x-axis expressed as proportion (between 0 and 1) except for GDP per capita (expressed as $US). P-values calculated for regression model. Y-axis transformed to the logit scale. Note that the y-axis intervals are not evenly spaced. Orphans per death adjusted = orphans per death divided by national average total fertility rate. Solid lines represent regression prediction, grey bands represent 95$US.</p

Kernel density functions for OPD by GDP category (Left) and boxplots of OPD by GDP category (right).

GDP categories calculated as countries with a GDP below the median value in the study data, and those countries with a GDP above the median value. Median value = US $12,939 per capita.</p

Multiple linear regression model for OPD adjusted with a logit link function.

Multiple linear regression model for OPD adjusted with a logit link function.</p

Association between 2^nd dose vaccination coverage and OPD by region.

Correlation coefficient and p-value for univariate linear regression models displayed in text in main panels. Gray bands represent 95% confidence intervals. Vaccination data as of 1st December 2021.</p

Distribution of orphans per death by country.

Countries organized by WHO region.</p