Partisan Goals and Electoral Interests: Brazilian Economic Reforms under Lula

Almost everyone was surprised by the reforms proposed by the Lula administration in Brazil. Once in power, they proposed reforms they voted against when in opposition. We analyze a game in which political parties, with partisan and electoral interest, try to approve reforms that benefit the majority of population but face an opposition with substantial power to determine their fate. The Opposition’s behavior may lead to different equilibrium: approval of the reform after an electoral cycle, with the party initially against the reform making it their own; not approval, with the parties taking turn in power; not approval, with the party that originally proposed the reform remaining in power, but with the deterioration of the economic situationEconomic Reforms, Electoral Interest, Partisan Interest

Data from: Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

Brazil currently has one of the fastest growing SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in the world. Owing to limited available data, assessments of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1–1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within-state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average travelled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil, and provide evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in the country