Analisis Kurs Valas dengan Pendekatan Box-Jenkins: Studi Empiris Rp/Us$ dan Rp/Yen, 1983.2 – 2000.3

This paper attempts to analyse Rp/US$and Rp/Yen exchange rates over the period 1983.2-2000.3. Using the Box-Jenkins approach, we tested various models to explain the behavior of Rp/US$ and Rp/Yen. The results supported both interest rate parity and purchasing power parity hypotheses for Rp/US$ exchange rates. In the case of Rp/Yen, however, the results supported purchasing-power parity hypothesis rather than that of interest rate parity. Moreover, Frenkel-Bilson, Dornbusch-Frankel, Hooper-Morton model cannot be applied to analyse Rp/Yen fluctuation. This study, accordingly, calls an urgency to stop a Bank Indonesia\u27s policy to restrict foreign exchange transactions to reduce the fluctuation of rupiah, as stated in Peraturan Bank Indonesia (PBI) No. 3/3/PBI/2001, since 12 Januari 2001

Physical Characteristics and Disaster Risk Perception Correlation at Bantul Regency

This paper analyses the correlation between vulnerable areas and residents risk perception. For such purpose, it uses descriptive and correlation analysis. The mapping of the vulnerable area is based on the vulnerability levels, which were analyzed with the Geographical Information System (GIS). The GIS and correlation analysis show that education level and income rate of the respondents have negative correlations with level of vulnerability in the area. The perception index has a positive correlation with level of vulnerable in the area. These results are different from the degree of the risk averse variable that does not significantly correlate with the level of hazardous area. Keywords: earthquake risk perception, economic valuation, GISJEL Classification Numbers: Q54, R29AbstrakMakalah ini menganalisis korelasi antara daerah yang rentan bencana dan persepsi mereka terhadap risiko.Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis deskriptif dan korelasi. Pemetaan daerah rawan didasarkan pada tingkat kerentanan, yang dianalisis dengan Sistem Informasi Geografis (SIG). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pendidikan dan tingkat pendapatan responden memiliki korelasi negatif dengan tingkat kerentanan di daerah. Indeks Persepsi memiliki korelasi positif dengan tingkat kerentanan suatu daerah. Hasil ini berbeda dengan tingkat risiko variabel yang tidak signifikan berkorelasi dengan tingkat daerah bahaya.Keywords: Persepsi risiko gempa bumi, penilaian ekonomi, SIGJEL Classification Numbers: Q54, R2