Methodological aspects of recent climate change damage cost studies

This paper discusses methodological aspects of recent climate change damage studies. Assessing the total and/or marginal damage costs of environmental change is often difficult and it is certainly difficult in the case of climate change. A major obstacle is the uncertainty on the physical impacts of climate change, especially related to extreme events and so-called ‘low-probability high-impact’ scenarios. The subsequent transposition of physical impacts into monetary terms is also a delicate step, given that climate change impacts involve both market and non-market goods and services, covering health, environmental and social values, and that impacts may be distant in time and space. The complexity of climate change cost assessment thus involves several crucial dimensions, including non-market evaluation, risk and uncertainty, baseline definition, equity and discounting, further elaborated in this paper in the course of the overview of the literature and of the overview and evaluation of the key methodological issues.Climate change damage costs, cost of inaction, methodological aspects, risk and uncertainty, discounting, equity

The potential of water markets to allocate water between industry, agriculture, and public water utilities as an adaptation mechanism to climate change

One of the climate change scenarios that have been developed for the Netherlands predicts hotter and drier summers and a substantial drop in river discharge. This might lead to water scarcity with detrimental economic and environmental effects. Among the possible adaptation responses to climate change-induced water scarcity, the re-allocation of water resources among competing uses should also be considered. In this paper, we extend and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential of water markets (water allocation according to its shadow price) to guide the allocation of scarce water across agriculture, manufacturing, and public water supply. We develop four scenarios in which the scope of water markets is increased from industry-specific to economy-wide. The results show that the agricultural sector bears nearly all of the losses from a new water-scarce climate, while the manufacturing sectors are able to mitigate their losses to a large extent by technical measures. Extending the scope of water markets unambiguously increases economic output and results in a re-allocation of water to the manufacturing sector from the agricultural sector and from public water services. If, perhaps for political reasons, public water services are excluded from water trading, water is re-allocated from agriculture to manufacturing. Depending on which sectors are included, the construction of a water market can have negative or positive effects on a sector’s output, and although the implementation of water markets may be positive for overall economic output and can hence assist adaptation, the effect on vulnerable or societally sensitive economic sectors, such as public water, should be taken into account when implementing such a market

Gezonde Buxusteelt

De Buxusteelt is binnen de boomteelt een grote teelt, bijna 10% van het areaal boomkwekerij. Enkele jaren geleden sloeg de Buxustaksterfte, veroorzaakt door de schimmel Cylindrocladium buxicola(= Cylindrocladium pseudonaviculatum) ernstig toe. In vorige Buxusprojecten die werden gefinancierd door het Productschap Tuinbouw (PT) is veel kennis opgedaan over de biologie van de schimmel, over geschikte gewasbeschermingsmiddelen en zijn effectieve bestrijdingsstrategieën ontwikkeld. Echter, voor een goede beheersing van Cylindrocladium buxicola in Buxus zijn in de praktijk vaak nog veel bespuitingen nodig. Het gebruik van een waarschuwingsmodel kan het aantal bespuitingen omlaag brengen. Daarnaast is gebleken dat de spuittechniek waarmee het binnenste van de plant en de onderkant van de bladeren goed zijn te raken met gewasbeschermingsmiddelen een bepalende factor kan zijn. Naast Cylindrocladium is er ook een andere ziekte in Buxus die steeds meer van zich doet spreken, nl. stambasisrot veroorzaakt door Phytophthora. Op enkele bedrijven is al forse schade geleden door deze ziekte. De vrees is dat Phytophthora snel een nieuwe bedreiging kan worden. In dit project is ervaring opgedaan met een grondbemonsteringstechniek en is een middelentoetsing uitgevoerd. Het doel van dit project is om taksterfte en bladval, veroorzaakt door Cylindrocladium en stambasisrot, veroorzaakt door Phytophthora, duurzaam te beheersen zodat een gezonde Buxusplant kan worden geteeld

Time to full enteral feeding after necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm-born children is related to neurodevelopment at 2-3 years of age

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is associated with poorer neurodevelopment. It is, however, unclear which factors besides surgery affect neurodevelopment in preterm-born children surviving NEC. AIMS: We determined whether time to full enteral feeding (FEFt) and post-NEC complications after NEC were associated with neurodevelopment. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SUBJECTS: Two to three year old preterm-born children who survived NEC (Bells stage ≥ 2). We categorized children in two groups, one group shorter and equal and one group longer than the group's median FEFt. Post-NEC complications included recurrent NEC and/or post-NEC stricture. OUTCOME MEASURES: Bayley Scales of Infants and Toddler Development III (Bayley-III) and Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). Associations between Bayley-III and CBCL scores with FEFt and Post-NEC complications were determined using linear regression analyses, adjusted for severity of illness and potential confounders. RESULTS: We included 44 children, median gestational age of 27.9 [IQR: 26.7-29.3] weeks, birth weight 1148 [IQR: 810-1461] grams. Median FEFt after NEC was 20 [IQR: 16-30] days. Median follow-up age was 25.7 [IQR: 24.8-33.5] months. FEFt > 20 days was associated with lower cognitive and lower motor composite scores of the Bayley-III (B: -8.6, 95% CI -16.7 to -0.4, and B: -9.0, 95% CI, -16.7 to -1.4). FEFt was not associated with CBCL scores. Post-NEC complications (n = 11) were not associated with Bayley-III scores nor with CBCL scores. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged FEFt after NEC in preterm-born children surviving NEC is associated with lower cognitive and lower motor composite scores at the age of 2-3 years. These results show the importance of limiting the duration of the nil per mouth regimen if and when possible

Aeroservoelastic design definition of a 20 MW common research wind turbine model

Wind turbine upscaling is motivated by the fact that larger machines can achieve lower levelized cost of energy. However, there are several fundamental issues with the design of such turbines, and there is little public data available for large wind turbine studies. To address this need, we develop a 20 MW common research wind turbine design that is available to the public. Multidisciplinary design optimization is used to define the aeroservoelastic design of the rotor and tower subject to the following constraints: blade‐tower clearance, structural stresses, modal frequencies, tip‐speed and fatigue damage at several sections of the tower and blade. For the blade, the design variables include blade length, twist and chord distribution, structural thicknesses distribution and rotor speed at the rated. The tower design variables are the height, and the diameter distribution in the vertical direction. For the other components, mass models are employed to capture their dynamic interactions. The associated cost of these components is obtained by using cost models. The design objective is to minimize the levelized cost of energy. The results of this research show the feasibility of a 20 MW wind turbine and provide a model with the corresponding data for wind energy researchers to use in the investigation of different aspects of wind turbine design and upscaling. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134256/1/we1970.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134256/2/we1970_am.pd

Predicting intestinal recovery after necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants

Background: Intestinal recovery after NEC is difficult to predict in individuals. We evaluated whether several biomarkers predict intestinal recovery after NEC in preterm infants. Methods: We measured intestinal tissue oxygen saturation (rintSO2) and collected urinary intestinal-fatty acid binding protein (I-FABPu) levels 0–24 h and 24–48 h after NEC onset, and before and after the first re-feed. We assessed intestinal recovery in two ways: time to full enteral feeding (FEFt; below or equal/above group’s median) and development of post-NEC complications (recurrent NEC/post-NEC stricture). We determined whether the rintSO2, its range, and I-FABPu differed between groups. Results: We included 27 preterm infants who survived NEC (Bell’s stage ≥ 2). Median FEFt was 14 [IQR: 12–23] days. Biomarkers only predicted intestinal recovery after the first re-feed. Mean rintSO2 ≥ 53% combined with mean rintSO2range ≥ 50% predicted FEFt < 14 days with OR 16.7 (CI: 2.3–122.2). The rintSO2range was smaller (33% vs. 51%, p < 0.01) and I-FABPu was higher (92.4 vs. 25.5 ng/mL, p = 0.03) in case of post-NEC stricture, but not different in case of recurrent NEC, compared with infants without complications. Conclusion: The rintSO2, its range, and I-FABPu after the first re-feed after NEC predicted intestinal recovery. These biomarkers have potential value in individualizing feeding regimens after NEC

Does Glucose Variability Influence the Relationship Between Mean Plasma Glucose and HbA1cHbA_{1c} Levels in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetic Patients?

Objective: The A1C-Derived Average Glucose (ADAG) study demonstrated a linear relationship between $HbA_{1c}$ and mean plasma glucose (MPG). As glucose variability (GV) may contribute to glycation, we examined the association of several glucose variability indices and the MPG-$HbA_{1c}$ relationship. Research Design and Methods: Analyses included 268 patients with type 1 diabetes and 159 with type 2 diabetes. MPG during 3 months was calculated from 7-point self-monitored plasma glucose and continuous glucose monitoring. We calculated three different measures of GV and used a multiple-step regression model to determine the contribution of the respective GV measures to the MPG-$HbA_{1c}$ relationship. Results: GV, as reflected by SD and continuous overlapping net glycemic action, had a significant effect on the MPG-$HbA_{1c}$ relationship in type 1 diabetic patients so that high GV led to a higher $HbA_{1c}$ level for the same MPG. In type 1 diabetes, the impact of confounding and effect modification of a low versus high SD at an MPG level of 160 mg/dL on the $HbA_{1c}$ level is 7.02 vs. 7.43 and 6.96 vs. 7.41. All GV measures showed the same tendency. Conclusions: In only type 1 diabetic patients, GV shows a significant interaction with MPG in the association with $HbA_{1c}$. This effect is more pronounced at higher $HbA_{1c}$ levels. However, the impact of GV on the $HbA_{1c}$ level in type 1 diabetes is modest, particularly when $HbA_{1c}$ is close to the treatment target of 7%

The effect of enteral bolus feeding on regional intestinal oxygen saturation in preterm infants is age-dependent:a longitudinal observational study

Background The factors that determine the effect of enteral feeding on intestinal perfusion after preterm birth remain largely unknown. We aimed to determine the effect of enteral feeding on intestinal oxygen saturation (r(int)SO(2)) in preterm infants and evaluated whether this effect depended on postnatal age (PNA), postmenstrual age (PMA), and/or feeding volumes. We also evaluated whether changes in postprandial r(int)SO(2) affected cerebral oxygen saturation (r(c)SO(2)). Methods In a longitudinal observational pilot study using near-infrared spectroscopy we measured r(int)SO(2) and r(c)SO(2) continuously for two hours on postnatal Days 2 to 5, 8, 15, 22, 29, and 36. We compared preprandial with postprandial values over time using multi-level analyses. To assess the effect of PNA, PMA, and feeding volumes, we performed Wilcoxon signed-rank tests or logistic regression analyses. To evaluate the effect on r(c)SO(2), we also used logistic regression analyses. Results We included 29 infants: median (range) gestational age 28.1 weeks (25.1-30.7) and birth weight 1025 g (580-1495). On Day 5, r(int)SO(2) values decreased postprandially: mean (SE) 44% (10) versus 35% (7), P = .01. On Day 29, r(int)SO(2) values increased: 44% (11) versus 54% (7), P = .01. Infants with a PMA >= 32 weeks showed a r(int)SO(2) increase after feeding (37% versus 51%, P = .04) whereas infants with a PMA = 32 weeks when greater volumes of enteral feeding are tolerated. We speculate that at young gestational and postmenstrual ages preterm infants are still unable to increase intestinal oxygen saturation after feeding, which might be essential to meet metabolic demands. Trial registration: For this prospective longitudinal pilot study we derived patients from a larger observational cohort study: CALIFORNIA-Trial, Dutch Trial Registry NTR4153