Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models

In recent economic literature it has been emphasized that across both advanced countries and emerging markets, high levels of debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio (90% and above) are associated with notably lower growth outcomes. On the other hand, much lower levels of external debt-to-GDP ratio (60% and below) are associated with adverse outcomes for emerging market growth. These findings have been broadly cited and used in practice. On the other hand, there is an opposite evidence, such that the initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio has no impact on economic growth rate. Taking both viewpoints into account, we propose to employ a time series-based nonlinear mechanism in the threshold autoregression form in order to examine the possible relationship between economic growth rate and its potential determinants included the mentioned debt-to GDP indicator. The originality of the study is that it employs threshold variables instead of exogenous variables and time-series data instead of panel data to reveal the economic instruments that have determined the business cycle in European countries for the last 2 decades -starting from 1995. The purpose of the study is to check the mechanism of growth (measured in terms of GDP growth rate and industrial production growth rate) depending on several important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, rate of inflation, interest rate, and rate of unemployment with the level of growth itself serving as the threshold variable. We propose an efficient methodology for seeking the best specification of threshold autoregression model in terms of both goodness of fit and parsimony of parametrization. The data (quarterly and monthly) applied in the research cover the time period from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2013. Such a long period is interesting because it allows investigation of the mechanism of growth under two different economic policy models. We identify that the exogenous monetary mechanism played an important role in diagnosing the phases of business cycle in most European economies which is in line with liberal economic policy dominating in the observed period. The initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio as its increase within the recession period was of no value for the economic growth pattern

Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models

We propose to apply a time series-based nonlinear mechanism in the threshold autoregression form in order to examine the possible relationship between economic growth rate and its potential determinants included debt-to-GDP indicator. Our approach employs threshold variables instead of exogenous variables and time series data instead of panel data to reveal the economic instruments that have determined the business cycle in European countries for the last 2 decades—starting from 1995. The purpose of the study is to reveal the mechanism of growth (measured in terms of GDP growth rate and industrial production growth rate) given different macroeconomic indicators, such as public debt, rate of inflation, interest rate, and rate of unemployment with the level of growth itself serving as the threshold variables. We identify that the monetary mechanism played an important role in diagnosing the phases of business cycle in most European economies which is in line with liberal economic policy dominating in the observed period. The initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio as its increase within the recession period was of no value for the economic growth pattern

Does economic growth really depend on the magnitude of debt? A threshold model approach

In recent economic literature it has been emphasized that across both advanced countries and emerging markets, high levels of debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio (90% and above) are associated with notably lower growth outcomes. On the other hand, much lower levels of external debt-to-GDP ratio (60% and below) are associated with adverse outcomes for emerging market growth. These findings have been broadly cited and used in practice. On the other hand, there is an opposite evidence, such that the initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio has no impact on economic growth rate. Taking both viewpoints into account, we propose to employ a time series-based nonlinear mechanism in the threshold autoregression form in order to examine the possible relationship between economic growth rate and its potential determinants included the mentioned debt-to GDP indicator. The originality of the study is that it employs threshold variables instead of exogenous variables and time-series data instead of panel data to reveal the economic instruments that have determined the business cycle in European countries for the last 2 decades -starting from 1995. The purpose of the study is to check the mechanism of growth (measured in terms of GDP growth rate and industrial production growth rate) depending on several important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, rate of inflation, interest rate, and rate of unemployment with the level of growth itself serving as the threshold variable. We propose an efficient methodology for seeking the best specification of threshold autoregression model in terms of both goodness of fit and parsimony of parametrization. The data (quarterly and monthly) applied in the research cover the time period from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2013. Such a long period is interesting because it allows investigation of the mechanism of growth under two different economic policy models. We identify that the exogenous monetary mechanism played an important role in diagnosing the phases of business cycle in most European economies which is in line with liberal economic policy dominating in the observed period. The initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio as its increase within the recession period was of no value for the economic growth pattern

Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models

We propose to apply a time series-based nonlinear mechanism in the threshold autoregression form in order to examine the possible relationship between economic growth rate and its potential determinants included debt-to-GDP indicator. Our approach employs threshold variables instead of exogenous variables and time series data instead of panel data to reveal the economic instruments that have determined the business cycle in European countries for the last 2 decades—starting from 1995. The purpose of the study is to reveal the mechanism of growth (measured in terms of GDP growth rate and industrial production growth rate) given different macroeconomic indicators, such as public debt, rate of inflation, interest rate, and rate of unemployment with the level of growth itself serving as the threshold variables. We identify that the monetary mechanism played an important role in diagnosing the phases of business cycle in most European economies which is in line with liberal economic policy dominating in the observed period. The initial level of debt-to-GDP ratio as its increase within the recession period was of no value for the economic growth pattern

Narrow money demand in Indonesia and in other transitional economies – model selection and forecasting

Purpose: This paper aims to incorporate model uncertainty in variable selection and forecasting in the monetarist money demand model and check whether the emerging economies such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, India, Republic of South Africa, and Indonesia follow this model in the long-run. The case of the United Kingdom serves as a benchmark for the study. Design/Methodology/Approach: In dynamic econometric modeling, the number of potential explanatory variables increases rapidly, and model uncertainty grows very fast. Consequently, empirical modeling of money demand needs a comprehensive strategy for model selection and forecasting. We use Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) as an appropriate model reduction strategy. The monetary model serves as the theoretical basis for empirical equilibrium error-correction models (EqCM) and employing the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach for variable and model selection and forecasting. Findings: Four theoretical and competitive model specifications are proposed and empirically tested. We found that monetary systems in Indonesia and other analyzed economies are both stable and theory consistent. The forecasts generated for Indonesia are accurate. The robustness of the model selection based on the BACE procedure was strongly confirmed. Practical Implications: The proposed procedure is valid for practical application, particularly in dynamic model selection and forecasting. Originality/Value: The novelty of this research lies in employing the BACE approach to model the demand for money with the equilibrium error correction (EqCM) mechanism.peer-reviewe

Nuclear fate of yeast snoRNA is determined by co-transcriptional Rnt1 cleavage

Small nucleolar RNA (snoRNA) are conserved and essential non-coding RNA that are transcribed by RNA Polymerase II (Pol II). Two snoRNA classes, formerly distinguished by their structure and ribonucleoprotein composition, act as guide RNA to target RNA such as ribosomal RNA, and thereby introduce specific modifications. We have studied the 5'end processing of individually transcribed snoRNA in S. cerevisiae to define their role in snoRNA biogenesis and functionality. Here we show that pre-snoRNA processing by the endonuclease Rnt1 occurs co-transcriptionally with removal of the m7G cap facilitating the formation of box C/D snoRNA. Failure of this process causes aberrant 3'end processing and mislocalization of snoRNA to the cytoplasm. Consequently, Rnt1-dependent 5'end processing of box C/D snoRNA is critical for snoRNA-dependent methylation of ribosomal RNA. Our results reveal that the 5'end processing of box C/D snoRNA defines their distinct pathway of maturation

Polyadenylation Linked to Transcription Termination Directs the Processing of snoRNA Precursors in Yeast

Transcription termination by RNA polymerase II is coupled to transcript 3′ end formation. A large cleavage and polyadenylation complex containing the major poly(A) polymerase Pap1 produces mRNA 3′ ends, whereas those of nonpolyadenylated snoRNAs in yeast are formed either by endonucleolytic cleavage or by termination, followed by trimming by the nuclear exosome. We show that synthesis of independently transcribed snoRNAs involves default polyadenylation of two classes of precursors derived from termination at a main Nrd1/Nab3-dependent site or a “fail-safe” mRNA-like signal. Poly(A) tails are added by Pap1 to both forms, whereas the alternative poly(A) polymerase Tfr4 adenylates major precursors and processing intermediates to facilitate further polyadenylation by Pap1 and maturation by the exosome/Rrp6. A more important role of Trf4/TRAMP, however, is to enhance Nrd1 association with snoRNA genes. We propose a model in which polyadenylation of pre-snoRNAs is a key event linking their transcription termination, 3′ end processing, and degradation