Exchange Rate Stabilization and IMF High Interest Rate Policy: A Critical Reconsideration Using a Dynamic Model

This paper examines whether the IMF high interest rate policy was suitable for crisis-ridden East Asian economies. Using an "overshoot" model similar to that of Dornbusch's (1976), it shows that this sort of policy might cause an unnecessary deflationary adjusting process and have no effect on containing the real depreciation of exchange rates in the long run. The study also demonstrates that Thai economic data coincides quite well with the model presented here. Finally, it points out that the high interest policy itself might provoke high risk-premium, the existence of which, in turn, justifies the policy. This means that the policy has a self-fulfilling property. In conclusion, a "one-size-fits-all" adaptation of high interest rate policy in a currency crisis is very dangerous in general, and was inappropriate for East Asia. The desirable policy would have been to let currencies depreciate and keep interest rates stable.Developing countries, Thailand, IMF, Monetary policy, Foreign exchange, Exchange control, East Asia

Crisis in Japan and the Way Out: A Counterargument to Pessimistic Views

This paper focuses on a review of the present state of, and outlook for the Japanese economy. The paper is composed of three parts. The first describes the interrelation between the crisis-ridden East Asian economies and Japan. I argue that Japan did not cause the Asian currency crisis. The second part describes the current state of the Japanese economy after the bubble burst. I also discuss the medium- and long-term challenges that face the Japanese economy. The third part concentrates on the issue of the "liquidity trap" Japan is experiencing. I argue that the yen's exchange rate is more likely to appreciate than depreciate by pumping liquidity into the economy while interest rates cannot be lowered any further, and therefore a "helicopter money" policy is the only way to induce a positive inflation rate and escape from the liquidity trap.Economic Crisis, Japan, East Asia

Financial Cooperation in East Asia

This paper addresses the rationale for financial cooperation in East Asia. It begins by giving a brief review of developments after the Asian currency crisis, and argues that enhancing regional financial cooperation both quantitatively and qualitatively will require: (1) upgrading surveillance capabilities in the region, and (2) creating a clear division of labor between regional institutions and the IMF. It also mentions the issue of membership and the background forces that have led to the duplication of similar forums in East Asia. Although the concern over crisis management is the central issue in East Asian financial cooperation, other issues such as exchange rate policy coordination and fostering regional capital markets are discussed as well

Crisis in Japan and the Way Out: A Counterargument to Pessimistic Views

This paper focuses on a review of the present state of, and outlook for the Japanese economy. The paper is composed of three parts. The first describes the interrelation between the crisis-ridden East Asian economies and Japan. I argue that Japan did not cause the Asian currency crisis. The second part describes the current state of the Japanese economy after the bubble burst. I also discuss the medium- and long-term challenges that face the Japanese economy. The third part concentrates on the issue of the "liquidity trap" Japan is experiencing. I argue that the yen\u27s exchange rate is more likely to appreciate than depreciate by pumping liquidity into the economy while interest rates cannot be lowered any further, and therefore a "helicopter money" policy is the only way to induce a positive inflation rate and escape from the liquidity trap