Number of deployed new treatments classified by coverage type and proportion of treatment allocation.

<p>Number of deployed new treatments classified by coverage type and proportion of treatment allocation.</p

Core model equations^* derived from data of population dynamics, disease transmission, disease progression, and treatment effects.

<p>Core model equations^{<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0163095#t002fn001" target="_blank">*</a>} derived from data of population dynamics, disease transmission, disease progression, and treatment effects.</p

Sensitivity analysis.

<p>Estimated CHC prevalence with different case distributions by fibrosis stage in conservative treatment coverage scenario (A), estimated prevalence of CHC with different case distributions by fibrosis stage in extensive treatment coverage scenario (B), estimated cumulative overall CHC-related death with different levels of treatment coverage (C), and estimated annual incidence of HCC-associated HCV with different levels of treatment coverage (D).</p

Estimated prevalence of CHC patients.

<p>Estimated prevalence of patients with CHC based on previous data and transmission and progression of CHC using current standard treatments in Thailand. The model was created by fitting reported 1994–2014 CHC prevalence data. The reported prevalence of chronic HCV infection in the general population was 1.4%–4.2% in 1994–2005, 2.15% in 2004, 2.2% in 2005–2008, and 0.97% in 2014. Circles represent the observed data, and the black line represents prediction of the model. The right Y-axis represents the estimated population of Thailand derived by the model.</p

Estimated cumulative death related to HCV.

<p>Estimated cumulative total death related to HCV (A) and cumulative death from liver decompensation and HCC related to HCV (B) based on current and extensive treatment coverage over the next 20 years.</p

Estimated prevalence of CHC in Thailand over the next 20 years.

<p>Estimated prevalence of CHC in Thailand over the next 20 years using current standard treatments and novel antiviral treatments in the conservative coverage scenario and novel antiviral treatments in the extensive coverage scenario.</p

Study design of the transmission and disease progression model.

<p>The fibrosis stage of progression develops gradually, and cirrhosis and decompensation develop over time. The risk of developing HCC starts after cirrhosis. Survival rates depend on the severity of disease at each stage. The current standard treatment in Thailand was compared with new direct-acting antivirals with different treatment coverage and allocations. *HCV-related mortality.</p

Estimated HCV-associated burden over the next 20 years classified by treatment regimen, treatment coverage, and allocation strategy.

<p>Estimated HCV-associated burden over the next 20 years classified by treatment regimen, treatment coverage, and allocation strategy.</p

Distribution of seroprevalence for Lop Buri and Narathiwat by age group.

<p>(A) anti-HEV IgG antibody and (B) anti-HAV IgG antibody prevalence in different age groups.</p

Comparison of socio-economic data between Lop Buri and Narathiwat.

<p>^aNational Statistical Office;</p><p>^bInformation Technology and Vocational Manpower Center;</p><p>^cLop Buri Governor’s Office;</p><p>^dLop Buri Provincial Public Health Office;</p><p>^eLopburi Provincial Livestock Office;</p><p>^fNarathiwat National Statistical Office;</p><p>^gNarathiwat Provincial Public Health Office;</p><p>^hNarathiwat Provincial Livestock Office.</p><p>Comparison of socio-economic data between Lop Buri and Narathiwat.</p