The Accession of Romania to the European Union - Scenario Analysis for Key Agricultural Crop Markets Using AGMEMOD Model

Aiming the EU accession put new and significant challenges to the candiadte countries' policies, and the problem of the inclusion of their agricultural sectors was among the most difficult ones. AGMEMOD is an econometric model of the EU-25 + 2 candidate countries (Romania and Bulgaria) agricultural sector. This poster presents the baseline and the scenario results for several key agricultural products of Romania's model developed as part of AGMEMOD model. The model is an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium comodity model. The target of this approach is to evaluate the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms upon the country's agricultural sector in perspective of its accession to the EU. The selected commodities are: soft wheat, barley, maize and sunflower. The baseline scenario depicts the results of the agricultural sector in Romania if the country would not join the EU and would continue with its own agricultural policy as applied until now. The main conclusion coming from the analysis of the baseline scenario is that rather few significant changes in the Romanian agricultural production would have occurred, such as mod est positive evolution of production and consumption for wheat and sunflower, and some stagnation in barley and maize. The Accession scenario of the model indicates a significant positive effect upon the wheat, maize and sunflower production. Together with a moderate increase in the consumption, overall some surpluses for export would be available, modest for maize, but significant for sunflower.Romania, econometric model, EU accession, cereals, sunflower, Crop Production/Industries, Q13, Q18,

Use of maximum entropy in estimating production risks in crop farms

The entropic value of the production risk is closely linked to the farmer’s aversion to this type of risk. Since risk aversion is difficult to quantify, it is preferable to use the MaxEnt model as a quantitative benchmark in assessing and covering the production risk through adequate financial resources. The classification of the Selyaninov index value as measure of the production risk based on the MaxEnt model utilization makes it possible to evaluate the production risk and the transfer decision to an adequate market implicitly. The authors’ previous research investigated the risk coverage through derivative financial instruments that diminish the farmer’s exposure to the production risk; the present paper adds to previous research by investigating an equally important issue: sizing the risk that is the object of coverage. Through the utilization of the stochastic methods in estimating the risk measure, a less rigid method is obtained that can be adapted and applied to the risk management processes in agriculture

QUALITATIVE RISK COVERAGE IN AGRICULTURE THROUGH DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS BASED ON SELYANINOV INDICES

The financial product designed by the authors belongs to the class of derivative financial instruments, having “weather conditions” as basic variable; the settlement is oriented to options on OTC markets, which are able to adapt to the farmers’ risk exposure level. Unfortunately, they cause certain problems at position liquidation, and, moreover, due to lack of stock prices, they require proper evaluation models. The transformation of the weather risk into financial risk and its trading on financial markets relies on the willingness for risk taking of those groups of farmers which are using this particular financial instrument. One needs to emphasize that the proposed product is covering the risk for the production segment only of a specific crop that cannot be covered by the regular agricultural insurance, and it is based upon the Selyaninov index. The calculation formulae for a put type option will be presented: pay-off, strike, tick,and the level of the insurance premium for cereals. The reference weather stations will be: Tulcea, Brăila, Buzău, Galaţi, Focşani and Medgidia

The Architecture of Informatics Systems for Farm Management – a Cloud Computing and Big Data Approach

The present paper analyses the current trends in the IT&C field, according to which IT is delivered to the user as personalized, updated and secured service packages, at reasonable costs. This new technology class is symbolically named Cloud Computing. The agrifood sector is placed on top positions when the potential of applying the technology package defining cloud computing is concerned, in the operational, management and marketing area. All kinds of economic operators along the agrifood chain (farmers, wholesalers, processors, retailers) might thus become consumers of IT services in real time and at low costs. Such services are allowing the visualization of the whole production process in real time, while the managers are provided with essential information for decision making, such as the analysis of the demand-supply ratio, or quality control in the contracts with the business partners along the agrifood chain

The Accession of Romania to the European Union - Scenario Analysis for Key Agricultural Crop Markets Using AGMEMOD Model

Aiming the EU accession put new and significant challenges to the candiadte countries' policies, and the problem of the inclusion of their agricultural sectors was among the most difficult ones. AGMEMOD is an econometric model of the EU-25 + 2 candidate countries (Romania and Bulgaria) agricultural sector. This poster presents the baseline and the scenario results for several key agricultural products of Romania's model developed as part of AGMEMOD model. The model is an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium comodity model. The target of this approach is to evaluate the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy reforms upon the country's agricultural sector in perspective of its accession to the EU. The selected commodities are: soft wheat, barley, maize and sunflower. The baseline scenario depicts the results of the agricultural sector in Romania if the country would not join the EU and would continue with its own agricultural policy as applied until now. The main conclusion coming from the analysis of the baseline scenario is that rather few significant changes in the Romanian agricultural production would have occurred, such as mod est positive evolution of production and consumption for wheat and sunflower, and some stagnation in barley and maize. The Accession scenario of the model indicates a significant positive effect upon the wheat, maize and sunflower production. Together with a moderate increase in the consumption, overall some surpluses for export would be available, modest for maize, but significant for sunflower

Impact analysis of the CAP reform on main agricultural commodities. Report III AGMEMOD – Model Description

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities

Impact analysis of the CAP reform on main agricultural commodities. Report I AGMEMOD – Summary report

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"