Trade in Services: Does Gravity Hold? A Gravity Model Approach to Estimating Barriers to Services Trade

This paper assesses the determinants of trade in services using a gravity model, with particular attention given to the role of barriers to services trade. Initially, the application of the gravity equation to services trade is examined. A variety of econometric estimators are tested and the Hausman-Taylor model is found to be the best estimator. The gravity model fits services trade flows in a similar manner to trade in goods. Wealth of countries and a common language are the most important determinants of services trade, distance is generally found to be insignificant. A variable measuring barriers to services trade is introduced into the gravity equation. Although the variable is only found to be weakly significant, a quantified set of tariff equivalents of those barriers is estimated.

The Economic Consequences of the Doha Round for Ireland

This paper provides a quantitative study of the economic effects of a stylised simulation of trade liberalisation for Ireland using the GTAP model. The experiment incorporates the liberalisation of agricultural, manufacturing and services trade as well as measures to improve trade facilitation. The simulation is implemented against a baseline projection of the Irish and world economy over the next decade. Overall, Ireland’s welfare will increase as a result of further trade liberalisation, with particularly strong gains from services liberalisation. The industrial liberalisation scenario also generates positive gains to Ireland, while agricultural liberalisation has a slightly negative effect on the overall economy.

The Economic Consequences of the Doha Round for Ireland

This paper provides a quantitative study of the economic effects of a stylised simulation of trade liberalisation for Ireland using the GTAP model. The experiment incorporates the liberalisation of agricultural, manufacturing and services trade as well as measures to improve trade facilitation. The simulation is implemented against a baseline projection of the Irish and world economy over the next decade. Overall, Ireland's welfare will increase as a result of further trade liberalisation, with particularly strong gains from services liberalisation. The industrial liberalisation scenario also generates positive gains to Ireland, while agricultural liberalisation has a slightly negative effect on the overall economy.Note: Ireland, trade liberalisation, WTO Doha Round

The Doha Development Agenda: Mixed Prospects for Developing Countries

This paper uses the GTAP computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of a Doha Development Agenda agreement on agricultural trade liberalisation. In particular, we examine the consequences for developing countries. The simulation incorporates further liberalisation in the areas of market access, export competition and domestic support. Most developing regions can expect strong positive results from this liberalisation, however some suffer a decrease in welfare. The magnitude of the welfare effect for these countries depends on measures to be taken by developing countries themselves, and whether they will materialise must be uncertain. The results highlight the importance of the impact of further liberalisation of the erosion of preferential trading arrangements enjoyed by developing regions.Agricultural trade liberalisation, GTAP, developing countries

Plugging the gap – can planned infrastructure address resistance to adoption of electric vehicles?

Non peer reviewe

Treeless vegetation of the Australian Alps

Based on 1222 floristic quadrat samples, 56 plant communities were identified in treeless vegetation in the Australian Alps of south-eastern Australia. (c. 35º 30´–38ºS, 146°–149°E). The study encompassed vegetation from above the upper limit of trees on mountain tops (i.e. the truly alpine environment) and below the inverted treeline in subalpine valleys. Generally, grasslands develop on deep humus soils, heathlands occur on shallower or rocky soils, and wetland communities are found in places of permanent or intermittent wetness. Duration of snow cover, lithology, altitude and exposure are also important determinants of the spatial arrangement of communities. Broadly, communities within a geographic region are more closely related to each other than to communities of similar structure or dominants from other geographic areas. Many communities are either very localised or are widespread with a small area of occupancy. Fourteen communities are probably eligible for listing as threatened, either alone or as aggregates with associated communities. A total of 710 native taxa from 82 families has been recorded. There is a high level of endemism – 30% of taxa are ± restricted to treeless vegetation in the Australia Alps and a further 14% are ± restricted to treeless vegetation but occur in mountain areas outside the Australian mainland (e.g. Tasmania and New Zealand). Thirteen taxa are listed in the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 as threatened and a further 18 taxa are identified that may be eligible for listing as threatened nationally. 131 non-native taxa have been recorded in natural vegetation. Treeless vegetation has been intensively utilised since European settlement, initially as summer pastures for cattle and sheep but more recently as water catchments for electricity production and as tourist attractions both in winter and summer. Many communities are slowly recovering from past pressures and from the fires of 2003, which burnt most of the area for the first time since 1939. The treeless vegetation of the Australian Alps faces an uncertain future because of increased pressure from tourism and the unknown impacts of global warming

Implications of Domestic Support Disciplines for Further Agricultural Trade Liberalization

This paper employs the GTAP computable general equilibrium model and dataset to analyse the implications of domestic support reductions in the context of agricultural trade liberalisation. Three specific issues are addressed: overhang in domestic support, the accurate distinction of the boxes in the GTAP dataset and the treatment of market price support in the amber box. An extensive domestic support database is used to calculate the change in applied domestic support rates from a specified cut in bound rates, and to identify the impact on the different domestic support boxes and the required reductions in each support category. The GTAP model is extended to incorporate an explicit representation of the market price support element of the AMS. The results from these extensions of the standard database and model support the view that the impact of an agreement to reduce domestic support will be limited and lower than conventionally estimated. Results of simulations combining domestic support cuts with market access and export competition disciplines show that the effect of import tariff reductions dominate the gains from domestic support cuts once full account is taken of the issues addressed in this paper.WTO agricultural negotiations, domestic support, agricultural protection, Aggregate Measure of Support

Ferroelectric Materials for Solar Energy Conversion: Photoferroics Revisited

The application of ferroelectric materials (i.e. solids that exhibit spontaneous electric polarisation) in solar cells has a long and controversial history. This includes the first observations of the anomalous photovoltaic effect (APE) and the bulk photovoltaic effect (BPE). The recent successful application of inorganic and hybrid perovskite structured materials (e.g. BiFeO3, CsSnI3, CH3NH3PbI3) in solar cells emphasises that polar semiconductors can be used in conventional photovoltaic architectures. We review developments in this field, with a particular emphasis on the materials known to display the APE/BPE (e.g. ZnS, CdTe, SbSI), and the theoretical explanation. Critical analysis is complemented with first-principles calculation of the underlying electronic structure. In addition to discussing the implications of a ferroelectric absorber layer, and the solid state theory of polarisation (Berry phase analysis), design principles and opportunities for high-efficiency ferroelectric photovoltaics are presented

Electronic chemical potentials of porous metal-organic frameworks

The binding energy of an electron in a material is a fundamental characteristic, which determines a wealth of important chemical and physical properties. For metal-organic frameworks this quantity is hitherto unknown. We present a general approach for determining the vacuum level of porous metal-organic frameworks and apply it to obtain the first ionisation energy for six prototype materials including zeolitic, covalent and ionic frameworks. This approach for valence band alignment can explain observations relating to the electrochemical, optical and electrical properties of porous frameworks

Is incident rheumatoid arthritis interstitial lung disease associated with methotrexate treatment? Results from a multivariate analysis in the ERAS and ERAN inception cohorts

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.Objectives To assess predictive factors for rheumatoid arthritis interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) in two early RA inception cohorts with a focus on methotrexate (MTX) exposure. Design Multicenter prospective early RA inception cohort studies; the early RA study (ERAS) and the early RA network (ERAN) Setting Secondary care, ERAS 9 centers, ERAN 23 centers in England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland Participants Patients with new diagnosis of RA, n=2701.Standardised data including demographics, drug therapies and clinical outcomes including the presence of RA-ILD were collected at baseline, within 3- 6 months, at 12 months and annually thereafter. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary outcome was the association of MTX exposure on RA-ILD diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were the association of demographic, comorbid and RA specific factors on RA-ILD diagnosis and the association of MTX exposure on time to RA-ILD diagnosis. Results Of 92 eligible ILD cases, 39 occurred in 1578 (2.5%) MTX exposed and 53 in 1114 (4.8%) non-MTX exposed cases. The primary analysis of RA-ILD cases only developing after any csDMARD treatment (n=67) showed MTX exposure not to be associated with incident RA-ILD (O.R. 0.85 CI 0.49, 1.49 p=0.578) and a non-significant trend for delayed ILD diagnosis (O.R. 0.54 CI 0.28, 1.06 p=0.072). In an extended analysis including RA-ILD cases present at RA diagnosis (n=92), MTX exposure was associated with a significantly reduced risk of incident RA-ILD (O.R. 0.48, CI 0.3, 0.79 p=0.004) and longer time to ILD diagnosis (O.R. 0.41, CI 0.23, 0.75 p=0.004). Other independent baseline associations with incident RA-ILD were higher age of RA onset, ever smoking, male gender, rheumatoid nodules and longer time from first RA symptom to first out-patient visit. Conclusions MTX treatment was not associated with an increased risk of RA-ILD diagnosis. On the contrary evidence suggested that MTX may delay the onset of ILD.Peer reviewe