226 research outputs found

    A Theory of Interests in the Context of Hybrid Warfare: It\u27s Complex

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    We will begin with a discussion about how the hybrid warfare context is different from other conflict contexts. We will describe some complexity aspects that make hybrid warfare challenging to negotiators. We will then discuss whether classical negotiation theory prescriptions apply to a hybrid warfare context, especially regarding interests. We will argue that these prescriptions related to classical negotiations are unlikely to work in this context. We will focus our analysis on a subset of hybrid warfare attacks, consisting of short-term, time-sensitive, high-risk crises, where negotiations are possible and necessary, such as ransom demands, rather than on hybrid warfare situations which state actors, diplomats, or security professionals are called to manage.5 We will explore how negotiators can better deal with such negotiable crises. We note that such events are likely part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy, and therefore their negotiated conclusion is not the same as the end of hybrid warfare hostilities. Nevertheless, the costs and risks to human life make engagement necessary. We will conclude with suggestions about how negotiators might handle such hybrid warfare crisis situations and that most classical interest-based advice does not help. We hope that our thoughts on how individual negotiators can approach hybrid warfare will contribute to a growing understanding of how to defend our interests in this complex environment

    The spread of primary schooling in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for fertility change

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    Caldwell has hypothesized that the onset of the fertility transition would be linked with the achievement of “mass formal schooling.” In sub-Saharan Africa, a region where some countries have begun the fertility transition but many have not, the extent of progress toward mass schooling has not yet been assessed. This paper fills a gap in the literature using newly available Demographic and Health Survey data to assess schooling patterns and trends for 17 sub-Saharan African countries. As background to that assessment, the paper includes a literature review, an overview of the recent history of African education, and an evaluation of alternative sources of data on education. These data are linked to recent markers of fertility change in order to assess the potential importance of mass schooling for the fertility transition in Africa. In most of Africa, the promise embodied in early post-independence education progress whereby the next generation of Africans would be universally exposed to basic levels of formal schooling has yet to be realized. Countries such as Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are the exceptions rather than the rule, and most of these had achieved some form of mass schooling by the early 1980s. Since 1980, growth rates in educational participation and attainment have slowed or halted; in some countries, they have begun to decline. Most of these same countries were in the forefront of the fertility transition in Africa; in Ghana and Tanzania, fertility declines have begun more recently. A systematic empirical analysis of cross-country patterns across all 17 countries supports Caldwell’s hypothesis. Within this group, however, we find a few countries beginning to show signs of fertility transition despite limited progress in mass schooling. Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal are notable examples of this new development. In countries where population growth rates remain high and a growing proportion of the population is of school age, the achievement of mass schooling will be increasingly difficult in the future if high fertility persists. Therefore, if fertility declines are to continue, or in some cases begin, they will have to do so in the absence of mass schooling. Instead, fertility may respond to other vehicles of communication, such as the mass media, which will be increasingly pervasive, providing alternative mechanisms for the spread of cultural change

    Process Evaluation of a Sport-Based Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Demand-Creation Intervention in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

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    INTRODUCTION: Grassroot Soccer (GRS) developed 2 brief and scalable voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) promotion interventions for males in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, consisting of a 60-minute interactive, soccer-themed educational session with follow-up behavioral and logistical reinforcement. Both interventions were led by circumcised male community leaders ("coaches") ages 18-30. "Make The Cut" (MTC) targeted adult males on soccer teams and "Make The Cut+" targeted boys in secondary schools. We conducted a process evaluation of MTC and Make The Cut+ to investigate perceptions of program impact, intervention components, and program delivery; participants' understandings of intervention content; and factors related to uptake. METHODS: We conducted 17 interviews and 2 focus group discussions with coaches and 29 interviews with circumcised (n = 13) and uncircumcised participants (n = 16). RESULTS: Findings demonstrate high program acceptability, highlighting the coach-participant relationship as a key factor associated with uptake. Specifically, participants valued the coaches' openness to discuss their personal experiences with VMMC and the accompaniment by their coaches to the VMMC clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Should the coach quality remain consistent at scale, MTC offers an effective approach toward generating VMMC demand among males

    A Sport-Based Intervention to Increase Uptake of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Among Adolescent Male Students: Results From the MCUTS 2 Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

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    BACKGROUND: Mathematical models suggest that 570,000 HIV infections could be averted between 2011 and 2025 in Zimbabwe if the country reaches 80% voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) coverage among 15- to 49-year-old male subjects. Yet national coverage remains well below this target, and there is a need to evaluate interventions to increase the uptake. METHODS: A cluster-randomized trial was conducted to assess the effectiveness of Make-The-Cut-Plus (MTC+), a single, 60-minute, sport-based intervention to increase VMMC uptake targeting secondary school boys (14-20 years). Twenty-six schools in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, were randomized to either receive MTC+ at the start (intervention) or end (control) of a 4-month period (March to June 2014). VMMC uptake over these 4 months was measured via probabilistic matching of participants in the trial database (n = 1226 male participants; age, 14-20 years; median age, 16.2 years) and the registers in Bulawayo's 2 free VMMC clinics (n = 5713), using 8 identifying variables. RESULTS: There was strong evidence that the MTC+ intervention increased the odds of VMMC uptake by approximately 2.5 fold (odds ratio = 2.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 5.30). Restricting to participants who did not report being already circumcised at baseline, MTC+ increased VMMC uptake by 7.6% (12.2% vs 4.6%, odds ratio = 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 5.86). Sensitivity analyses related to the probabilistic matching did not change these findings substantively. The number of participants who would need to be exposed to the demand creation intervention to yield one additional VMMC client was 22.7 (or 13.2 reporting not already being circumcised). This translated to approximately US dollar 49 per additional VMMC client. CONCLUSIONS: The MTC+ intervention was an effective and cost-effective strategy for increasing VMMC uptake among school-going adolescent male subjects in Bulawayo

    CMB polarimetry with BICEP: instrument characterization, calibration, and performance

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    BICEP is a ground-based millimeter-wave bolometric array designed to target the primordial gravity wave signature on the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at degree angular scales. Currently in its third year of operation at the South Pole, BICEP is measuring the CMB polarization with unprecedented sensitivity at 100 and 150 GHz in the cleanest available 2% of the sky, as well as deriving independent constraints on the diffuse polarized foregrounds with select observations on and off the Galactic plane. Instrument calibrations are discussed in the context of rigorous control of systematic errors, and the performance during the first two years of the experiment is reviewed.Comment: 12 pages, 15 figures, updated version of a paper accepted for Millimeter and Submillimeter Detectors and Instrumentation for Astronomy IV, Proceedings of SPIE, 7020, 200

    Modeling the Residential Infiltration of Outdoor PM2.5 in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

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    Background: Epidemiologic studies of fine particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5)] typically use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. Failure to account for variation in residential infiltration efficiencies (Finf) will affect epidemiologic study results

    Erratum: Factors influencing time-location patterns and their impact on estimates of exposure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

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    We assessed time-location patterns and the role of individual- and residential-level characteristics on these patterns within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) cohort and also investigated the impact of individual-level time-location patterns on individual-level estimates of exposure to outdoor air pollution. Reported time-location patterns varied significantly by demographic factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, education, and employment status. On average Chinese participants reported spending significantly more time indoors and less time outdoors and in transit than white, black, or Hispanic participants. Using a tiered linear regression approach, we predicted time indoors at home and total time indoors. Our model, developed using forward selection procedures, explained 43 percent of the variability in time spent indoors at home, and incorporated demographic, health, lifestyle, and built environment factors. Time-weighted air pollution predictions calculated using recommended time indoors from USEPA(1) overestimated exposures as compared to predictions made with MESA Air participant-specific information. These data fill an important gap in the literature by describing the impact of individual and residential characteristics on time-location patterns and by demonstrating the impact of population-specific data on exposure estimates

    Association of Childhood Obesity With Atopic and Nonatopic Asthma: Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2006

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    Obesity and asthma prevalence have both risen among children over the last several decades, and research efforts increasingly suggest that obesity is associated with asthma. Some, but not all, studies have shown that the effect of obesity on asthma is stronger among non-atopic individuals than among those with atopy. Systemic inflammation may be a factor in this relationship

    Adaptive Variation in Beach Mice Produced by Two Interacting Pigmentation Genes

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    Little is known about the genetic basis of ecologically important morphological variation such as the diverse color patterns of mammals. Here we identify genetic changes contributing to an adaptive difference in color pattern between two subspecies of oldfield mice (Peromyscus polionotus). One mainland subspecies has a cryptic dark brown dorsal coat, while a younger beach-dwelling subspecies has a lighter coat produced by natural selection for camouflage on pale coastal sand dunes. Using genome-wide linkage mapping, we identified three chromosomal regions (two of major and one of minor effect) associated with differences in pigmentation traits. Two candidate genes, the melanocortin-1 receptor (Mc1r) and its antagonist, the Agouti signaling protein (Agouti), map to independent regions that together are responsible for most of the difference in pigmentation between subspecies. A derived mutation in the coding region of Mc1r, rather than change in its expression level, contributes to light pigmentation. Conversely, beach mice have a derived increase in Agouti mRNA expression but no changes in protein sequence. These two genes also interact epistatically: the phenotypic effects of Mc1r are visible only in genetic backgrounds containing the derived Agouti allele. These results demonstrate that cryptic coloration can be based largely on a few interacting genes of major effect
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