Riparian woodlands in crisis? Disturbance ecology on the Condamine floodplain

The Condamine River, at the headwaters of the Murray-Darling basin, drains one of the most intensively-farmed landscapes in eastern Australia. Riparian woodland remnants on the floodplain sections of the upper Condamine are widely recognised as being in generally poor condition, with evidence of significant dieback and limited recruitment of canopy species, as well as widespread invasion by the introduced perennial herb Phyla canescens (lippia). These communities, in keeping with most remnant ecosystems of agricultural landscapes, are poorly understood in terms of their diversity, function and dynamics (resilience) under altered disturbance regimes. This research investigates the condition (health and function) of Eucalyptus tereticornis/camaldulensis riparian woodland communities of the Condamine floodplain in relation to selected natural and anthropogenic disturbance factors (e.g. climate variability, changes in land- and wateruse, weed invasion) operating at a range of spatial and temporal scales. The study takes a multi-dimensional approach aimed at developing an integrated understanding of key drivers and mechanisms of ecosystem change in these environments. It also investigates the potential of simple conceptual tools (e.g. State-and-Transition and Bayesian Belief Network approaches) to model system dynamics and predict outcomes of future climate and land and water management scenarios, including environmental flow restoration

Chronic groundwater decline: a multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world’s major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long‐term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen’s slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989–2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989–2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource

Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought on coffee production in Vietnam

Poster presented at the 3rd Asia Pacific Asia Pacific System Dynamics Conference at the University of Queensland (UQ) in Brisbane, Australia, in February 2020

Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought: A case study in coffee production systems in Viet Nam

Drought is a major cause of crop failure and livelihood insecurity, affecting millions of people across the world. A changing climate, increasing population and economic growth are exacerbating water shortages, further interrupting agricultural production. Assessing and minimizing the impacts of drought require a thorough understanding of the interrelationships and interactions between the climate system, ecosystems and human systems. In this paper, we apply causal loop modelling grounded in systems thinking theory to examine the interdependencies and feedback processes among factors associated with drought that impact crop production using a case study of Robusta coffee production systems in Viet Nam – the world’s second-largest coffee producing country. Our model, underpinned by qualitative data from consultation with a range of stakeholders, indicates that water depletion affecting coffee cultivation is not solely attributed to rainfall insufficiency but an outcome of complex interactions between climate and socio-economic systems. Our analysis highlights that uncontrollable coffee expansion, largely at the expense of forested areas, is partly the unintended consequence of policy decisions, including those encouraging migration and perennial crop development. Growing water demand in the region, including the demand for irrigation water driven by the ever-increasing area under coffee cultivation, as well as inefficient irrigation practices are placing significant pressure on water resources. A changing climate may exacerbate the problem, further impacting coffee cultivation, unless adaptation practices occur. A number of potential interventions are suggested, including explicit zoning of coffee-growing areas; awareness raising for wide adoption of optimal irrigation practices; converting Robusta coffee monocultures to diversified systems; and strictly protecting existing forests coupled with afforestation and reforestation. These interventions should be simultaneously implemented in order to adequately address drought and water scarcity for coffee production and build resilience to climate and market risks

Managing pest species under climate change: risks and opportunities

Human activity is driving significant changes in global and regional climate systems through the enhanced greenhouse effect (IPCC 2007). Global climate models predict that this anthropogenic forcing will alter both mean climate parameters and the frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events (e.g. heat waves, severe storm events and droughts). Such changes may have significant destabilizing effects, decoupling existing relationships between species, altering species distributions and challenging current management regimes. However, they may also provide significant management opportunities. Many pest species are expected to expand their geographical range in a warmer, more extreme, climate. Despite this, there is likely to be great variation both in pest species responses to changing climatic conditions and impacts on ecological and production systems, and in the effectiveness of current pest management strategies. This implies a need for ongoing monitoring and assessment of pest species responses to environmental change and management at local and regional scales. It also indicates a need for research aimed at identifying potential tipping points (or critical thresholds) in relation to significant meteorological events. This presentation will focus on the role of risk assessment in decision-making for pest species management under uncertainty. Probabilistic modelling approaches, such as Bayesian Belief networks, provide a valuable adjunct to monitoring and evaluation programs. They facilitate the synthesis of current knowledge (including expert opinion), highlight critical knowledge gaps, and provide a basis for both targeted research and adaptive management. Integrated modelling to predict invasive species response to management under variable climatic conditions can be used to identify key opportunities for management which will contribute disproportionately to effective pest species control. Pest species management programs under future climatic regimes are likely to require the capacity for more adaptive and strategic response, and will need to be supported by flexible investment strategies which enable timely (adaptive) responses at critical periods

Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report

Queensland farmers are subject to highly variable climatic conditions, including drought and floods, which can undermine production. Insurance could play an important role in helping Queensland farmers manage their climate risk. However, currently the use of insurance to manage climate related production risk is poorly understood and utilised by farmers. This project aims to address this gap by providing information on climate risks and the role of insurance for managing these. This project conducted focussed reviews on climate risk in agriculture and on how insurance products could be used to address these risks. The project also carried out on-ground surveys from cotton and sugar industry and conducted modelling to assess risks and the role of insurance for cotton and sugar cane farmers in Queensland. Prototype climate assessment risk and reporting tools were also developed. The reviews carried out in this project identified that Queensland’s agricultural sector is highly exposed to production volatility as a result of weather risks. It is our view that the Queensland agricultural sector has an excellent opportunity to provide its farmers with protection against uninsured seasonal risks to crop production. Key climate and farming systems risks were identified by interviewing a total of 55 farmers (23 cotton growers and 32 sugar cane growers) across Queensland. Key climate risks to the cotton industry include hail, drought/dry years (lack of rainfall during planting and season), quality downgrade (discolouration), excessive heat, floods and wet weather (during season and especially during harvest). Similarly, for the sugar industry, key climate risks include, drought, flood, excessive rainfall during harvest, cyclone, pests and disease. Key messages from farmer surveys are that current insurance products available to Queensland farmers (specifically, cotton and sugar cane farmers) may not address critical risks to the production and/or profitability of these systems and that farmers would prefer to have comprehensive insurance products available that cover them against profitability losses across multiple risk factors. A ‘climate and agricultural risk assessment and reporting tool’ (prototype) was developed as part of the project. This ‘tool’ allows quantification of key climate risks, initially for the sugar and cotton industry. The tool provides an option to generate a detail climate risk report based on historical data and a future seasonal climate forecast for an individual location. The tool data also serves as a dataset portal, allowing for the download of data in a required template. Cotton and sugarcane crop models APSIM and DSSAT were employed to simulate the growth and yield for 10 and 12 sites, respectively, across Queensland over the period 1940-2017 for various crop management factors. Comparing the simulated yields (from each model or the mean simulated value from ensemble models) to the observed yield (available at regional scale) the trend in year to year variability is satisfactorily captured for cotton on average, whereas for sugarcane there is a trend to overestimate or underestimate the yield depending on the site. Based on survey findings three prototype insurance products were developed for the cotton industry Insurance products developed were Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during the planting season – August to November; Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during growing season – November to February; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – March to June. Two prototype insurance products were developed for sugar industry. They include; Cyclone Cover: crop damage during cyclone season – November to April; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – June to December. Rainfall-indexed based worked examples were also developed for sugar and cotton industry growers to better appreciate the insurance mechanisms

Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: summary report

Queensland farmers are subject to highly variable climatic conditions, including drought and floods, which can undermine production. Insurance could play an important role in helping Queensland farmers manage their climate risk. However, currently, the use of insurance to manage climate-related production risk is poorly understood and utilised by farmers. This project aims to address this gap by providing information on climate risks and the role of insurance for managing these. This project conducted focused reviews on climate risk in agriculture and on how insurance products could be used to address these risks. The project also carried out on-ground surveys from cotton and sugar industry and conducted modelling to assess risks and the role of insurance for cotton and sugar cane farmers in Queensland. Prototype climate assessment risk and reporting tools were also developed. The reviews carried out in this project identified that Queensland’s agricultural sector is highly exposed to production volatility as a result of weather risks. It is our view that the Queensland agricultural sector has an excellent opportunity to provide its farmers with protection against uninsured seasonal risks to crop production. Key climate and farming systems risks were identified by interviewing a total of 55 farmers (23 cotton growers and 32 sugar cane growers) across Queensland. Key climate risks to the cotton industry include hail, drought/dry years (lack of rainfall during planting and season), quality downgrade (discolouration), excessive heat, floods and wet weather (during the season and especially during harvest). Similarly, for the sugar industry, key climate risks include drought, flood, excessive rainfall during harvest, cyclone, pests and disease. Key messages from farmer surveys are that current insurance products available to Queensland farmers (specifically, cotton and sugar cane farmers) may not address critical risks to the production and/or profitability of these systems and that farmers would prefer to have comprehensive insurance products available that cover them against profitability losses across multiple risk factors. Based on survey findings three prototype insurance products were developed for the cotton industry Insurance products developed were Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during the planting season – August to November; Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during growing season – November to February; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – March to June. Two prototype insurance products were developed for the sugar industry. They include; Cyclone Cover: crop damage during cyclone season – November to April; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – June to December Rainfall-indexed based worked examples were also developed for sugar and cotton industry growers

Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report

Queensland farmers are subject to highly variable climatic conditions, including drought and floods, which can undermine production. Insurance could play an important role in helping Queensland farmers manage their climate risk. However, currently the use of insurance to manage climate related production risk is poorly understood and utilised by farmers. This project aims to address this gap by providing information on climate risks and the role of insurance for managing these. This project conducted focussed reviews on climate risk in agriculture and on how insurance products could be used to address these risks. The project also carried out on-ground surveys from cotton and sugar industry and conducted modelling to assess risks and the role of insurance for cotton and sugar cane farmers in Queensland. Prototype climate assessment risk and reporting tools were also developed. The reviews carried out in this project identified that Queensland’s agricultural sector is highly exposed to production volatility as a result of weather risks. It is our view that the Queensland agricultural sector has an excellent opportunity to provide its farmers with protection against uninsured seasonal risks to crop production. Key climate and farming systems risks were identified by interviewing a total of 55 farmers (23 cotton growers and 32 sugar cane growers) across Queensland. Key climate risks to the cotton industry include hail, drought/dry years (lack of rainfall during planting and season), quality downgrade (discolouration), excessive heat, floods and wet weather (during season and especially during harvest). Similarly, for the sugar industry, key climate risks include, drought, flood, excessive rainfall during harvest, cyclone, pests and disease. Key messages from farmer surveys are that current insurance products available to Queensland farmers (specifically, cotton and sugar cane farmers) may not address critical risks to the production and/or profitability of these systems and that farmers would prefer to have comprehensive insurance products available that cover them against profitability losses across multiple risk factors. A ‘climate and agricultural risk assessment and reporting tool’ (prototype) was developed as part of the project. This ‘tool’ allows quantification of key climate risks, initially for the sugar and cotton industry. The tool provides an option to generate a detail climate risk report based on historical data and a future seasonal climate forecast for an individual location. The tool data also serves as a dataset portal, allowing for the download of data in a required template. Cotton and sugarcane crop models APSIM and DSSAT were employed to simulate the growth and yield for 10 and 12 sites, respectively, across Queensland over the period 1940-2017 for various crop management factors. Comparing the simulated yields (from each model or the mean simulated value from ensemble models) to the observed yield (available at regional scale) the trend in year to year variability is satisfactorily captured for cotton on average, whereas for sugarcane there is a trend to overestimate or underestimate the yield depending on the site. Based on survey findings three prototype insurance products were developed for the cotton industry Insurance products developed were Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during the planting season – August to November; Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during growing season – November to February; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – March to June. Two prototype insurance products were developed for sugar industry. They include; Cyclone Cover: crop damage during cyclone season – November to April; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – June to December. Rainfall-indexed based worked examples were also developed for sugar and cotton industry growers to better appreciate the insurance mechanisms

Solar, wind and geothermal energy applications in agriculture: back to the future?

The agri-food chain consumes about one third of the world’s energy production with about 12% for crop production and nearly 80% for processing, distribution, retail, preparation and cooking (Fig. 1.1) (FAO, 2011b). The agri-food chain also accounts for 80–90% of total global freshwater use (Hoff, 2011) where 70% is for irrigation alone. Additionally, on a global scale, freshwater production consumes nearly 15% of the entire energy production (IEA, 2012). It can therefore be argued that making agriculture and the agri-food supply chain independent from fossil fuel use has huge potential to contribute to global food security and climate protection not only for the next decades, but also for the coming century. Provision of secure, accessible and environmentally sustainable supplies of water, energy and food must thus be a priority. One of the major objectives of theworld’s scientists, farmers, decision-makers and industrialists is to overcome the present dependence on fossil fuels in the agri-food sector. This dependency increases the volatility of food prices and affects economic access to sustenance. For example, Figure 1.2 shows the close interrelationship between the crude oil price index and the cereals price index. An increasing energy demand for cultivation is particularly important in regions with expanding irrigated agriculture using pumped water. This translates to a food-related risk to energy security. The development and commercialization of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal provides great potential to reduce costs in the agri-food sector. For instance, in addition to power generation, the main uses of geothermal waters are for space heating, district heating, spas balneology, aquaculture and greenhouse heating (Lund and Boyd, 2015). However, much work remains to be done to make better use of renewable energy in the agri-food sector. The aim of this introductory chapter is to critically review recent developments in solar, wind and geothermal energy applications in agriculture and the agri-food sector such as processing, distribution, retail, preparation and cooking

Savanna burning methodology for fire management and emissions reduction: a critical review of influencing factors

Savanna fire is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In Australia, savanna fire contributes about 3% of annual GHG emissions reportable to the Kyoto Protocol. In order to reduce GHG emissions from savanna burning, the Australian government has developed and approved a Kyoto compliant savanna controlled burning methodology—the first legal instrument of this kind at a global level—under its Emission Reduction Fund. However, this approved methodology is currently only applicable to nine vegetation fuel types across northern parts of Australia in areas which receive on average over 600 mm rainfall annually, covering only 15.4% of the total land area in Australia.Savanna ecosystems extend across a large proportion of mainland Australia. This paper provides a critical review often key factors that need to be considered in developing a savanna burning methodology applicable to the other parts of Australia. It will also inform discussion in other countries intent on developing similar emissions reduction strategies