Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy

This paper develops a methodology to ascertain the determinants of growth in the Haitian economy. The methodology uses co-integration to identify those variables that can help explain economic activity, measured through GDP. This idea, pioneered by Hamilton and Perez- Quiros (1996), has the advantage of allowing for a smaller data set than the ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The results of this paper show that external and financial variables can provide Haitian policymakers with a good signaling device of the true performance of the economy. These variables are available before GDP, allowing policymakers to take preemptive measures to improve performance of the economy.Granger causality, co-integration, economic growth

Mesures structurelles à prendre pour lutter contre la hausse des prix en Haïti

Le 8 avril 2008, Port-au-Prince et les grandes villes dHaïti furent le théâtre dune rare violence. Des citoyens en colère ont gagné les rues ce jour-là pour protester contre laugmentation des prix des produits alimentaires due à une rareté de la production agricole, en constant déclin. Les producteurs mondiaux voulant tenter lexpérience des biocarburants, le panier de la ménagère haïtienne, composé en majorité de produits importés en a payé les frais. Le gouvernement a réagi en subventionnant certains produits de base mais cette mesure na pas apporté aux consommateurs les soulagements espérés

Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy

Este documento desarrolla una metodología que permite comprobar los factores de crecimiento en la economía haitiana. La metodología utiliza cointegración para identificar las variables, lo que puede ayudar a explicar la actividad económica que se mide a través del PIB. Esta idea, iniciada por Hamilton y Perez-Quiros (1996), tiene la ventaja de promover un procesamiento más pequeño que los que utiliza el National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Los resultados de este documento muestran que las variables externas y financieras permiten que los gobiernos haitianos tengan una buena señalización del verdadero mecanismo de la economía. Estas variables se pueden conseguir antes del PIB instando a los gobiernos haitianos a que tomen medidas preventivas para aumentar el rendimiento de la economía

Collapsing exchange rate regimes in the presence of a parallel market

This paper develops a model of an economy where the fixed exchange rate is overvalued and coexists with a parallel market for foreign currency. Such a situation persists because the parallel marker is used by the central authorities as an instrument to delay policy changes. Using the Haitian experience, this paper estimates a rationing parameter of foreign currency in the official market which translates the extent of tolerance of the parallel market. The paper also produces estimates of onestep-ahead probability of devaluation. Rationing has been severe and the probability of collapse has reached high levels during the period studied.

Exchange Rate Unification Under Non-Credibility: The Haïtian Economy

E58, F31, O54,