UPORABA ANALITIČKOG HIERARHIJSKOG PROCESA U POLJOPRIVREDI

Hierarchical decision models are a general decision support methodology aimed at the classification or evaluation of options that occur in decision-making processes. Decision models are typically developed through the decomposition of complex decision problems into smaller and less complex subproblems. This paper presents an approach to the development and implementation of multicriteria decision model based on Analytical Hierarchy Process – AHP (Expert Choice, EC). Likewise, the AHP is used as a potential multicriteria decision making method for application in agriculture. In order to show the implementation of explained MCDA methods in real situation in agriculture, the application of AHP on a sample model farm is presented in the second part of the article.Hijerarhijski modeli odlučivanja su opće prihvaćena metodologija za klasifikaciju alternative, koje se javljaju u procesu odlučivanja. Modeli su razvijeni postupkom dekompozicije problema u manje kompleksne podprobleme. U ovom radu predstavljamo razvoj i implementaciju višekriterijskog modela, koji bazira na analitičkom hijerarhijskom procesu – AHP (Expert Choice. EC). U tom smislu AHP se javlja kao potencijalni metodološki pristup za potporu donošenju odluka u poljoprivrednom managementu. U radu je demonstrirana aplikacija AHP na realnom problemu odlučivanja u poljoprivredi na primjeru modelnog ekološkog gospodarstva

Application of Computer Supported Multi–criteria Decision Models in Agriculture

Hierarchical multi criteria decision models (MCDM) are a general decision support methodology aimed at the classification or evaluation of options that occur in a decision-making processes. Decision models are typically developed through decomposition of complex decision problems into smaller and less complex sub-problems; the result of such decomposition is a hierarchical structure that consists of attributes and utility functions. Basic concepts of MCDM together with two multi criteria modeling methodologies (expert system DEX-i and analytical hierarchical process with application of Expert Choice decision support software) are presented and discussed. In order to show how the explained methods can be applied to agricultural decision problems, two applications of MCDM (DEX-i and AHP) for organic spelt processing planning problem are presented in detail

Economics of Peppers and Salad Cucumbers Production on an Open Land and in a Protected Space

The research is based on the economic analysis of growing peppers (Capsicum annum L.) and salad cucumbers (Cucumis sativus L.) in an open land and in a protected space. For this purpose the simulation models were developed for the growing of the peppers and salad cucumbers that were based on the technological-economic input data for two growing systems, in the open and in the protected space. The results of the economic analysis show that the growing of peppers and salad cucumbers in the protected space is more profi table than growing them in the open land. The growing of salad cucumbers in the protected space has proven to be more reasonable than growing peppers, as the coefficient of economics (Ce) of growing salad cucumbers reached the value Ce = 1.4, while the value in growing peppers was Ce = 1.1. This was also confirmed with two scenarios that were analysed using the sensitivity analysis

A Case Study on the Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to Assess Agri-Environmental Measures of the Rural Development Programme (RDP 2007–2013) in Slovenia

The reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2003 focused mainly on the economic and environmental challenges. The Rural Development Programme 2007–2013, hereafter RDP, being implemented in Slovenia is therefore aiming at promoting proposed activities that help to improve the rural areas. Agri-environmental measures (AEMs) encourage farmers to make an environmental commitment for a period of at least 5 years aiming at preserving the environment and maintaining the countryside. Because of practising environmental friendly production methods, the farmers might be encountered with more costs and reduction of yield. Therefore, payments are made as compensation. Concentrating only on one of the four pillars of the RDP, “Improvement of environment and the countryside”, this paper attempts to assess the Slovenian agri-environmental measures with the help of the multicriteria decision analysis, that is, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and its supporting software Expert Choice™. In the presented case study, three main criteria and their attributes were determined. With the help of experts (questionnaires), data were collected, which made the assessment possible. The results show that organic fruit, vine and horticultural production are seen as the most important AEM. This is specific for the Republic of Slovenia because of its large amount of area designated as least favoured areas (LFA) that are not suitable for arable farming

THE SIMULATION MODEL FOR COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS ON ORGANIC FARMS

U radu je predstavljena metodologija tehnološko – ekonomskog simulacijskog modela KARSIM 1.0 (DSM) za potporu odlučivanju na ekološkim gospodarstvima. Promatrani sustav je deterministički i integrira kalkulacije ukupnih troškova za individualnu preradu ekoloških proizvoda i financijsku opravdanost investicije analizu troškova i koristi. U radu DSM korišten je za simulaciju prerade gospodarskih proizvoda na dva modela ekološkog gospodarstva prije i poslije investicijskih ulaganja. Rezultati simulacijskog modela koriste se kao parametri inputa za CBA analizu. Za procjenu investicije računali su se neto sadašnja vrijednost (NSV) i interna stopa povratka (IRR). Na bazi parametara inputa za preradu gospodarskih proizvoda (doba konstantnog denarnog toka je 10 godina i interna stopa povratka je 8%), rezultati pokazuju financijsku opravdanost investiranja na oba modela ekološkog gospodarstva. Poslovna alternativa na modelu 2 ekološkog gospodarstva (kombinacija stočarstva, voća i poljoprivredne proizvodnje) rezultira najpovoljnijom NPV vrijednosti (NPV = 7 705,26 €).The paper describes the methodology of technological and economic simulation model KARSIM 1.0 (DSM) application for decision-making support on organic farms. The model is deterministic and integrates the enterprise budget calculations for individual organic farm product and Cost-benefit Analysis. The DSM was applied on two sample organic farms for simulation of different business alternatives before and after investment into farm product processing. The simulation model results present input parameter for Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA). Two basic financial indicators were calculated: Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). At presumed model input parameters (after 10 years of constant cash flow and 8% discount rate) the results show that investments into farm food processing on both sample organic farms are financially feasible. The business alternative on sample organic farm 2 (the combination of animal, fruit and field crop food processing) results with the maximal NPV value (NPV = 7 705,26 €)

The Economic Feasibility of Conventional and Organic Farm Production in Slovenia

The aim of the research was the comparison of economic feasibility of most common conventional and organic farm production in Slovenia. The methodology of an integrated deterministic technologic-economic simulation system KARSIM 1.0 (DSM) application for cost analysis and decision-making support on farms is described in this article. The direct simulation model result is an individual conventional or organic farm product enterprise budget. The DSM consists of 148 deterministic production simulation models that enable different types of costs and financial feasibility calculations for conventional and organic production and food processing. The developed simulation model enables economical evaluation of some most important economic parameters (breakeven price, breakeven yield, financial result, total revenue and coefficient of economics). In conventional farming system the most suitable farm product is potato (Ke = 1.52), followed by milk and maize production (Ke = 1.10), wheat production (Ke = 1.06) and suckling cows production (Ke = 1.02). The husked spelt production is in conventional farming system economically infeasible (Ke= 0.82). In organic farming system the most feasible farm product is husked spelt (Ke = 1.56), followed by potato (Ke = 1.15), milk (Ke = 1.04) and suckling cows production (Ke = 1.03). Maize (Ke = 0.90) and wheat production (Ke = 0.83) are economically infeasible

Razvoj modelov sistemske dinamike za podporo odločanju pri pridelavi in predelavi sladkorne pese

Background: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. The abolishment of the quota system will open new investment opportunities in countries that were forced to abandon sugar industry as the result of the reform in 2006. Present paper describes the modeling of sugar beet production and its processing into sugar for purpose of decision support. Methods: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model impacts of regional sugar factory investment. We present two basic concepts of system dynamics models at causal loop diagram level. The first holistic model deals with regional planning of new product development and the second one deals with factory model. Results: The holistic model presented main feedback loops and dynamics of main elements in the case of regional investment into sugar industry. The factory model considered the specifics of the beet processing which is a) limited period of beet processing and b) initial adjustment to the production capacity at the start of the production season Conclusions: The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the whole sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level.Ozadje: Sladkorna pesa je glavna kultura, ki se uporablja za proizvodnjo sladkorja v našem klimatskem pasu. Ukinitev Sistema kvot z letom 2016 odpira možnosti ponovne vzpostavitve proizvodnje v članicah EU, ki so se ji bile prisiljene odreči v letu 2006. V članku predstavljamo možnost uporabe modelov sistemske dinamike za potrebe podpore odločanju pri investicijah v sladkorno industrijo. Metoda: Na nivoju vzročnega diagrama predstavljamo 2 modela sistemske dinamike. Prvi je holistični in predstavlja primer ocenejvanja efektov investicije v sladkorno insustrijo. Drugi model se pa ukvarja z delovanjem tovarne. Rezultati: Holistični model predstavlja vse povratne zanke v ssitemu sladkorne industrije na regionalnem nivoju. Model proizvodnje pa se ukvarja z delovanjem tovarne. Zaključk: Model omogoča iskanje odgovorov na strateška vprašanja in se bo uporabljal pri ocenejvanju scenarijev investicij v proizvodnjo sladkorja in njihovega vpliva ne proizvodno-ekonomske in okoljske parametre