The Implications of World Trade Liberalization on Agricultural Trade and Food Security: A Case Study of Sudan

This paper assesses and quantifies the consequences of world trade liberalization in agriculture on trade and food security of Sudan. Sudan, with the agricultural sector as the main sector of economy, is characterized by its small open economy, and is classified as one of the least developed countries. Thus, Sudan becomes more vulnerable to any changes in international agricultural markets. The liberalization of international agricultural trade has a great influence on Sudan's food security and on the whole economy. An extended form of a multi-market model for Sudan is developed and used for the analysis. The model embodies important characteristics of agriculture in Sudan like substitution effects and stages of production. As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth.International Relations/Trade,

Implications of a Doha Agreement on Agricultural Markets in Sudan

The latest round of multilateral trade negotiations was launched at the ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization in Doha, Qatar, in November 2001. Agriculture is a major item on the agenda for the Doha Round. The primary focus is on the three “pillars” of the Uruguay Round agreement—domestic support, market access, and export competition. The framework for a final agreement was finalized at a Ministerial meeting in Geneva in July 2004, but contains few details on modalities (e.g., the formula to be used for reductions in tariffs/increases in tariff-rate quotas, quantitative limitations on domestic support, and the schedule for the elimination of export subsidies). Detailed proposals on a number of these issues were put forward in October 2005 by the European Union and the United States, in addition to the G10 and G20 groups of countries. The Doha Round negotiations have since run into several major hurdles, and it is unclear at this time if, or when, an agreement might be reached. Nevertheless, the range of alternatives for key parameters is becoming increasingly clear. In this paper we analyze empirically the implications of the provisions of a Doha agreement for agricultural markets in Sudan. The analysis is based on the PEATSim model (Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulator) developed by the Penn State University in collaboration with the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This dynamic, multi-country, multi-commodity model covers 35 of the major traded agricultural commodities and contains a detailed representation of markets and policies in twelve countries/regions that are particularly significant for world agricultural trade. The model is used to analyze the US, EU, and G20 negotiating proposals from October 2005. The PEATSim model has previously been used to analyze a number of agricultural trade and policy reform scenarios, including global agricultural trade liberalization in all commodities, trade liberalization in global dairy markets, and trade liberalization in coarse grain markets. Sudan is not a currently member of the WTO although it has been in the accession process since 1994. Assuming that Sudan continues outside of WTO membership, its trade policies will not be directly affected by a Doha agreement. But Sudan could be affected significantly by changes in global agricultural markets. Preliminary results using PEATSim indicate an increase in Sudanese production and exports of course grains, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and beef due to increases in world prices. Imports of several products increase, especially wheat, rice, and poultry meat. On the whole the preliminary results suggest that Sudanese agriculture should benefit from a Doha agreement.Doha Agreement, Sudan, agricultural markets, trade policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy,

Analysis of Factors Constraining the Competitiveness of Sesame Export in the Sudan

The paper analyzed sesame export performance and competitiveness and its main constraints in Sudan. Vector error correction model was applied using data from 1970-2014. The results showed that low yield, area variation and unstable fluctuating exchange rate are the main factors affecting sesame export earnings in the long run, and area variation in the short run. Improvement of sesame yield and stabilized exchange rate will have positive impact on sesame export value in the long run, while expansion of area under sesame production could have negative influence on sesame export value due to Sudan large share of sesame export in the world market. In order to improve foreign exchange earnings from sesame export, Sudan should address the problem of low yield, area variation and fluctuating exchange rate especially in the long run. The paper recommends adopting economic policies that lead to improvement of sesame yield, control of area under sesame production and to stabilize exchange rate of Sudanese currency

The Implications of World Trade Liberalization on Agricultural Trade and Food Security: A Case Study of Sudan

This paper assesses and quantifies the consequences of world trade liberalization in agriculture on trade and food security of Sudan. Sudan, with the agricultural sector as the main sector of economy, is characterized by its small open economy, and is classified as one of the least developed countries. Thus, Sudan becomes more vulnerable to any changes in international agricultural markets. The liberalization of international agricultural trade has a great influence on Sudan's food security and on the whole economy. An extended form of a multi-market model for Sudan is developed and used for the analysis. The model embodies important characteristics of agriculture in Sudan like substitution effects and stages of production. As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth

Implications of a Doha Agreement on Agricultural Markets in Sudan

The latest round of multilateral trade negotiations was launched at the ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization in Doha, Qatar, in November 2001. Agriculture is a major item on the agenda for the Doha Round. The primary focus is on the three “pillars” of the Uruguay Round agreement—domestic support, market access, and export competition. The framework for a final agreement was finalized at a Ministerial meeting in Geneva in July 2004, but contains few details on modalities (e.g., the formula to be used for reductions in tariffs/increases in tariff-rate quotas, quantitative limitations on domestic support, and the schedule for the elimination of export subsidies). Detailed proposals on a number of these issues were put forward in October 2005 by the European Union and the United States, in addition to the G10 and G20 groups of countries. The Doha Round negotiations have since run into several major hurdles, and it is unclear at this time if, or when, an agreement might be reached. Nevertheless, the range of alternatives for key parameters is becoming increasingly clear. In this paper we analyze empirically the implications of the provisions of a Doha agreement for agricultural markets in Sudan. The analysis is based on the PEATSim model (Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulator) developed by the Penn State University in collaboration with the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This dynamic, multi-country, multi-commodity model covers 35 of the major traded agricultural commodities and contains a detailed representation of markets and policies in twelve countries/regions that are particularly significant for world agricultural trade. The model is used to analyze the US, EU, and G20 negotiating proposals from October 2005. The PEATSim model has previously been used to analyze a number of agricultural trade and policy reform scenarios, including global agricultural trade liberalization in all commodities, trade liberalization in global dairy markets, and trade liberalization in coarse grain markets. Sudan is not a currently member of the WTO although it has been in the accession process since 1994. Assuming that Sudan continues outside of WTO membership, its trade policies will not be directly affected by a Doha agreement. But Sudan could be affected significantly by changes in global agricultural markets. Preliminary results using PEATSim indicate an increase in Sudanese production and exports of course grains, peanuts, cotton, sunflowers, and beef due to increases in world prices. Imports of several products increase, especially wheat, rice, and poultry meat. On the whole the preliminary results suggest that Sudanese agriculture should benefit from a Doha agreement

Sudan’s Proposal to Accede to the WTO: Impacts on Agricultural Markets

Sudan is currently negotiating its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In order to benefit from its accession to the WTO, Sudan should reorient its agricultural policy towards increasing global competitiveness by raising agricultural productivity, reducing direct and indirect taxation of the agricultural sector, and cutting fees imposed on agricultural production and exports

The role of COMESA in promoting intra-regional agricultural trade: Case study of Sudan

African countries have created many regional trade agreements with the economic objectives of reducing trade barriers and encouraging economic growth. The COMESA is an example of regional integration singed on 1993 by 19 African countries including Sudan. COMESA represents a chance for member countries to enhance their economic and social relations through increasing intra-trade. The objective of this paper is to assess the role of COMESA in promoting intra-regional agricultural trade between Sudan and COMESA countries. A multi-market model with Armington non-linear specification was applied. The paper results showed that there is a great potential for Sudan to increase its agricultural exports to other COMESA countries. The domestic agricultural markets are expected to be hampered by imports surge and increase in competition, while the producers of agricultural export commodities will be better off. In order to compete and benefit from potential in the COMESA markets, the paper recommended improving efficiency in the Sudanese agricultural sector through increasing productivity, lowering cost of production, enhancing marketing services, attaining economies of scale and attracting foreign investment