Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios : the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa

Background: Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. Methods: The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. Results: These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Conclusion: Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa

Assessment of National Natural Resources Policies Implementation in Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania

The Kilimanjaro landscape provides a range of ecosystem services such as water, local climate modification, tourism and support of local livelihoods. Land degradation has, however, seriously threatened the landscape ability in providing these services, leading to decreased land productivity This paper is based on a study conducted in Kilimanjaro region to provide an understanding of how effectively natural resources-related policies are implemented by land users, and how they practically guide sustainable land management. Data collection involved interviews with purposively selected progressive farmers using a structured questionnaire, in-depth interviews with key informants, mainly district officials, NGOs and CBOs representatives and focus group discussions, as well as review of relevant literature. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS, while qualitative data were triangulated using content analysis. Findings indicated that there are several policies related to natural resource management that are both cross-cutting and cross-sectoral in nature. While majority of respondents were aware of the various policies, male respondents were more aware than females, influenced by customary male dominance in natural resource issues. The policies are implemented at various levels, taking different forms and involve various stakeholders, including individuals, groups, NGOs, CBOs and public institutions. Generally, communities are actively participating in SLM activities though influenced by several pull and push factors in policy implementation in the area. The paper argues that for effective implementation of the natural resources policies there is a need to review and harmonise the sectoral policies with changing internal and external conditions such as economic transformation, globalization and climate change.

Assessment of the Extent to which Productive Sector Policies Mainstream Sustainable Land Management Principles

This paper provides an assessment of the extent to which productive sector policies mainstream sustainable land management (SLM) principles and suggests how mainstreaming of these principles could be strengthened and be more effective in Kilimanjaro region. Primary data was collected using qualitative methods including in-depth interviews with key informants and focus group discussions. Key informants included government officials, SLM project staff, NGOs and representatives of communities. Secondary data was gathered from review of relevant literature including government policies, strategies, project documents and other research materials. The data collected were analysed using content analysis and synthesised to determine the extent to which the productive sector policies mainstream sustainable land management principles. Findings indicate that several relevant NRM sectors have mainstreamed SLM principles, namely improved land productivity, improved livelihood and improved ecosystems. The degree to which these policies have mainstreamed SLM principles vary from adequately, moderately, and slightly. Despite the reported degree of mainstreaming the SLM principles in sector polices several challenges undermine the process, including land scarcity, land tenure, inadequate enforcement of policies, land use conflicts, human and financial resources constraints, and climate change. Various stakeholders are involved in SLM initiatives, ranging from local communities to international organisations. The diversity of stakeholders requires well coordinated efforts so as to maximise synergies and complementarities between the various actors. Also more effort has to be done at policy level to ensure that all sector policies adequately address sustainability in natural resources management to ensure that land productivity, livelihoods and ecosystems are improved.

Implication of Changing Climate on Tourism Development in Southern Tanzania: The Case of Ruaha-Rungwa Landscape

East Africa tourism is one of the most successful sectors in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), mainly attributed to the diverse natural landscapes and biological resources, creating special tourism assets. However, despite its importance, the tourism industry, particularly in the southern circuit of Tanzania, has been significantly affected by climate change impacts. The effects of climate change have been detrimental to both the environment and socio-economic activities such as loss of species, disturbances to the timing and patterns of tourism seasons, and disruptions to various tourism facilities and activities. This study examines the impacts of climate and non-climatic factors on tourism development in southern circuit of Tanzania focusing on Ruaha-Rungwa Landscape (RRL). The study adopted a mixed-method approach that uses both secondary and primary data collected through household surveys, interviews Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and field observations. The sample size included 234 household, 110 key informants and 44 FGD participants. Data analysis was done using EXLSTAT and Mann–Kendall Trend Analysis to analyse climate trends. SPSS was used to analyse quantitative primary data, while content and thematic analyses were used to analyse qualitative primary data. This study observed nortable changes in climatic conditions over the past 30 years within the study area. These changes includes unreliable rainfall patterns, reduced rainfall, occurrence of rainfall extremes events and increased temperature especially in the last decade in Ruaha National Park. Further, climate change impacts have negatively affected tourism development in the study area, largely related to eruption of wildlife diseases and decline of wildlife population, loss of revenue attributed to early closing of tourism seasonality and destruction of infrastructures such as the tourist amenities. Furthermore, non-climatic factors, such as budget constraints, inadequate investments, poor infrastructure, and uncompetitive position, has observed to hinder the development of tourism activities. The low development of the tourism activities in the area can be attributed to low adaptive capacity of the stressed ecological processes to support provision of ecosystems goods and services. The study recommends that in averting the impact of climate change on tourism development, both climatic and non-climatic stressors must be effectively considered during the planning processes