APPLICATION OF POLYNOMIAL TRANSLATION METHOD TO PREDICTION OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS

[[abstract]]Statistics of 10 minute mean wind speeds have been investigated for the simulation of annual maxima in previous researches. Yearly variations of skewness and kurtosis are found highly correlated in most sites. Extremely large skewness or kurtosis values are linearly proportional to annual maxima. In this research, the polynomial translation method is applied. The approximation sheet proposed by [Edgeworth (1898)] is modified to provide a wider range of moment parameter generations. Mean and standard deviation of four moments are calculated to examine the effect on the scale and location parameters of extreme value distribution model. Once the moment parameters are properly estimated for a specific site, even short of sample number, such prediction of annual maxima can provide good information for wind hazard model.[[sponsorship]]淡江大學土木工程學系[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencetkucampus]]台北校園[[conferencedate]]20140312~20140314[[booktype]]紙本[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]Taipei, Taiwa

Effects of Higher Moments on Distributions of Annual Maximum Wind Speeds

[[abstract]]The relation between higher order moments of 10-minute mean wind speeds and the probability distribution of annual maximum wind speeds have been examined by utilizing observed wind data in Japan. It is found that the four moment parameters determine the tail characteristics of extreme value distributions and these moment parameters vary yearly and regionally. The variations of skewness and kurtosis play significant roles in particular. When the mean and the standard deviation of four moments of parent distribution are appropriately estimated, the simulation of annual maximum wind speeds provides a good correspondence to the distribution of observed annual maximum wind speeds. The possibility of good estimation of annual maximum wind speeds may be expected from a short period of data, such as 5 years when the variations of four moments are properly estimated as a representative one for long-term statistics.[[notice]]補正完畢[[incitationindex]]EI[[booktype]]紙

Application of Polynomial Translation Method to Prediction of Annual Maximum Wind Speeds

[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencedate]]20110710~20110715[[booktype]]電子版[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]Amsterdam, Netherlan

A micro snake-like robot for small pipe inspection

The goal of this research is development of a micro robot which can negotiate pipes whose diameter varies widely. The robot mechanism is based on &#34;snaking drive&#34;. First, in section 1 to 4, basic characteristics of the snaking drive are discussed: the principle of the snaking drive is shown, theoretical fundamental formulas are derived, and the motions of the robot are simulated. Second, in section 5, a micro robot was designed, fabricated and tested. And fundamental experiments of the robot are shown. Third, in section 6, two application experiments are shown: one is a stabilization of camera image, and the other is a robot steering at branches. The robot moved in pipes whose diameter varies between 18 mm to 100 mm with the maximum speed of 36 mm/s. And the robot could negotiate T-branches and L-bends of pipes.</p

Traditional Chinese Medicine for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

More and more patients have been diagnosed as having chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) in recent years. Western drug use for this syndrome is often associated with many side-effects and little clinical benefit. As an alternative medicine, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has provided some evidences based upon ancient texts and recent studies, not only to offer clinical benefit but also offer insights into their mechanisms of action. It has perceived advantages such as being natural, effective and safe to ameliorate symptoms of CFS such as fatigue, disordered sleep, cognitive handicaps and other complex complaints, although there are some limitations regarding the diagnostic standards and methodology in related clinical or experimental studies. Modern mechanisms of TCM on CFS mainly focus on adjusting immune dysfunction, regulating abnormal activity in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and serving as an antioxidant. It is vitally important for the further development to establish standards for ‘zheng’ of CFS, i.e. the different types of CFS pathogenesis in TCM, to perform randomized and controlled trials of TCM on CFS and to make full use of the latest biological, biochemical, molecular and immunological approaches in the experimental design

Difference between 5A score and the HOPE score

Recently, a letter to the editor was published to comment on the 5A score which is the prediction model for accidental hypothermia patients comparing the HOPE score. In this letter, we responded to the comments to clarify the difference between the 5A score and the HOPE score

External validation of 5A score model for predicting in-hospital mortality among the accidental hypothermia patients: JAAM-Hypothermia study 2018–2019 secondary analysis

[Background] The 5A score including five components “Age, Activities of daily living, Arrest, Acidemia and Albumin” was developed as an easy-to-use screening tool for predicting in-hospital mortality among patients with accidental hypothermia. However, the external validity of the 5A score has not yet been evaluated. We aimed to perform an external validation of the 5A score model. [Method] This secondary analysis of the multicenter, prospective cohort Japanese Association for Acute Medicine-Hypothermia Study (2018–2019), which was conducted at 87 and 89 institutions throughout Japan, collected data from December 2018 to February 2019 and from December 2019 to February 2020. Adult accidental hypothermia patients whose body temperature was 35 °C or less were included in this analysis. The probability of in-hospital mortality was calculated using a logistic regression model of the 5A score. The albumin was not recorded in this database; thus, it was imputed by estimation. Predictions were compared with actual observations to evaluate the calibration of the model. Furthermore, decision-curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical usefulness. [Results] Of the 1363 patients registered in the database, data of 1139 accidental hypothermia patients were included for analysis. The median [interquartile range] age was 79 [68–87] years, and there were 625 men (54.9%) in the study cohort. The predicted probability and actual observation by risk groups produced the following results: low 7% (5.4–8.6), mild 19.1% (17.4–20.8), moderate 33.2% (29.9–36.5), and high 61.9% (55.9–67.9) predicted risks, and the low 12.4% (60/483), mild 17.7% (59/334), moderate 32.6% (63/193), and high 69% (89/129) observed mortality. These results indicated that the model was well calibrated. Decision-curve analysis visually indicated the clinical utility of the 5A score model. [Conclusion] This study indicated that the 5A score model using estimated albumin value has external validity in a completely different dataset from that used for the 5A model development. The 5A score is potentially helpful to predict the mortality risk and may be one of the valuable information for discussing the treatment strategy with patients and their family members

A Kampo Medicine, Boi-ogi-to, Inhibits Obesity in Ovariectomized Rats

In women facing menopause, end of menstrual activity is accompanied by lower levels of estrogen and gradual weight gain. Postmenopausal weight gain sounds an alarm for women's health and may lead to hyperlipidemia, a lipid increase and glucose intolerance. These phenomena are connected to lifestyle-related diseases such as hypertension, type II diabetes mellitus, arteriosclerosis and metabolic syndrome, making it essential to prevent weight gain in women. A Kampo medicine, Boi-ogi-to, is traditionally used to treat obese conditions, but the mechanism has not yet been investigated. In this experiment, we tested the antiobesity properties of Boi-ogi-to in ovariectomized rats by measuring changes of serum cytokine levels and adipocytokines in fat cells. After treatment with this extract for 6 weeks (20-week-old rats), we found that there was a significant weight decrease in rats treated with Boi-ogi-to as compared with that in the control group. Serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α levels increased significantly in a dose-dependent manner. Gene expression of adipose tissue in uterus also dose dependently showed a significant increase of TNF-α levels, suggesting that secretion of TNF-α by fat cells might play a role in the ability of Boi-ogi-to to inhibit weight gain. While peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor-γ and adiponectin levels did not show a significant difference as compared with those in the control, levels of mRNA expression showed a tendency to increase dose dependently. Resistin did not show any significant change. These results suggest that Boi-ogi-to might be useful for the prevention of obesity that occurs in women with reduction of estrogen