Development of novel hybridized models for urban flood susceptibility mapping

Abstract Floods in urban environments often result in loss of life and destruction of property, with many negative socio-economic effects. However, the application of most flood prediction models still remains challenging due to data scarcity. This creates a need to develop novel hybridized models based on historical urban flood events, using, e.g., metaheuristic optimization algorithms and wavelet analysis. The hybridized models examined in this study (Wavelet-SVR-Bat and Wavelet-SVR-GWO), designed as intelligent systems, consist of a support vector regression (SVR), integrated with a combination of wavelet transform and metaheuristic optimization algorithms, including the grey wolf optimizer (GWO), and the bat optimizer (Bat). The efficiency of the novel hybridized and standalone SVR models for spatial modeling of urban flood inundation was evaluated using different cutoff-dependent and cutoff-independent evaluation criteria, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Accuracy (A), Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), Misclassification Rate (MR), and F-score. The results demonstrated that both hybridized models had very high performance (Wavelet-SVR-GWO: AUC = 0.981, A = 0.92, MCC = 0.86, MR = 0.07; Wavelet-SVR-Bat: AUC = 0.972, A = 0.88, MCC = 0.76, MR = 0.11) compared with the standalone SVR (AUC = 0.917, A = 0.85, MCC = 0.7, MR = 0.15). Therefore, these hybridized models are a promising, cost-effective method for spatial modeling of urban flood susceptibility and for providing in-depth insights to guide flood preparedness and emergency response services

Development of a novel hybrid multi-boosting neural network model for spatial prediction of urban flood

Abstract In this study, a new hybridized machine learning algorithm for urban flood susceptibility mapping, named MultiB-MLPNN, was developed using a multi-boosting technique and MLPNN. The model was tested in Amol City, Iran, a data-scarce city in an ungauged area which is prone to severe flood inundation events and currently lacks flood prevention infrastructure. Performance of the hybridized model was compared with that of a standalone MLPNN model, random forest and boosted regression trees. Area under the curve, efficiency, true skill statistic, Matthews correlation coefficient, misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity were used to evaluate model performance. In validation, the MultiB-MLPNN model showed the best predictive performance. The hybridized MultiB-MLPNN model is thus useful for generating realistic flood susceptibility maps for data-scarce urban areas. The maps can be used to develop risk-reduction measures to protect urban areas from devastating floods, particularly where available data are insufficient to support physically based hydrological or hydraulic models

TET:an automated tool for evaluating suitable check-dam sites based on sediment trapping efficiency

Abstract Sediment control is important for supplying clean water. Although check dams control sediment yield, site selection for check dams based on the sediment trapping efficiency (TE) is often complex and time-consuming. Currently, a multi-step trial-and-error process is used to find the optimal sediment TE for check dam construction, which limits this approach in practice. To cope with this challenge, we developed a user-friendly, cost- and time-efficient geographic information system (GIS)-based tool, the trap efficiency tool (TET), in the Python programming language. We applied the tool to two watersheds, the Hableh-Rud and the Poldokhtar, in Iran. To identify suitable sites for check dams, four scenarios (S1: TE ≥ 60%, S2: TE ≥ 70%, S3: TE ≥ 80%, S4: TE ≥ 90%) were tested. TET identified 189, 117, 96, and 77 suitable sites for building check dams in S1, S2, S3, and S4, respectively, in the Hableh-Rud watershed, and 346, 204, 156, and 60 sites in S1, S2, S3, and S4, respectively, in the Poldokhtar watershed. Evaluation of 136 existing check dams in the Hableh-Rud watershed indicated that only 10% and 5% were well-located and these were in the TE classes of 80–90% and ≥90%, respectively. In the Poldokhtar watershed, only 11% and 8% of the 207 existing check dams fell into TE classes 80–90% and ≥90%, respectively. Thus, the conventional approach for locating suitable sites at which check dams should be constructed is not effective at reaching suitable sediment control efficiency. Importantly, TET provides valuable insights for site selection of check dams and can help decision makers avoid monetary losses incurred by inefficient check-dam performance

Evaluating the evolution of ECMWF precipitation products using observational data for Iran:from ERA40 to ERA5

Abstract European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA), one of the most widely used precipitation products, has evolved from ERA-40 to ERA-20CM, ERA-20C, ERA-Interim, and ERA5. Studies evaluating the performance of individual ERA products cannot adequately assess the evolution of the products. We compared the performance of all ERA precipitation products at daily, monthly, and annual data (1980–2018) using more than 2100 Iran precipitation gauges. Results indicated that ERA-40 performed worst, followed by ERA-20CM, which showed only minor improvements over ERA-40. ERA-20C considerably outperformed its predecessors, benefiting from the assimilation of observational data. Although several previous studies have reported full superiority of ERA5 over ERA-Interim, our results revealed several shortcomings in ERA5 compared with the ERA-Interim estimates. Both ERA-Interim and ERA5 performed best overall, with ERA-Interim showing better statistical and categorical skill scores, and ERA5 performing better in estimating extreme precipitations. These results suggest that the accuracy of ERA precipitation products has improved from ERA-40 to ERA-Interim, but not consistently from ERA-Interim to ERA5. This study employed a grid-grid comparison approach by first creating a gridded reference data set through the spatial aggregation of point source observations, however, the results from a point-grid approach showed no change in the overall ranking of products (despite the slight changes in the error index values). These findings are useful for model development at a global scale and for hydrological applications in Iran