Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy

This paper analyzes the effects of oil-price shocks from a general equilibrium standpoint. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, estimated by Bayesian methods for the Chilean economy. The model explicitly includes oil in the consumption basket and also in the technology used by domestic firms. With the estimated model we simulate how monetary policy and other variables would respond to an oil-price shock under the policy rule that best describes the behavior of the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). We also simulate the counterfactual responses in a flexible prices and wages equilibrium, and under alternative monetary frameworks. We show that a 13% increase in the real price of oil leads to a fall in output of about 0.5% and an increase in inflation of about 0.4%. The contractionary effect of the oil shock is mainly due to the endogenous tightening of the monetary policy.

The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. Our results show that foreign shocks and domestic supply shock account for a large share of output fluctuations over the last 20 years. Relatively tight domestic monetary conditions have contributed to contain inflationary pressures arising from other shocks, namely a slowdown in productivity by mid 90s. Foreign factors are also behind the large swings exhibited by the real exchange rate, although a monetary contraction in 1998 explains part of the delayed adjustment of the exchange rate in response to effects of the Asian crisis. The tight monetary policy around 1998 also contributes to the slow recovery of the employment afterwards.

Non-radial pulsations in the Be/X binaries 4U0115+63 and SAXJ2103.5+4545

The discovery of non-radial pulsations (NRP) in the Be/X binaries of the Magellanic Clouds (MC, eg. Fabrycky 2005, Coe et al. 2005, Schmidtke & Cowley 2005) provided a new approach to understand these complex systems, and, at the same time, favoured the synergy between two different fields: stellar pulsations and X-ray binaries. This breakthrough was possible thanks to the MACHO and OGLE surveys. However, in our Galaxy, only two Be/X have been reported to show NRP: GROJ2058+42 (Kiziloglu et al. 2007) and LSI+61 235 (Sarty et al. 2009). Our objective is to study the short-term variability of Galactic Be/X binaries, compare them to the Be/X of the MC and to the isolated Galactic Be observed with CoRoT and Kepler. We present preliminary results of two Be/X stars, namely 4U0115+63 and SAXJ2103.5+4545 showing multiperiodicity and periodicity respectively, most probably produced by non-radial pulsations.Comment: 2 pages, 2 figures, IAUS 272 "Active OB stars: structure, evolution, mass loss and critical limits" conference, Paris, July 2010, submitte

What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries’ current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand shocks account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand, fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Counterfactual experiments indicate that (i) a peso denomination of the Chilean external debt would reduce the impact of external shocks on the exchange rate and domestic variables, and the influence of monetary policy on the current account; and (ii) more or less aggressive monetary policy in New Zealand offers little scope for stabilizing the exchange rate and the current account.

What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries’ current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand shocks account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand, fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Counterfactual experiments indicate that (i) a peso denomination of the Chilean external debt would reduce the impact of external shocks on the exchange rate and domestic variables, and the influence of monetary policy on the current account; and (ii) more or less aggressive monetary policy in New Zealand offers little scope for stabilizing the exchange rate and the current account.

Dynamics of Price Adjustments: Evidence From Micro Level Data for Chile

This paper characterizes the dynamics of price adjustments in Chile using data at the establishment level of goods in the CPI basket. Our results show that nominal rigidities are lower when measured at micro-level compared to estimates based on macro data. The frequency of price adjustments appears to be relatively stable over the sample period 1999-2005. On the other hand, if we decompose price adjustments in upward and downward changes, we observe that these frequencies of adjustments for some groups of products are correlated with the level of aggregate inflation. Thus, the data shows that the intensive and extensive margins of price adjustment play a role in determining price dynamics. Finally, we find a considerable degree of synchronization in price adjustments across establishments and a moderate increase in price dispersion since 1999

Servicios ambientales, agua y economía

Los servicios ambientales (SA) asociados a los ecosistemas naturales están seriamente amenazados por acciones locales y por el calentamiento global. El SA asociado al agua y su efecto sobre calidad y cantidad en cuencas hidrográficas aportantes a acueductos y sistemas de riego, son de gran importancia económica y social. Para Bogotá-Colombia el SA de los páramos y bosque nublado en la cuenca de Chingaza representa US$18,2 millones anuales. Para el abastecimiento de agua a la ciudad de Quito-Ecuador, el efecto negativo del cambio climático (CC) asociado a la contracción de los glaciares representa un incremento en la inversión de un 31$18.2 million per year. For water supply in the city of Quito-Ecuador, the negative effect of climate change (CC) related to the contraction of glaciers represents a 31% increase in investments versus the scenario without CC. Measures must be taken to ensure the permanence of ES and mitigate the effects of CC

Reverse logistics in the editorial sector: An exploratory study

Nowadays, the Reverse Logistics field is becoming very important. On one hand, laws are imposing companies to be responsible for the contamination made by their products. On the other hand, companies have discovered the profits derived from a good Reverse Logistics process. This paper is the result of the work done by a group of companies from the Spanish Editorial sector to understand and improve their Reverse Logistics process. The paper describes the characteristics of the Reverse Logistics process in this sector and the improvements identified by the “work group”.Reverse logistics, returns, supply chain management, case study, editorial industry

The Financial Accelerator Under Learning and The Role of Monetary Policy

Financial frictions have been shown to play an important role amplifying business cycles fluctuations. In this paper we show that the financial accelerator mechanism, analyzed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilrchrist (1999), combined with adaptive learning can amplify business cycle fluctuations significantly as the balance sheet channel interacts with the presence of endogenous asset price “bubbles”. These large business cycle fluctuations are amplified in a non-linear way by the size of the shocks and by the degree of financial fragility in the economy determined by its leverage. Our preliminary results indicate that even in the presence of endogenous bubbles, responding aggressively to inflation reduces output and inflation volatility. If the central bank adjusts its policy instrument in response to asset price fluctuations, it may reduce output volatility and even inflation volatility in the short run. However, that monetary policy conduct leads to a surge in inflation several periods after the shocks. A policy that aggressively responds to changes in asset prices may marginally reduce output volatility with respect to a policy that reacts aggressively to inflation, but also at the cost of generating inflationary pressures.

Mejora del proceso de compras en una institución educativa universitaria para disminuir los pedidos no atendidos 2022

La institución en estudio cuenta con más de 20 años de vida institucional, atiende a una comunidad aproximada de 12 000 integrantes entre estudiantes, docentes, administrativos y mantenimiento. La investigación es de tipo aplicada, circunscrita en los pedidos no atendidos del proceso de compra, se planteó como objetivo general, mejorar el proceso de compras y como objetivos específicos, realizar el diagnóstico del proceso de compras, modelar la propuesta de mejora del proceso de compras, finalmente evaluar la factibilidad de la propuesta. Para el análisis se aplicaron los instrumentos como mapeo de procesos, entrevistas, encuestas, revisión de datos históricos, flujogramas etc. descubriendo que actualmente no se atiende un 20% del total de los pedidos generados, se identificó las causas utilizando el Diagrama de Ishikawa. Se propone la mejora del proceso de compras, implementando alertas en la trazabilidad del proceso, automatizar el proceso de compras, mejorar con los proveedores en base a SRM y aprobación de las órdenes de compra emitidas según el monto a comprar, en base a la herramienta BPM y realizar un modelamiento del proceso de mejora con el modelador Bizagi. Con el estudio se obtiene una mejora en la atención de los pedidos del 80% al 95%, disminución del lead time de los proveedores en 25%, implementar un formato estandarizado precisando las especificaciones técnicas de insumos mejorando en 50%, optimizar el uso de los artículos en almacén en 1.85% desechando los artículos obsoletos.The institution under study has more than 20 years of academic service, it attends to a community of approximately 12,000 people including students, teachers, administration and maintenance. The research takes on an applied approach, circumscribed in the requests not attended from the purchasing process, the general objective was set. This included the improvement of the purchasing process and specific objectives such as realize diagnostics of the process, modulate the proposition for the improvement and evaluate the ease in which the plan can be implemented. For this analysis different instruments were applied such as process mapping, interviews, surveys, historic analysis, flowcharts, etc. The results showed that currently 20% of the requests generated are left unattended. Using Ishikawa’s Diagram, the causes were identified. It is proposed that the purchasing process should implement traceability alerts and automation. This proposal also included improving watt the suppliers based on the SRM, approval of the requests issued from the whole purchase based on the BPM tool and realize a model of the improved process with Bizagi simulator. With this study, the following advances can be reached. An improvement of 80 to 95% can be obtained for completion of packages, a 25% decrease in lead time of suppliers can be reached, implementing a standard format pin-pointing the specific input techniques improves the based package completion of 80-95% by 50%, and discarding obsolete articles optimizes the use of traje by 1.85%