Three essays on transfers, trade policy and welfare

The objective of this dissertation is to incorporate foreign capital goods and underemployment in the welfare analysis of transfers and trade policies. We build a two-good, two-country general equilibrium model, which takes into account the use of foreign capital in the import competing sector of a developing country. The developing country receives transfers in the form of financial resources or capital goods from a developed country. Financial transfers induce changes in commodity terms of trade, which in turn affects capital inflows and the price of imported capital. The welfare effect of financial transfers is considered in the context of induced changes in these variables. In the context of an exogenous export tax, we find that endogenous capital flows aggravate the transfer problem that exists under trade taxation. When trade liberalization is tied to financial aid, we find that the tying of aid may worsen or alleviate the transfer problem, depending on how the existing export tax compares with the optimum. In the case of capital transfers, we find that such transfers can reduce welfare through an adverse price effect and a production distortion. The model is empirically analyzed by estimating a regression model with fixed effects for a panel of 14 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our empirical results substantiate the concerns raised by the theoretical analysis and are robust. We also analyze how trade liberalization affects underemployment and welfare in a small open economy model. Our model shows that liberalizing trade by reducing export taxes has an ambiguous effect on welfare due to the presence of endogenous underemployment. Free trade is not optimal, and a small export tax leads to a welfare improvement. Our results also show that the structure of employment in a typical small open economy causes trade liberalization to increase rather than decrease the level of underemployment. We check to see whether this latter result holds empirically by estimating a regression model with fixed effects for a panel of 19 developing economies. The empirical analysis shows that the result holds and is robust

Foreign aid and export performance: a panel data analysis of developing countries

The effect of foreign aid on economic activity of a country can be dampened due to potentially adverse effects on exports through a real exchange rate appreciation. In this study we examine the long-term relationship between export performance and foreign aid in developing countries while accounting for other factors. The estimates of direct effect of foreign aid on exports are imprecise. However, the effect of the quadratic term of foreign aid on exports is negative and precise. This implies large amount of foreign aid does adversely affect export performance. The results are robust to the use of two different export performance measures and different sub-samples.Developing countries - Economic conditions ; Exports

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron is an immune escape variant with an altered cell entry pathway

Vaccines based on the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 are a cornerstone of the public health response to COVID-19. The emergence of hypermutated, increasingly transmissible variants of concern (VOCs) threaten this strategy. Omicron (B.1.1.529), the fifth VOC to be described, harbours multiple amino acid mutations in spike, half of which lie within the receptor-binding domain. Here we demonstrate substantial evasion of neutralization by Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants in vitro using sera from individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273. These data were mirrored by a substantial reduction in real-world vaccine effectiveness that was partially restored by booster vaccination. The Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 did not induce cell syncytia in vitro and favoured a TMPRSS2-independent endosomal entry pathway, these phenotypes mapping to distinct regions of the spike protein. Impaired cell fusion was determined by the receptor-binding domain, while endosomal entry mapped to the S2 domain. Such marked changes in antigenicity and replicative biology may underlie the rapid global spread and altered pathogenicity of the Omicron variant

Independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, and improved complementary feeding, on child stunting and anaemia in rural Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting reduces survival and impairs neurodevelopment. We tested the independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) on stunting and anaemia in in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised, community-based, 2 × 2 factorial trial in two rural districts in Zimbabwe. Clusters were defined as the catchment area of between one and four village health workers employed by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care. Women were eligible for inclusion if they permanently lived in clusters and were confirmed pregnant. Clusters were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to standard of care (52 clusters), IYCF (20 g of a small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplement per day from age 6 to 18 months plus complementary feeding counselling; 53 clusters), WASH (construction of a ventilated improved pit latrine, provision of two handwashing stations, liquid soap, chlorine, and play space plus hygiene counselling; 53 clusters), or IYCF plus WASH (53 clusters). A constrained randomisation technique was used to achieve balance across the groups for 14 variables related to geography, demography, water access, and community-level sanitation coverage. Masking of participants and fieldworkers was not possible. The primary outcomes were infant length-for-age Z score and haemoglobin concentrations at 18 months of age among children born to mothers who were HIV negative during pregnancy. These outcomes were analysed in the intention-to-treat population. We estimated the effects of the interventions by comparing the two IYCF groups with the two non-IYCF groups and the two WASH groups with the two non-WASH groups, except for outcomes that had an important statistical interaction between the interventions. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01824940. FINDINGS: Between Nov 22, 2012, and March 27, 2015, 5280 pregnant women were enrolled from 211 clusters. 3686 children born to HIV-negative mothers were assessed at age 18 months (884 in the standard of care group from 52 clusters, 893 in the IYCF group from 53 clusters, 918 in the WASH group from 53 clusters, and 991 in the IYCF plus WASH group from 51 clusters). In the IYCF intervention groups, the mean length-for-age Z score was 0·16 (95% CI 0·08-0·23) higher and the mean haemoglobin concentration was 2·03 g/L (1·28-2·79) higher than those in the non-IYCF intervention groups. The IYCF intervention reduced the number of stunted children from 620 (35%) of 1792 to 514 (27%) of 1879, and the number of children with anaemia from 245 (13·9%) of 1759 to 193 (10·5%) of 1845. The WASH intervention had no effect on either primary outcome. Neither intervention reduced the prevalence of diarrhoea at 12 or 18 months. No trial-related serious adverse events, and only three trial-related adverse events, were reported. INTERPRETATION: Household-level elementary WASH interventions implemented in rural areas in low-income countries are unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia and might not reduce diarrhoea. Implementation of these WASH interventions in combination with IYCF interventions is unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia more than implementation of IYCF alone. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Swiss Development Cooperation, UNICEF, and US National Institutes of Health.The SHINE trial is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1021542 and OPP113707); UK Department for International Development; Wellcome Trust, UK (093768/Z/10/Z, 108065/Z/15/Z and 203905/Z/16/Z); Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; US National Institutes of Health (2R01HD060338-06); and UNICEF (PCA-2017-0002)

Foreign aid and export diversification in developing countries

This paper analyzes the effect of foreign aid on export diversification for a sample of developing countries while controlling for the effects of other factors that determine export diversification. We find that foreign aid not exceeding 20% of a country's GDP significantly promotes export diversification, while foreign aid in excess of 20% of GDP significantly impedes export diversification. The latter result corroborates evidence from related literature, which has shown that foreign aid can have an anti-export bias due to a Dutch disease effect. However, our results show that aid as a percent of GDP is below 20% in most low-income countries. This implies that in many low-income countries, varying amounts of additional aid can be used to enhance export diversification without causing a Dutch disease effect. As in the previous literature, we find that the level of development, infrastructure, transactions costs, and natural resources significantly affect export diversification. Our results are robust to the use of two different export diversification measures and different sub-samples.foreign aid, export diversification, developing countries,

Foreign Aid and Export Performance: A Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries

The effect of foreign aid on economic activity of a country can be dampened as it can potentially have adverse effects on exports through a real exchange rate appreciation. In this study we examine the long-term relationship between export performance and foreign aid in developing countries while accounting for other factors. The estimates do not show negative effect of foreign aid on exports. The estimated coefficients are mostly positive but insignificant. The result is robust to use of two different export performance measures and different sub-samples.Foreign aid, export performance, developing countries.