1,489 research outputs found

    Adapting to climate change--reply.

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    Dissecting Trait Heterogeneity: a Comparison of Three Clustering Methods Applied to Genotypic Data

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    Background: Trait heterogeneity, which exists when a trait has been defined with insufficient specificity such that it is actually two or more distinct traits, has been implicated as a confounding factor in traditional statistical genetics of complex hu man disease. In the absence of de tailed phenotypic data collected consistently in combination with genetic data, unsupervised computational methodologies offer the potential for discovering underlying trait heteroge neity. The performance of three such methods – Bayesian Classification, Hyperg raph-Based Clustering, and Fuzzy k -Modes Clustering – appropriate for categorical data were comp ared. Also tested was the ability of these methods to detect trait heterogeneity in the presence of locus heteroge neity and/or gene-gene interaction , which are two other complicating factors in discovering genetic models of complex human disease. To dete rmine the efficacy of applying the Bayesian Classification method to re al data, the reliability of its intern al clustering metr ics at finding good clusterings was evaluated using permutation testing. Results: Bayesian Classifica tion outperformed the other two method s, with the exception that the Fuzzy k -Modes Clustering performed best on the most comp lex genetic model. Bayesian Classificati on achieved excellent recovery for 75% of the da tasets simulated under the simplest genetic model, while it achieved moderate recovery for 56% of datase ts with a sample size of 500 or more (across all simulated models) and for 86% of datasets with 10 or fewer nonfuncti onal loci (across all si mulated models). Neither Hypergraph Clustering nor Fuzzy k -Modes Clustering achieved good or excellent cluster recovery for a majority of datasets even under a re stricted set of conditions. When usin g the average log of class strength as the internal clustering metric, th e false positive rate was controlled very well, at three percent or less for all three significance levels (0. 01, 0.05, 0.10), and the false negative rate was acceptably low (18 percent) for the least stringent sign ificance level of 0.10. Conclusion: Bayesian Classificati on shows promise as an unsuper vised computational method for dissecting trait hetero geneity in genotypic data. Its control of fa lse positive and false negative rates lends confidence to the validity of its results. Further investigation of how differ ent parameter settings may improve the performance of Bayesian Classification, especi ally under more comp lex genetic models, is ongoing

    Climate change: challenges and opportunities for global health.

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    IMPORTANCE: Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. OBJECTIVES: To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. DATA SOURCES, STUDY SELECTION, AND DATA SYNTHESIS: We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center. RESULTS: By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
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