A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System

Since 1990 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB leading indicator. Special attention is paid to the role and significance of IFO data. The structure of the CPB leading indicator is tailored to its use as a supplement to model-based projections, and thus has a unique character in several respects. The system of the CPB leading indicator is composed of ten separate composite indicators, seven for expenditure categories (‘demand’) and three for the main production sectors (‘supply’). This system approach has important advantages over the usual structure, in which the basis series are directly linked to a single reference series. The revised system, which uses 25 different basic series, performs quite well in describing the economic cycle of GDP, in indicating the upturns and downturns, and in telling the story behind the business cycle.leading indicator, short-term forecasts

The Effect of Credit Conditions on the Dutch Housing Market

It is widely perceived that the supply of mortgages, especially since the extensive liberalization of the mortgage market since the 1980s, has had implications for the Dutch housing market. In this paper we introduce a new method to estimate a credit condition index (CCI). The credit conditions index represents changes in the supply of credit over time, apart from changes in interest rates and income. Examples of these changes include (1) the development of markets for financial futures, options, swaps, securitized loans and synthetic securities which allowed for easy access to credit for financial intermediaries, (2) more sophisticated risk management, for example improved initial credit scoring, (3) changes in risk-perception by financial intermediaries due to changes in the macro-economic environment, like rate of unemployment, (4) introduction of new mortgage products, (5) reduced transaction costs and asymmetric information with innovations of IT, telephony and data management and (6) financial liberation. Financial liberation is the relaxation or tightening of credit controls like liquidity ratios on banks, down-payment requirements, maximum repayment periods, allowed types of mortgages, loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios, etc. The credit conditions index is estimated as an unobserved component in an error-correction model in which the average amount of mortgage is explained by the borrowing capacity and additional control variables. The model is estimated on data representing first time buyers. For first time buyers we can assume that the housing and non-housing wealth is essentially zero. The credit condition index is subsequently used in an error-correction model for house prices representing not only first time buyers, but all households. The models are estimated using quarterly data from 1995 to 2012. The estimated credit condition index has a high correlation with the Bank Lending Survey, a quarterly survey in which banks are asked whether there is a tightening or relaxation of (mortgage) lending standards compared to the preceding period. The credit condition index has explanatory power in the error-correction model for housing prices. In real terms house prices declined about 25% from 2009 to 2012. The estimation results show that 12% point of this decline can be attributed to a decline in the credit conditions index

Site-specific labeling of 'second generation' annexin V with Tc-99m(CO)(3) for improved imaging of apoptosis in vivo

In this study 'second generation' AnxV was specifically labeled with Tc-99m in three different ways outside the binding region of the protein to obtain an improved target-to-background activity ratio. The compounds were tested in vitro and in vivo in normal mice and in a model of hepatic apoptosis (anti-Fas mAb). The apoptosis binding was most prominent for the HIS-tagged 'second generation' AnxV labeled with Tc-99m(CO)(3) in comparison to Tc-99m-HYNIC-cys-AnxV and Tc-99m(CO)(3)-DTPA-cys-AnxV

Effectiveness of different combinations of DMARDs and glucocorticoid bridging in early rheumatoid arthritis: two-year results of CareRA

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether MTX should be combined with an additional DMARD and bridging glucocorticoids as initial treatment for patients with early RA to induce an effective long-term response. METHODS: The Care in early RA study is a two-year investigator-initiated pragmatic multicentre randomized trial. Early RA patients, naïve to DMARDs and glucocorticoids, were stratified based on prognostic factors. High-risk patients were randomized to COBRA-Classic (n = 98): MTX, sulfasalazine, prednisone step-down from 60 mg; COBRA-Slim (n = 98): MTX, prednisone step-down from 30 mg; or COBRA-Avant-Garde (n = 93): MTX, leflunomide, prednisone step-down from 30 mg. Low-risk patients were randomized to COBRA-Slim (n = 43); or Tight Step Up (TSU) (n = 47): MTX without prednisone. Clinical/radiological outcomes at year 2, sustainability of response, safety and treatment adaptations were assessed. RESULTS: In the high-risk group 71/98 (72%) patients achieved a DAS28-CRP < 2.6 with COBRA-Slim compared with 64/98 (65%) with COBRA-Classic and 69/93 (74%) with COBRA-Avant-Garde (P = 1.00). Other clinical/radiological outcomes and sustainability of response were similar. COBRA-Slim treatment resulted in less therapy-related adverse events compared with COBRA-Classic (P = 0.02) or COBRA-Avant-Garde (P = 0.005). In the low-risk group, 29/43 (67%) patients on COBRA-Slim and 34/47 (72%) on TSU achieved a DAS28-CRP < 2.6 (P = 1.00). On COBRA-Slim, low-risk patients had lower longitudinal DAS28-CRP scores over 2 years, a lower need for glucocorticoid injections and a comparable safety profile compared with TSU. CONCLUSION: All regimens combining DMARDs with glucocorticoids were effective for patients with early RA up to 2 years. The COBRA-Slim regimen, MTX monotherapy with glucocorticoid bridging, provided the best balance between efficacy and safety, irrespective of patients' prognosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, http://www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01172639.status: publishe