Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach

This paper proposes a “before-and-after” approach to empirical examination of the relationship between democracy and growth. Rather than the commonly used cross-country regression method, this paper compares the economic performances of forty countries before and after they became democracies or semi-democracies sometime within the last forty years. The empirical evidence indicates that an improvement in growth performance typically follows the transformation to democracy. Moreover, growth under democracy appears to be more stable than under authoritarian regimes. Interestingly, wealthy countries often experience declines in growth after a democratic transformation, while very poor nations typically experience accelerations in growth. Growth change appears to be negatively related to the initial savings ratio and positively related to the export ratio to GDP. Partial correlation between growth change and primary school or secondary school enrollments and the ratio of government expenditure to GDP is not identified.Democracy, economic growth

Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach

This paper proposes a “before-and-after” approach to empirical examination of the relationship between democracy and growth. Rather than the commonly used cross-country regression method, this paper compares the economic performances of forty countries before and after they became democracies or semi-democracies sometime within the last forty years. The empirical evidence indicates that an improvement in growth performance typically follows the transformation to democracy. Moreover, growth under democracy appears to be more stable than under authoritarian regimes. Interestingly, wealthy countries often experience declines in growth after a democratic transformation, while very poor nations typically experience accelerations in growth. Growth change appears to be negatively related to the initial savings ratio and positively related to the export ratio to GDP. Partial correlation between growth change and primary school or secondary school enrollments and the ratio of government expenditure to GDP is not identified.Democracy, economic growth, O40, O57

Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach

This paper proposes a “before-and-after” approach to empirical examination of the relationship between democracy and growth. Rather than the commonly used cross-country regression method, this paper compares the economic performances of forty countries before and after they became democracies or semi-democracies sometime within the last forty years. The empirical evidence indicates that an improvement in growth performance typically follows the transformation to democracy. Moreover, growth under democracy appears to be more stable than under authoritarian regimes. Interestingly, wealthy countries often experience declines in growth after a democratic transformation, while very poor nations typically experience accelerations in growth. Growth change appears to be negatively related to the initial savings ratio and positively related to the export ratio to GDP. Partial correlation between growth change and primary school or secondary school enrollments and the ratio of government expenditure to GDP is not identified.democracy; economic growth

Emerging Asia’s growth and integration: how autonomous are business cycles?

Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten countries over the period 1979Q1- 2003Q4, controlling for external factors, and use sign restrictions to identify structural domestic shocks. Variance decompositions indicate that Asian emerging economies are to a large part driven by external developments, and even more so employing a more recent sample. We analyse to what extent structural domestic shocks exhibit a regional dimension by comparing shocks across countries using correlation and principal component analysis. The extent of regional co-movement between structural shocks is relatively limited. While the principal components analysis indicates a moderate increase in co-movement over time, the correlation analysis finds a decline. This may reflect a broadening of regional integration at the expense of bilateral economic ties. JEL Classification: F15, F02, F41Economic integration, International Business Cycles, sign restrictions, structural shocks

Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and the Finnish Depression in the Beginning of the 1990s

Only abstract. Paper copies of master’s theses are listed in the Helka database (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Electronic copies of master’s theses are either available as open access or only on thesis terminals in the Helsinki University Library.Vain tiivistelmä. Sidottujen gradujen saatavuuden voit tarkistaa Helka-tietokannasta (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Digitaaliset gradut voivat olla luettavissa avoimesti verkossa tai rajoitetusti kirjaston opinnäytekioskeilla.Endast sammandrag. Inbundna avhandlingar kan sökas i Helka-databasen (http://www.helsinki.fi/helka). Elektroniska kopior av avhandlingar finns antingen öppet på nätet eller endast tillgängliga i bibliotekets avhandlingsterminaler.The world economy has witnessed increasingly frequent currency crises in recent years. The Finnish currency crisis and the resultant depression provide a very valuable case study for understanding the reasons for a currency crisis, the monetary policy options and agent behavior before and during the crisis. The central bank's monetary policy has an important role to play before and in the midst of a currency crisis. This paper develops a theoretical model to analyze monetary policy and currency crisis. The switch of an exchange rate regime is considered as the result of an optimizing decision by the policymaker. The emphasis is on the optimal decision-making of the central bank and its impact on economic activity. A banking sector is modeled so that interest rates can be determined endogenously. The optimal behavior of the consumer and firm are also taken account of. Here the interaction between the bank and the firm is set in a Stackelberg game framework. The bank is the Stackelberg leader, which sets a lending rate first. Then the firm reacts with a desirable level of bank loan. The central bank's optimal decision on the exchange rate is based on the interaction of all other agents. The central bank faces conflicting interests in deciding the exchange rate, which will have different impacts on the open and closed sectors of the economy. Under a fixed exchange rate system, the dynamic-inconsistency problems the central bank faces result in multiple solutions. The model shows that two equilibria could exist. The first one features no deviation of the private sector's expectations from the fixed exchange rate system. Then it is always in the central bank's interest to maintain the fixed exchange rate. There will be no speculative attack, and the fixed exchange rate system can be sustained. The second one features a currency crisis as the change in expectations validates a change in economic fundamentals, which makes the change in the exchange rate ideal given the central bank's policy preferences. Thus the currency crisis is really self-fulfilling

Delayed Ettringite Formation in Fly Ash Concrete under Moist Curing Conditions

During the hydration of cement, tricalcium aluminate (C3A) reacts with gypsum and forms ettringite (AFt). Once all gypsum is consumed, ettringite can further react with remaining C3A and form monosulfate (AFm) at 1–2 days. Normally, at early ages, ettringite all transfers to AFm phase. After several months or years, ettringite can form again if a new source of sulfate becomes available in the pore solution of the paste, viz. delayed ettringite formation. In previous study, it was found that delayed ettringite forms in Portland cement concrete when the concrete samples were cured under moist conditions, i.e., without external sulfate phase. This delayed ettringite formation may result in the decrease of resistance of Portland cement concrete to chloride penetration. After that, it was found that ettringite, viz. delayed ettringite formation, also generated in fly ash concrete. The formation of ettringite, however, has no obvious influence on the resistance of fly ash concrete to chloride penetration

Thread of Thought Unraveling Chaotic Contexts

Large Language Models (LLMs) have ushered in a transformative era in the field of natural language processing, excelling in tasks related to text comprehension and generation. Nevertheless, they encounter difficulties when confronted with chaotic contexts (e.g., distractors rather than long irrelevant context), leading to the inadvertent omission of certain details within the chaotic context. In response to these challenges, we introduce the "Thread of Thought" (ThoT) strategy, which draws inspiration from human cognitive processes. ThoT systematically segments and analyzes extended contexts while adeptly selecting pertinent information. This strategy serves as a versatile "plug-and-play" module, seamlessly integrating with various LLMs and prompting techniques. In the experiments, we utilize the PopQA and EntityQ datasets, as well as a Multi-Turn Conversation Response dataset (MTCR) we collected, to illustrate that ThoT significantly improves reasoning performance compared to other prompting techniques.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, 5 table

Randomized, Double-Blind, and Placebo-Controlled Trial of Clenbuterol in Denervated Muscle Atrophy

Objectives. β2-adrenergic agonists, such as clenbuterol, have been shown to promote the hypertrophy of healthy skeletal muscles and to ameliorate muscle wasting in a few pathological conditions in both animals and humans. We intended to investigate the clinical efficacy of clenbuterol on attenuating denervation-induced muscle atrophy. Methods. A double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel, and randomized trial was employed. 71 patients, suffering from brachial plexus injuries, were given either clenbuterol (60 μg, bid) or placebo for 3 months. Before and at the end of the study, patients were given physical examinations, biopsies of biceps brachii, electromyograms (EMGs), and other laboratory tests. Results. Compared with placebo treatment, clenbuterol significantly mitigated the decreases in cross-sectional areas of type I and II muscle fibers and alleviated the reduction in fibrillation potential amplitudes, without any adverse effects. Conclusions. Clenbuterol safely ameliorated denervated muscle atrophy in this cohort; thus larger clinical studies are encouraged for this or other β2 agonists on denervation-induced muscle atrophy