15,625 research outputs found
Demand Forecasting for New Local Rail Services: A Case Study of a New Service Between Leicester and Burton-On- Trent
Preston, J. and Wardman, M. (1988) "Demand Forecasting for New
Local Rail Services: A Case Study of a New Service between
Leicester and Burton-on-Trent". Workina Paver 260, Institute for
Transport Studies, University of Leeds.
This paper assesses the potential for a new rail service between
Leicester and Burton-on-rent. In order to do this, three sets of
demand forecasts were produced. These were based on Revealed
Preference (RP) models that had been developed in West Yorkshire,
a Stated Intentions (SI) survey of the Leicester-Burton corridor
and Stated Preference (SP) models developed for the Ashby/
Coalville -and Outer Leicester areas. It was found that these
three approaches gave a wide range of forecasts but it was felt
that the SI survey, adjusted for the findings from the SP models,
were likely to give the most reliable estimates of usage. As a
result, it was concluded that, given patronage growth over time,
total usage of the line would amount to between 3,000 and 4,000
trips on an average day.
The demand forecasts were then used as input to an evaluation
framework which took into account capital costs, operating costs,
revenue and time savings. Even if actual usage reached the upper
level of our forecasts it was shown that, although operating
costs would be covered, only some of the capital costs would be
paid back. Consideration of user time savings strengthens the
case for the scheme but even so a return on capital would still
not be achieved. Therefore, it was concluded that the case for a
rail service between Leicester and Burton is, at best, marginal,
although a number of ways to continue the feasibility study are
suggested
The jointly optimal inflation tax, income tax structure, and transfers
The welfare-maximizing income tax structure, rate of money creation, and amounts of intergenerational transfers are jointly determined for given rates of government consumption. When government consumption is zero, it is found for the parameter values examined that the income tax structure is progressive, the rate of money change is negative, and positive transfers are made to the old. As government consumption increases, the tax structure's progressivity declines and turns increasingly regressive, the rate of money change rises, and transfers decrease. It is found that the bulk of the increase in government consumption is optimally financed by a cut in transfers.Expenditures, Public ; Income tax
A simple way to estimate current-quarter GNP
This paper describes a method developed to predict the advance (first) estimate of inflation-adjusted gross national product (real GNP) using hours-worked data. Besides generating fairly accurate forecasts of advance GNP, the method has two implications. First, the Commerce Department seems to weigh the hours-worked data most heavily in its early estimates of real GNP but less and less so in its revised estimates. Second, analysts attempting to predict current-quarter outcomes in real time need to consider the availability and reliability of data at the time the forecasts are made.Gross national product ; Vector autoregression
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