Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Time-Dependent Factors

The purpose of this study was to build a prognostic model of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using time-dependent covariates to re-evaluate the prognosis at any stage of the disease. The subjects were consecutive HCC patients who were treated at our institute between 1995 and 2007. We constructed time-fixed and time-dependent prognostic models with a training group (n＝336) and compared the prognostic abilities between conventional Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) scores, Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) scores, an Okuda classification, and our prognostic models in the testing group (n＝227) with the c-index. The time-dependent prognostic model consisted of main tumor size, tumor number, portal vein invasion, distant metastasis, alpha-fetoprotein, des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP), bilirubin, and albumin and the weighted scores were set for each factor depending on the hazard ratio for the prognosis. The prognostic index was determined by summing the scores. The c-index values for the CLIP scores, JIS scores, Okuda classification, and our time-dependent model were 0.741, 0.727, 0.609, and 0.870, respectively. These results indicate that our time-dependent model can estimate the prognosis of HCC more precisely than traditional time-fixed models and can be used to re-predict the prognosis of HCC

Sorafenib plus low-dose cisplatin and fluorouracil hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy versus sorafenib alone in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (SILIUS): a randomised, open label, phase 3 trial

Background Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy plus sorafenib in phase 2 trials has shown favourable tumour control and a manageable safety profile in patients with advanced, unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. However, no randomised phase 3 trial has tested the combination of sorafenib with continuous arterial infusion chemotherapy. We aimed to compare continuous hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy plus sorafenib with sorafenib alone in patients with advanced, unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods We did an open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial (SILIUS) at 31 sites in Japan. Eligible patients were aged 20 years or older, with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma not suitable for resection, local ablation, or transarterial chemoembolisation; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 0–1; Child-Pugh score 7 or lower; and adequate bone marrow, liver, and renal function. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via an interactive web response system with a computer-generated sequence to receive 400 mg sorafenib orally twice daily or 400 mg sorafenib orally twice daily plus hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (cisplatin 20 mg/m 2 on days 1 and 8 and fluorouracil 330 mg/m 2 continuously on days 1–5 and 8–12 of every 28-day cycle via an implanted catheter system). The primary endpoint was overall survival. The primary efficacy analysis comprised all randomised patients (the intention-to-treat population), and the safety analysis comprised all randomised patients who received at least one dose of study treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01214343. Findings Between Nov 4, 2010, and June 10, 2014, 206 patients were randomly assigned (103 to the sorafenib group, 103 to the sorafenib plus hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy group). One patient in the sorafenib plus hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy group withdrew after randomisation. Median overall survival was similar in the sorafenib plus hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (n=102) and sorafenib monotherapy (n=103) groups (11·8 months [95% CI 9·1–14·5] vs 11·5 months [8·2–14·8]; hazard ratio 1·009 [95% CI 0·743–1·371]; p=0·955). Grade 3–4 adverse events that were more frequent in the sorafenib plus hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy group than in the sorafenib monotherapy group included anaemia (15 [17%] of 88 vs six [6%] of 102), neutropenia (15 [17%] vs one [1%]), thrombocytopenia (30 [34%] vs 12 [12%]), and anorexia (12 [14%] vs six [6%]). Interpretation Addition of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy to sorafenib did not significantly improve overall survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Funding Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in HCV patients treated with direct-acting antivirals after curative treatment

Aim: The increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) after curative treatment for HCC is controversial. The purpose of this study was to examine the risk of HCC recurrence after DAA therapy.Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 312 consecutive patients with HCV-related HCC who received DAA therapy in participating institutions between September 2014 and July 2016. All patients received curative hepatectomy or radio-frequency ablation. We calculated the annual incidence of HCC recurrence after DAA therapy and identified the risk factors for HCC recurrence using Cox regression models.Results: The median age was 74 years old, and a sustained virological response was achieved by 288 patients. The 3-year-overall survival rate was 95.4% in a median follow-up period of 855 days. HCC recurred in 135 patients. The 1-, 2- and 3-year recurrence rates were 18.3%, 38.8% and 55.4%, respectively. A multivariate analysis revealed that the following factors were associated with HCC recurrence: multiple tumors at the first HCC treatment [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.21; 95%CI: 1.41-3.49], a history of multiple treatments for HCC (HR = 1.97; 95%CI: 1.28-3.02), and α-fetoprotein (AFP-L3) ≥ 10% at the initiation of DAA therapy (HR = 4.74; 95%CI: 2.10-10.7).Conclusion: Among patients treated with DAAs after the curative treatment of HCC, multiple tumors at the first HCC treatment, multiple prior HCC treatments and a high AFP-L3 level before DAA therapy were associated with recurrence, and the rate of recurrence was comparable to that before the DAA era