Basic Demographic Processes in Croatia

U radu se razmatraju glavni demografski procesi u suvremenom razvoju hrvatskog stanovništva: ukupna, prirodna i emigracijska depopulacija i demografsko starenje. Objašnjava se međusobna kauzalnost procesa opće i parcijalne depopulacije. Rezultati upućuju na njihove dalekosežne negativne posljedice u budućem razvoju hrvatskog stanovništva.The paper describes the basic processes of contemporary development of the Croatian population: total, natural and emigrational depopulation and demographic ageing. The causal connection between the processes of general and partial depopulation is explained and the results indicate their far-reaching unfavourable effects to the future development of Croatian population

Prometna dostupnost kao čimbenik negativnih demografskih procesa: studija slučaja Podgorja (hrvatske jadranske regije)

Podgorje is in the zone of the overlapping nodal-functional regions of Rijeka and Zadar. Despite its central position in the geographical context of Adriatic Croatia, the Podgorje region is suffering very negative demographic processes and trends because it is an area of poor transportation accessibility. The aim of this research paper is to analyze the interdependency of transport accessibility of Podgorje and the neighboring leading regional centers, as well as the negative demographic processes and trends that have destabilized this region and converted it into a rural periphery of Adriatic Croatia. The processes of littoralization and industrialization of the coast of Podgorje failed, when they should have created the prerequisites for the development of a functional network of settlements, which would have in turn created and kept necessary functions and retained the population. The absence of these processes has led to the demographic decline of the area.Podgorje se nalazi u zoni preklapanja nodalno-funkcionalnih regija Rijeke i Zadra. Unatoč središnjem položaju u geografskom kontekstu Jadranske Hrvatske Podgorje trpi vrlo negativne demografske procese i trendove jer je to područje slabe prometne dostupnosti. Cilj je ovoga istraživačkog rada analizirati međuovisnost prometne dostupnosti Podgorja i susjednih glavnih regionalnih centara te negativne demografske procese i trendove koji su destabilizirali ovu regiju i pretvorili je u ruralnu periferiju Jadranske Hrvatske. Procesi litoralizacije i industrijalizacije obale Podgorja nisu uspjeli stvoriti preduvjete za razvoj funkcionalne mreže naselja, koja bi zauzvrat stvorila i zadržala potrebne funkcije te zadržala stanovništvo. Nepostojanje tih procesa dovelo je do demografskoga pada

PROCES TERCIJARIZACIJE U HRVATSKOJ – DUGOROČNE PROMJENE U STRUKTURI PRIVREDNIH DJELATNOSTI PREMA SEKTORIMA

This paper analyses a structural change by economic sectors in general and tertiarization process in particular, for the period 1971-2011 in Croatia. It started from the classical economic theory of service sector growth and demographic approach by using the data collected from the population censuses, to analyse long term changes and trends in the sector’s structure. The process of tertiarization is usually defined as an increase in the share of service sector employment in total employment and we assume as a continuous long term process, it is influenced by different factors in different periods, and mostly the ones that have accelerated the process of deindustrialization as well in the past. Our results confirm a structural change that favours service sector growth during the whole period, not only in last three transition decades, along with the simultaneous reduction in agricultural and industrial sector shares. The main limitation is fact that those results are just a fundamental but necessary first step based on demographic statistics which reveal some elementary insights useful for further analyses. Scientific assessment of this article is in interdisciplinary approach of explanation of different impacts and specific features of tertiarization process in Croatia since 1970s. Also, the contribution of this paper is at the same time the collection and presentation of a new set of data combined in one article from several sources, which can be the basis for some further research. The results also consider the question if this process was accompanied by the economic growth and development observed in the rich and more developed countries or this shift towards service society with postindustrial division of labour does not come along with expected modernisation and developmental effects.U ovom se radu analizira strukturna promjena gospodarskih sektora u cjelini a posebno proces tercijarizacije za razdoblje 1971–2011. u Hrvatskoj. Polazi se od klasične ekonomske teorije rasta uslužnog sektora uz demografski pristup, korištenjem podataka popisa stanovništva za analizu dugoročnih promjena i trendova u sektorskoj strukturi. Proces tercijarizacije je najčešće definiran kao povećanje udjela zaposlenog stanovništva u uslužnom sektoru, a glavna je teza u radu da je kao kontinuirani dugoročni proces bio pod utjecajem različitih čimbenika u različitim razdobljima, uglavnom onih koji su istovremeno ubrzali proces deindustrijalizacije. Rezultati analize potvrđuju strukturnu promjenu koja ukazuje na rast uslužnog sektora tijekom čitavog promatranog razdoblja, a ne samo u zadnja tri desetljeća tranzicijska razdoblja uz istodobno smanjenje udjela poljoprivrednog i industrijskog sektora. Glavno ograničenje jest činjenica da su ti rezultati tek osnovni ali nužni korak utemeljen na demografskoj statistici koja daje elementarne uvide korisne za daljnje analize. Znanstveni je doprinos ovog rada u interdisciplinarnom pristupu teorijskom konceptu te obrazloženju različitih čimbenika i obilježja procesa tercijarizacije u Hrvatskoj od 1970ih. Rezultati također nameću daljnje pitanje je li taj proces praćen ekonomskim rastom i razvojem kao u razvijenijim zemljama ili taj prijelaz prema društvu usluga sa postindustrijskom podjelom rada nije donio očekivane učinke modernizacije i razvoja

Die Bevölkerungszahlen der Gespanschaft Karlovac im Zeitraum von 1857 bis 2001

Karlova~ka `upanija ubraja se u negativan pol demografskog i ekonomskog razvoja Hrvatske. Negativni demografski procesi u promatranoj `upaniji prisutni su vrlo dugo. Spomenuti su se procesi postupno poja~avali od po~etka 1970-ih godina, a najnegativnija obilje`ja poprimili su nakon 1991. godine. Glavni demografski proces koji karakterizira promatrani prostor jest depopulacija. Stoga je u ovom radu istra`ena promjena broja stanovnika prema svim dosada{njim popisima, kako bi se utvrdio njezin intenzitet kroz pojedina razdoblja. Popisna promjena broja stanovnika najto~niji je pokazatelj demografske dinamike u nekom prostoru. Uzroci negativnoga demografskog stanja ponajprije se povezuju s lo{im ekonomskim prilikama, koje su rezultat dugogodi{njeg izostanka planiranih ulaganja u ovaj prostor. U najnovijem je razdoblju posebno nagla{en Domovinski rat, koji je dodatno pogor{ao ve} ionako lo{a demografska obilje`ja. Projekcija stanovni{tva do 2021. godine upu}uje na nastavak negativnih obilje`ja i procesa u demografskom razvoju `upanije. Za izlazak iz sada{nje situacije treba osmisliti sustavne poticajne mjere za demografski oporavak i ekonomski razvoj, koje moraju poticati sve razine vlasti. Takve mjere treba najprije po~eti provoditi u ruralnim prometno izoliranim dijelovima `upanije i na prostorima koji su u Domovinskom ratu bili izlo`eni izravnim ratnim razaranjima.The Karlovac County belongs within the negative pole of the demographic and economic development of Croatia. The negative demographic trends have been present in the Karlovac County for a long time. These trends have gradually worsened since the 1970s culminating in the period after 1991. The most significant demographic trend characteristic of the observed area is depopulation. Therefore, in this paper the author has researched the changing population numbers in all the past censuses in order to determine the intensity of these changes throughout specific periods. Census population change is the most accurate indicator of demographic dynamics in any area. The causes of the current negative demographic situation are mostly a result of poor economic circumstances, due to years of insufficient investment planning in the area. In recent years the most important factor has been the Croatian War of Independence, which has further deteriorated the already unsatisfactory demographic characteristics. Population projections until the year 2021 indicate continuing negative features and trends of the demographic development of the County. In order for a breakthrough to occur there should be systematic stimulative measures for demographic renewal and economic development, which should be encouraged by all levels of government. Such measures should first be taken in the transportationally isolated rural areas of the County, as well as in places which were directly exposed to destruction during the Croatian War of Independence.In der Gespanschaft Karlovac ist hinsichtlich der demografischen und wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Kroatiens ein negativer Ausschlag zu verzeichnen. Die negativen demografischen Prozesse sind in dieser Gespanschaft schon seit langem spürbar. Ab den 70er-Jahren des 20. Jahrhunderts war es allmählich zu einer Intensivierung der negativen Trends gekommen, die in der Zeit nach 1991 ihren Höhepunkt erreichten. Den relevantesten demografischen Vorgang stellt die Bevölkerungsabwanderung dar. Diese Arbeit untersucht daher die an den Ergebnissen bisheriger Volkszählungen abzulesenden Schwankungen der Bevölkerungszahlen, um die Intensität dieser Schwankungen während einzelner Zeitabschnitte feststellen. Volkszählungen sind die genauesten Indikatoren für die demografische Dynamik eines bestimmten geografischen Raums. Die Ursachen der gegenwärtigen negativen Trends sind zunächst in den schlechten Wirtschaftsbedingungen zu suchen, die wiederum auf den Umstand zurückgehen, dass planmäßige Investitionen in diesem Gebiet seit Jahren ausbleiben. In jüngerer Zeit wurde die ohnehin ungünstige Lage durch den Kroatischen Unabhängigkeitskrieg (1991–95) zusätzlich verschlechtert. Eine bis ins Jahr 2021 reichende demografische Projektion verweist auf einen zu erwartenden Fortbestand der negativen Merkmale und Prozesse. Um aus der bestehenden Situation wieder herauszufinden, sind auf allen politischen Ebenen systematische Unterstützungsmaßnahmen zur demografischen Erneuerung und wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung notwendig. Diese Maßnahmen müssen zuallererst in abgelegenen ländlichen Gebieten umgesetzt werden, des Weiteren in Gebieten, die vom Kriegsgeschehen in Kroatien direkt betroffen waren

Polarization between Urban and Non-urban Settlements in Karlovac County based on the Population Dynamics in Period (1971.—2001.)

U radu su prikazane i analizirane osnovne značajke ruralno-urbane polarizacije Karlovačke županije temeljene na dinamici stanovništva, u razdoblju od 1971. do 2001. godine. Prostorno-populacijska polarizacija između urbanih (gradskih) i urbaniziranih (prijelaznih) naselja s 1000 i više stanovnika s jedne strane i neurbanih (ruralnih ili seoskih) naselja s druge strane promatrana je sa stajališta demografske dinamike. Osnovna smjernica analize jest utvrđivanje stupnja polarizacije između urbanih (s uključenim urbaniziranim naseljima) i neurbanih naselja, ali i povezivanju dobivenih razlika s prostornom strukturom Karlovačke županije. Urbanizirana (prijelazna) naselja razmotrena su objedinjeno s urbanim naseljima. Promatrani prostor ima izrazito nepovoljna populacijsko-naseljska obilježja što se posebno očituje u negativnim i opadajućim značajkama dinamike stanovništva. U prevladavajućim, izrazito nepovoljnim, obilježjima populacijske dinamike nije moguće ostvariti ravnomjeran razvoj Županije. Uzimajući u obzir različite demografske razvojne tendencije urbanih i ruralnih naselja, ali i sve izrazitije prostorne razlike populacijski propulzivnijih i zaostalijih područja u Županiji, svrha analize jest utvrditi u kojoj su mjeri negativni populacijski procesi zahvatili određene skupine naselja s aspekta urbanizacije, ali i prostornog razmještaja.The article shows and analyses basic determinants of the polarization between urban and urbanized settlements (with population in the year 2001 of 1000 and more) at one side and non-urban settlements on the other side based on population dynamics in the period (1971-2001). Spatial and population polarization of urban (together with urbanized settlements) and nonurban settlements is investigated from the aspect of demographic dynamics. The basic aim of the research is to determine a degree of the polarization between the group of urban and urbanized settlements and the group of nonurban settlements in the mentioned county. It is also important to compare the results of the research with the spatial structure of Karlovac County. Urbanized settlements are shown within the group of urban settlements. Investigated area has a very negative determinants in the aspect of the population and settlements which are especially expressed in a negative and declining characteristics of the population dynamics. In a predominating and overcoming, expressively negative, features of the population dynamics it is almost impossible to achieve well-balanced development of Karlovac County. The article aims to determine to what degree have the negative demographic processes affected certain groups of settlements from the aspect of urbanization and spatial distribution. It is important that in the research various tendencies of population development for both urban (with included urbanized settlements) and non-urban settlements are considered

Dynamische demografische Determinanten der Stadt-Land- Polarisierung in der Gespanschaft Osijek-Baranja (1971–2001)

U ovome su radu prikazane i analizirane osnovne odrednice dinamike urbanoga i neurbanoga stanovništva Osječko-baranjske županije u međupopisnom razdoblju od 1971. do 2001. godine. Prostorno-populacijska polarizacija urbanih (gradskih) i neurbanih (ruralnih ili seoskih i urbaniziranih, odnosno prijelaznih ili mješovitih) naselja promatrana je sa stajališta demografskoga stanja i procesa. Osnovna smjernica istraživanja jest u utvrđivanju stupnja polarizacije između urbanih i neurbanih naselja, ali i u povezivanju dobivenih razlika s prostornom strukturom Osječko-baranjske županije. Demografska stvarnost Osječko- baranjske županije, ali i Hrvatske u cjelini, obilježena je sve izraženijim procesima ukupne i prirodne depopulacije, kao i emigracije. Negativnost navedenih procesa posebno se vidi u poremećaju dinamičkih značajki razvoja stanovništva. Proces demografskoga starenja zahvatio je gotovo sva ruralna naselja županije, a i u gradskim naseljima sve je izraženija degradacija bioreprodukcijskoga potencijala. Uzimajući u obzir različite demografske razvojne tendencije urbanih i ruralnih naselja, ali i sve izrazitije prostorne razlike populacijski propulzivnijih i zaostalijih područja u okviru županije, svrha istraživanja jest utvrditi u kojoj su mjeri negativni populacijski procesi zahvatili određene skupine naselja s aspekta urbanizacije, ali i prostornog razmještaja.The article shows and analyses basic determinants of the dynamics of the urban and non-urban (mainly rural) population of Osijek-Baranja County, Croatia, in the period from 1971 – 2001. The demographic situation and processes related with the spatial and population polarization of urban and non-urban settlements is investigated. The basic aim of the research is to determine the degree of polarization between urban and non-urban settlements in the mentioned county. It is also important to compare the results of the research with the spatial structure of Osijek-Baranja County. The demographic situation of the researched county, as well as of Croatia in general, is marked by increasing processes of depopulation and emigration. The negativity of the mentioned processes is particularly notable in the disorder of the population dynamics. The process of demographic ageing is present in almost all settlements and due to it, the bio-reproductive potential of the entire county is reduced. The article aims to determine to what extent the negative demographic processes have affected certain groups of settlements from the aspect of urbanization and spatial distribution. It is important that various tendencies of population development for both urban and non-urban settlements are considered in the research.In dieser Studie werden die Grundrichtungen in den Bewegungen der städtischen sowie nicht-städtischen Bevölkerung auf dem Raum der Gespanschaft Osijek- Baranja zwischen 1971 und 2001 (den Volkszählungsjahren) dargestellt und analysiert. Die räumliche Polarisierung zwischen urbanen (städtischen) und nicht-urbanen (dörflichen und gemischten, d.h. urbanisierten) Lebensräumen wurde unter dem Aspekt demografischer Zustände und Wandel untersucht. Das Hauptanliegen der Verfasser ist dabei, den Grad der Polarisierung zwischen urbanen und nicht-urbanen Lebensräumen zu ermitteln, ferner sollen die gewonnenen Daten in Bezug zur Raumstruktur der Gespanschaft Osijek- Baranja gesetzt werden. Die demografische Realität der genannten Gespanschaft, aber auch ganz Kroatiens, ist durch immer ausgeprägtere Prozesse einer umfassenden und natürlichen Entvölkerung sowie Abwanderung gekennzeichnet. Die negative Auswirkung dieser Prozesse ist besonders daran zu sehen, dass die dynamischen Merkmale in der Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Gespanschaft aus dem Gleichgewicht geraten sind. Der demografische Alterungsprozess hat nahezu alle ländlichen Wohngebiete der Gespanschaft erfasst, aber auch in den Städten ist die Schwächung des bioreproduktiven Potenzials immer stärker spürbar. Ausgehend von den genannten unterschiedlichen demografischen Entwicklungstendenzen, die in städtischen wie ländlichen Gegenden zu beobachten sind, aber auch von den immer krasseren Unterschieden zwischen populationspropulsiven Lebensräumen einerseits und rückständigen Gebieten innerhalb der genannten Gespanschaft andererseits, wollten die Verfasser ermitteln, in welchem Maße bestimmte Lebensräume hinsichtlich Urbanisierungsgrad und Bevölkerungsdichte von den angeführten negativen Populationsprozessen erfasst worden sind

La région de Plitvice-Slunj: la sélection des indicateurs dynamiques et structurels du développement démographique de l’espace rural

Slunjsko-plitvički kraj kontaktni je prostor dviju hrvatskih županija, Karlovačke i Ličko-senjske. U teritorijalno-administrativnom smislu definira se kao prostor grada Slunja te općina Cetingrad, Plitvička jezera, Rakovica i Saborsko. Promatrani prostor nalazi se na krškoj podlozi, koja je zbog svojih geološko-hidrološko-pedoloških specifičnosti, kao i geomorfoloških karakteristika, u prošlosti negativno determinirala kretanje stanovništva i razvoj naseljenosti. Cijeli taj prostor ima prevladavajuća ruralna obilježja i periferno je položen u odnosu na županijska središta (Karlovac i Gospić) te je kao takav dio negativnog pola populacijskoga, ekonomskog i regionalnog razvoja Hrvatske. Začeci duboke demografske krize u njemu datiraju iz prve polovine 20. stoljeća. Tijekom devedesetih godina već postojeće negativne demografske prilike dodatno su pogoršane srbijanskom oružanom agresijom. Cjelokupni tematizirani prostor pretrpio je znatne ljudske žrtve, migracijske gubitke i materijalna razaranja. Po oslobođenju počinje proces obnove, koji teče sporo i s brojnim poteškoćama. Zbog prisutnosti dugotrajnih, vrlo negativnih demografskih procesa, čija su glavna obilježja depopulacija (ukupna, prirodna i emigracijska) i starenje stanovništva, taj je prostor izgubio vlastiti demografsko-revitalizacijski potencijal. Populacijsko obnavljanje Slunjsko-plitvičkoga kraja nije provedivo bez primjene sustavnih poticajnih mjera demografske obnove i gospodarskog oporavka. Demografska obnova mora, uz pronatalitetne mjere, svakako obuhvatiti i poticanje naseljavanja mladoga, pretežno visokoobrazovanog stanovništva.The Slunj-Plitvice region is a contact area between two Croatian counties: Karlovac County and Lika-Senj County. It can be defined in territorial-administrative terms as the area of the administrative Town of Slunj and the following municipalities: Cetingrad, Plitvička Jezera (Plitvice Lakes), Rakovica and Saborsko. The investigated region is located in the karst zone, which exerted a negative influence on demographic development in the past because of its geological, hydrological, pedological and geomorphologic characteristics. The entire researched region is predominantly rural. It is peripheral compared with the county centres Karlovac (Karlovac County) and Gospić (Lika-Senj County). Therefore, the Slunj-Plitvice region can be described as an integral part of the negative population, economic and regional development pole of Croatia. The beginnings of the demographic crisis in the region date back from the first half of 20th century. During the 1990s, the already existing negative demographic circumstances were additionally worsened by Serbian armed aggression. The entire region suffered significant war casualties, migratory losses and material destruction. After liberation of the region, the process of reconstruction began. Its course has been very slow and marked by many obstacles. Because of the presence of the long-lasting, very negative demographic processes – total depopulation, natural depopulation, emigration depopulation and population ageing – the Slunj-Plitvice region has lost its ability to achieve demographic revitalisation. Population regeneration and renewal in the region will not be possible without the application of systematic stimulating measures for demographic and economic recovery. The demographic recovery plans must by all means include, besides pro birth-rate measures, stimulation for immigration of a young, predominately highly-educated population.La région de Plitvice-Slunj est l’espace de contact de deux comitats croates, celles de Karlovac et Lika-Senj. D’un point de vue territorial et administratif, elle définit l’espace comprenant la ville de Slunj et les communes de Cetingrad, des lacs de Plitvice, de Rakovica et de Saborsko. L’espace étudié se situe sur un terrain karstique, dont les particularités géologiques, hydrologiques et pédologiques ainsi que ses spécificités géomorphologiques ont exercé, dans le passé, une influence négative sur les mouvements de population de même que le développement des agglomérations. Dans son intégralité, cet espace présente des caractéristiques rurales dominantes et se situe en périphérie des chefs-lieux de comitats de Karlovac et de Gospić. Dans ces conditions, il s’inscrit dans le pôle négatif du développement démographique, économique et régional. Les prémices de la profonde crise démographique datent de la première moitié du 20e siècle. Au cours des années quatre-vingt-dix, la situation s’est vue aggravée par l’agression militaire serbe. L’ensemble de l’espace thématisé a été le théâtre de drames humanitaires, de migrations négatives et de dévastations matérielles. La libération du territoire s’est ensuivie du déclenchement du processus de reconstruction, lent et difficile. A cause de l’étendue de cette évolution démographique très négative, principalement caractérisée par le dépeuplement (total, naturel et migratoire) et par le vieillissement de la population, cet espace a perdu son potentiel de revitalisation démographique. Le renouveau démographique de la région de Plitvice-Slunj est en ce sens tributaire de la mise en œuvre de mesures de stimulation systématiques visant à relancer la démographie et à redresser l’activité économique. Le renouveau démographique implique obligatoirement, outre des mesures natalistes, des démarches destinées à encourager l’installation d’une population jeune et en grande partie hautement qualifiée

The Issues of Statistical Monitoring of Emigration

Za Hrvatsku se može reći da je „tradicionalno“ iseljenička zemlja. Emigracijski procesi u Hrvatskoj kontinuirano traju već više od 150 godina. Uz manje ili više intenzivnu emigraciju, u Hrvatskoj je od osamostaljenja svake godine prisutna i prirodna depopulacija. Takva je situacija rezultirala dubokom demografskom krizom u kojoj se Hrvatska nalazi. U najnovije vrijeme, od pristupanja Europskoj uniji, svjedoci smo najnovijeg emigracijskog vala iz Hrvatske jer se hrvatskim državljanima otvorilo tržište rada većine zemalja Europske unije. Opće je poznato da postoji problem vezan za točnost broja iseljenih osoba koje prikazuje hrvatska službena statistika. U radu se uspoređuju podatci hrvatske službene statistike i statistika odabranih zemalja u koje su se hrvatski državljani najviše iseljavali. Cilj rada je utvrditi i analizirati nerazmjer između hrvatskih službenih podataka o iseljenim osobama i službenih podataka o useljenim osobama država u koje su se hrvatski državljani najviše iseljavali.It could be said that Croatia is “traditionally” an emigration country. Emigration processes in Croatia have been going on continually for over 150 years. With a more or less intensive emigration, since its independence, Croatia has also been experiencing a natural depopulation. Such a situation has resulted in the deep demographic crisis that the country is currently in. In recent times, since joining the European Union, we’ve been witnesses to the newest emigration wave from Croatia, as Croatian citizens have gained access to the job market of almost all EU countries. It is known that there are issues related to how correct the number of emigrated persons is, as shown by the official Croatian statistics. In this paper, we compare the official Croatian statistics data to the statistics of selected countries that Croatian citizens have most emigrated to. The goal of this paper is to find and analyze the discrepancy between the official Croatian statistics about the number of emigrated persons and the official data about immigrated persons in the countries where Croatian citizens emigrated to the most