Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of$500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs$150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82$144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87$114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health

Clinical impact of pretreatment human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance in people initiating nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-containing antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Increased access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has resulted in rising levels of pretreatment human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (PDR). This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of PDR on treatment outcomes among people initiating nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART, including the combination of efavirenz (EFV), tenofovir (TDF), and lamivudine or emtricitabine (XTC). Methods: We systematically reviewed studies and conference proceedings comparing treatment outcomes in populations initiating NNRTI-based ART with and without PDR. We conducted subgroup analyses by regimen: (1) NNRTIs + 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), (2) EFV + 2 NRTIs, or (3) EFV/TDF/XTC; by population (children vs adults); and by definition of resistance (PDR vs NNRTI PDR). Results: Among 6197 studies screened, 32 were analyzed (31 441 patients). We found that individuals with PDR initiating NNRTIs across all the subgroups had increased risk of virological failure compared to those without PDR. Risk of acquisition of new resistance mutations and ART switch was also higher in people with PDR. Conclusions: This review shows poorer treatment outcomes in the presence of PDR, supporting the World Health Organization's recommendation to avoid using NNRTIs in countries where levels of PDR are high

Population-Based Biochemistry, Immunologic and Hematological Reference Values for Adolescents and Young Adults in a Rural Population in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: There is need for locally-derived age-specific clinical laboratory reference ranges of healthy Africans in sub-Saharan Africa. Reference values from North American and European populations are being used for African subjects despite previous studies showing significant differences. Our aim was to establish clinical laboratory reference values for African adolescents and young adults that can be used in clinical trials and for patient management. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A panel of 298, HIV-seronegative individuals aged 13-34 years was randomly selected from participants in two population-based cross-sectional surveys assessing HIV prevalence and other sexually transmitted infections in western Kenya. The adolescent (/=18 years) ratio and the male-to-female ratio was 1ratio1. Median and 95% reference ranges were calculated for immunohematological and biochemistry values. Compared with U.S-derived reference ranges, we detected lower hemoglobin (HB), hematocrit (HCT), red blood cells (RBC), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), neutrophil, glucose, and blood urea nitrogen values but elevated eosinophil and total bilirubin values. Significant gender variation was observed in hematological parameters in addition to T-bilirubin and creatinine indices in all age groups, AST in the younger and neutrophil, platelet and CD4 indices among the older age group. Age variation was also observed, mainly in hematological parameters among males. Applying U.S. NIH Division of AIDS (DAIDS) toxicity grading to our results, 40% of otherwise healthy study participants were classified as having an abnormal laboratory parameter (grade 1-4) which would exclude them from participating in clinical trials. CONCLUSION: Hematological and biochemistry reference values from African population differ from those derived from a North American population, showing the need to develop region-specific reference values. Our data also show variations in hematological indices between adolescent and adult males which should be considered when developing reference ranges. This study provides the first locally-derived clinical laboratory reference ranges for adolescents and young adults in western Kenya

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance in low-and middle-income countries

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance (PDR) has been increasing with scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. Delay in responding to rising levels of PDR is projected to fuel a worldwide increase in mortality, HIV incidence and ART costs. Strategies to curb the rise in PDR include using antiretrovirals (ARVs) with high-genetic barrier to resistance in first-line therapy and for prophylaxis in HIV exposed infants, enhancing HIV drug resistance surveillance in populations initiating, receiving ART, and in those on pre-exposure prophylaxis, universal access and effective use of viral-load tests, improving adherence and retention and minimizing ART programmatic quality gaps. In this review, we assess the drivers of PDR, and potential strategies to mitigate its rise in prevalence and impact in low- and middle-income countries.</jats:p

The evolving landscape of HIV drug resistance diagnostics for expanding testing in resource-limited settings

Global scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) has dramatically changed the prospects of HIV/AIDS disease rendering life-long chronic care and treatment a reality for millions of HIV-infected patients. Affordable technologies to monitor ART are needed to ensure long-term durability of limited available drug regimens. HIV drug resistance tests can complement existing strategies in optimizing clinical decision-making for patients with treatment failure, in addition to facilitating population-based surveillance of HIV drug resistance. This review assesses the current landscape of HIV drug resistance technologies and discuss the strengths and limitations of existing assays available for expanding testing in resource limited settings (RLS). These include sequencing-based assays (Sanger sequencing assays and next-generation sequencing), point mutation assays and genotype-free data-based prediction systems. The Sanger assays are currently considered gold standard genotyping technology, though available at a limited number of RLS reference and regional laboratories, but high capital and test cost have limited their wide expansion. The point mutation assays present opportunities for simplified laboratory assays, but HIV genetic variability, extensive codon redundancy at or near the mutation target sites with limited multiplexing capability have restricted their utility. Next-generation sequencing (despite high cost) may have potential to reduce the testing cost significantly through multiplexing in high-throughput facilities, although the level of bioinformatics expertise required for data analysis is currently still complex and expensive and lacks standardization. Web-based genotype-free prediction systems may provide enhanced ART decision-making without the need for laboratory testing, but require further clinical field evaluation and implementation science research in resource-limited settings

Curbing the rise of HIV drug resistance in low-income and middle-income countries: the role of dolutegravir-containing regimens

To improve virological suppression and address the emerging threat of HIV drug resistance, many low-income and middle-income countries are moving away from non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) and transitioning to dolutegravir as part of a more affordable and standardised antiretroviral therapy (ART). Although this transition could decrease the effect of rising NNRTI resistance and yield improved ART outcomes, it also presents new challenges. First, current safety concerns for dolutegravir use in women of childbearing potential require alternative solutions. Second, pre-existing resistance to the co-administered nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors might reduce effectiveness and durability of dolutegravir, particularly if there is scarce access to viral load tests to monitor treatment outcomes. Third, there is inadequate information on the genetic correlates of resistance to dolutegravir, particularly in patients infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes. Finally, clinical management of patients with confirmed virological failure on a dolutegravir-based regimen can pose challenges because of uncertainty around whether dolutegravir resistance has actually developed and switching is needed, or whether only interventions to improve adherence without switching are sufficient. These considerations should be addressed to consolidate expected gains from widespread introduction of dolutegravir in low-income and middle-income countries

Alarming increase in pretreatment HIV drug resistance in children living in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Children have an augmented risk of pretreatment HIV drug resistance (PDR) due to exposure to antiretroviral drugs for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Paediatric data are essential to evaluate the effectiveness of the restricted number of paediatric regimens currently available, but these data are scarce. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on PDR in children (median age ≤12 years) in sub-Saharan Africa. We separately extracted the proportion of children with PDR for children with and without prior PMTCT exposure, used random-effects meta-analysis to pool proportions and used meta-regression to assess subgroup differences. We included 19 studies representing 2617 children from 13 countries. The pooled PDR prevalence was 42.7% (95% CI 26.2%-59.1%) among PMTCT-exposed children and 12.7% (95% CI 6.7%-18.7%) among PMTCT-unexposed children (P = 0.004). The PDR prevalence in PMTCT-unexposed children increased from 0% in 2004 to 26.8% in 2013 (P = 0.009). NNRTI mutations were detected in 32.4% (95% CI 18.7%-46.1%) of PMTCT-exposed children and in 9.7% (95% CI 4.6%-14.8%) of PMTCT-unexposed children; PI mutations were uncommon ( <2.5%). PDR was more common in children aged  <3 years compared with children aged ≥3 years [40.9% (95% CI 27.6%-54.3%) versus 17.6% (95% CI 8.9%-26.3%), respectively (P = 0.025)]. The PDR prevalence in African children is high and rapidly increasing. Even in PMTCT-unexposed children, the most recent reports indicate that PDR is present in up to a third of children starting first-line therapy. Our data underscore the importance of initiating PI-based first-line ART in young children ( <3 years of age) and suggest that older children may also benefit from this approac