Econometric analysis of the bilateral trade flows in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

This study analyzes the trade flows of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) both among its member countries and with the rest of the world for the 1997-2002 and 2003-2007 periods. In this paper, the research question is whether the trade flows of the GCC countries with their partners have sustained and/or they have developed new relations over time, mainly after the 2003 Customs Union agreement of the GCC. For this purpose, fixed effects models have been estimated in order to obtain individual country effects variable. Then, trade model as a function of distance and income variables and the country effects model as a function of the time invariant control variables have been estimated simultaneously within the panel analysis using the Least Squares and Generalised Method of Moments under the assumption of the presence of cross section heteroskedasticity and the robust standard errors. It has been found that: (1) The order of top fifteen trade partners has changed significantly from the EU countries and the US to the Asian countries after 2003. (2) Exports and imports of the GCC countries are related to the wealth of the partner countries, but not to their distance, mainly due to the nature of their exported and imported goods, the characteristic of the region and developments in transportation facilities.Gulf Cooperation Council Countries; Trade Flows; Gravity model; Panel Analysis; System Estimation

Econometric Analysis of the Bilateral Trade Flows in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

This study analyzes the trade flows of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) both among its member countries and with the rest of the world for the 1997-2002 and 2003-2007 periods. In this paper, the research question is whether the trade flows of the GCC countries with their partners have sustained and/or they have developed new relations over time, mainly after the 2003 Customs Union agreement of the GCC. For this purpose, fixed effects models have been estimated in order to obtain individual country effects variable. Then, trade model as a function of distance and income variables and the country effects model as a function of the time invariant control variables have been estimated simultaneously within the panel analysis using the Least Squares and Generalised Method of Moments under the assumption of the presence of cross section heteroskedasticity and the robust standard errors. It has been found that: (1) The order of top fifteen trade partners has changed significantly from the EU countries and the US to the Asian countries after 2003. (2) Exports and imports of the GCC countries are related to the wealth of the partner countries, but not to their distance, mainly due to the nature of their exported and imported goods, the characteristic of the region and developments in transportation facilities.Gulf Cooperation Council Countries; Trade Flows; Gravity model; Panel Analysis; System Estimation

The contagion effect: evidences from former Soviet Economies in Eastern Europe

This paper analyzes whether or not the contagion effect exists among the seven former-Soviet economies in Eastern Europe: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine throughout the period from November 1996 to December 2009. The evolution of the EU memberships of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania has been assessed over the membership period (2004:05-2009:12) in comparison to the non-membership period (1995:11-2004:04). Additionally, the economies and the sample period employed in this research give an opportunity to test for two hypotheses on the contagion effect: First, the “flight to quality” hypothesis suggested by Favero and Giavazzi (2002) and second, the “political contagion” hypothesis offered by Drazen (1999). The contagion effect hypotheses for each economy have been tested using the “Threshold Test” proposed by Pesaran and Pick (2007). The econometric method employed in this paper examines only the contagion effect, not the interdependence although the seven economies or groups in the analysis can have interdependence relations. Empirical analysis has highlighted that: (i) the contagion effect exists in the region; (ii) the structure of the contagion mechanism in the region is not stable during the estimation period; (iii) there is an evidence for the validity of “flight to quality” hypothesis; (iv) there is no evidence for the validity of the “political contagion” hypothesis. These results are consistent with the different regional patterns of the former Soviet countries.contagion; threshold test; Eastern Europe; political contagion; flight to quality

Is It a Puzzle to Estimate Econometric Models for The Turkish Economy?

This paper examines the roles and interrelationships among the main macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and real GDP in Turkey. It provides a descriptive data analysis in order to understand the behaviour of each variable and to explain the relationship between them. The data analysis has been performed considering the original and the decomposed variables over the five periods: 1987:01-2007:12; 1987:01-1994:03; 1994:04-2001:01; 2001:02-2007:12; and 2002:10-2007:12. Different lengths of the sample periods are selected for each variable covering the economic crises and different policy applications in order to compare the reasons and the consequences of different economic policy applications on these variables. It is concluded that the distribution of economic series is changing from one period to another. The contribution of this paper is to develop a base for econometric model construction for the Turkish economy all the way through their contemporaneous and causal relationship for different sub-sample periods.Inflation rate, Exchange rate, Interest rate, Real GDP, Descriptive data analysis, Turkey

The Impacts of the Turkish Emigrants on Turkish Exports and Imports in Europe

This paper examines the link between migration and trade, focusing on Turkey as a “sending” country and the selected trading partners, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK, as the “receiving” countries in Europe. The research question is: “Do Turkish emigrants have positive impacts on the exports and imports of Turkey through preference and/or network channels.” The investigation methodology involves the fixed effect panel data analysis, and the estimation technique is the Least Squares under the assumption of the presence of cross section heteroskedasticity and the robust standard errors. This paper includes the 1980-2007 period, as well as two sub-periods, 1980-1995 and 1996-2007, in order to test the impact of the 1995 December Customs Union agreement between Turkey and EU countries. The trade function has been determined by the stock of Turkish population, per capita real income, real exchange rate, and the lagged dependent variable. It has been found that Turkish emigrants have significantly positive effect on trade mainly after the Custom Union Agreement, through the preference and network channels.Migration; Trade; Panel data; Dynamic models; Turkey

Is It a Puzzle to Estimate Econometric Models for The Turkish Economy?

This paper examines the roles and interrelationships among the main macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate and real GDP in Turkey. It provides a descriptive data analysis in order to understand the behaviour of each variable and to explain the relationship between them. The data analysis has been performed considering the original and the decomposed variables over the five periods: 1987:01-2007:12; 1987:01-1994:03; 1994:04-2001:01; 2001:02-2007:12; and 2002:10-2007:12. Different lengths of the sample periods are selected for each variable covering the economic crises and different policy applications in order to compare the reasons and the consequences of different economic policy applications on these variables. It is concluded that the distribution of economic series is changing from one period to another. The contribution of this paper is to develop a base for econometric model construction for the Turkish economy all the way through their contemporaneous and causal relationship for different sub-sample periods

Sermaye Akýmlarýnýn Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneði-1989:III-1999:IV

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of foreign capital flows on the selected macroeconomic indicators in Turkey, for the period 1989-1999. This paper investigates empirically the relationships between the foreign capital flows and the selected macroeconomic indicators. It is concluded that the capital flows in Turkey increase the volatility of the real and financial indicators and thus play an important role to contribute the economic instability.

Modelling The Trade Flows of The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A New Approach to Gravity Model

This study analyzes the trade flows of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) both among its member countries and with the rest of the world by employing a panel data gravity model in the context of the single country approach in order to capture the impacts of observable and unobservable variables on the bilateral trade flows for the 1997-2002 and 2003-2007 periods. In this paper, the research question is whether the trade flows of each GCC countries with its partners have sustained and/or they have developed new relations over time, mainly after 2003 custom union agreement of the GCC. For this purpose, fixed effects models have been estimated in order to obtain individual country effects variable. Then, trade model- as a function of distance and income variables- with the country effects model- as a function of the time invariant control variables- have been estimated simultaneously within the panel data analysis using the Least Squares and Generalised Method of Moments under the assumption of the presence of cross section heteroskedasticity and the robust standard errors. There are three contributions of this paper: (1) Examination of bilateral trade flows for each GCC country over the two different sample periods. (2) Country ranking for each GCC country over the two different sample periods. (3) Simultaneous gravity model specification for each GCC country over the two different sample periods

The Direction, Timing and Causality Relationships Between The Cyclical Components of Real and Financial Variables During The Financial Liberalization Period in Turkey

The purpose of this paper is the determination of sources and pattern of business cycle in Turkey throughout the period 1988-2002 using quarterly data. The question of the paper is Has financial liberalization increased the fragility of the financial and real sides of the Turkish economy? The quantitative analysis of the paper includes the cross correlation and causality analysis. Financial development indicators are the bank credits and capital flows, efficiency indicators are the domestic and foreign interest rate spreads. It has been found that the pattern of real GDP is determined by demand side variables, whereas the source of fluctuations in the real GDP is the financial variables in Turkey. External spread, capital flows, and domestic spread are the transmission channels of a shock to the real economy