An exact solution method for binary equilibrium problems with compensation and the power market uplift problem

We propose a novel method to find Nash equilibria in games with binary decision variables by including compensation payments and incentive-compatibility constraints from non-cooperative game theory directly into an optimization framework in lieu of using first order conditions of a linearization, or relaxation of integrality conditions. The reformulation offers a new approach to obtain and interpret dual variables to binary constraints using the benefit or loss from deviation rather than marginal relaxations. The method endogenizes the trade-off between overall (societal) efficiency and compensation payments necessary to align incentives of individual players. We provide existence results and conditions under which this problem can be solved as a mixed-binary linear program. We apply the solution approach to a stylized nodal power-market equilibrium problem with binary on-off decisions. This illustrative example shows that our approach yields an exact solution to the binary Nash game with compensation. We compare different implementations of actual market rules within our model, in particular constraints ensuring non-negative profits (no-loss rule) and restrictions on the compensation payments to non-dispatched generators. We discuss the resulting equilibria in terms of overall welfare, efficiency, and allocational equity

A Model for the Global Crude Oil Market Using a Multi-Pool MCP Approach

This paper proposes a partial equilibrium model to describe the global crude oil market. Pricing on the global crude oil market is strongly influenced by price indices such as WTI (USA) and Brent (Northwest Europe). Adapting an approach for pool-based electricity markets, the model captures the particularities of these benchmark price indices and their influence on the market of physical oil. This approach is compared to a model with bilateral trade relations as is traditionally used in models of energy markets. With these two model approaches, we compute the equilibrium solutions for several market power scenarios to investigate whether the multi-pool approach may be better suited than the bilateral trade model to describe the crude oil market. The pool-based approach yields, in general, results closer to observed quantities and prices, with the best fit obtained by the scenario of an OPEC oligopoly. We conclude that the price indices indeed are important on the global crude market in determining the prices and flows, and that OPEC effectively exerts market power, but in a non-cooperative way.crude oil, market structure, cartel, pool market, simulation model

A model for the global crude oil market using a multi-pool MCP approach

This paper proposes a partial equilibrium model to describe the global crude oil market. Pricing on the global crude oil market is strongly influenced by price indices such as WTI (USA) and Brent (Northwest Europe). Adapting an approach for pool-based electricity markets, the model captures the particularities of these benchmark price indices and their influence on the market of physical oil. This approach is compared to a model with bilateral trade relations as is traditionally used in models of energy markets. With these two model approaches, we compute the equilibrium solutions for several market power scenarios to investigate whether the multi-pool approach may be better suited than the bilateral trade model to describe the crude oil market. The pool-based approach yields, in general, results closer to observed quantities and prices, with the best fit obtained by the scenario of an OPEC oligopoly. We conclude that the price indices indeed are important on the global crude market in determining the prices and flows, and that OPEC effectively exerts market power, but in a non-cooperative way

Modelling the Impact of Energy and Climate Policies

Climate change mitigation and the transformation to a global low-carbon economy is a pressing issue in policy discussions and international negotiations. The political debate is supported by the scientific community with a large number of projections, pathway simulations and scenario analyses of the global energy system and its development over the next decades. These studies are often based on numerical economy-energy-environment-climate models. This DIW Roundup provides an overview of the model types used in the academic arena to evaluate and quantify the potential impacts of energy and climate policy measures. Their aim is to translate specific mitigation pathways into an economic and socio-political assessment, in order to identify trade-offs between different mitigation options. Since no single modelling framework can adequately capture all relevant aspects, a comprehensive assessment requires a mix of models and approaches

Ist die OPEC ein effektives Kartell?

Die Entscheidung der Organisation erdölexportierender Länder (OPEC) im Herbst 2014, ihre Förderquote trotz des dramatischen Falls der Rohölpreise nicht zu senken, hat diese Gruppe wieder einmal ins Rampenlicht der öffentlichen Diskussion gerückt. Obwohl einige der wichtigsten Ölproduzenten in der OPEC versammelt sind, gibt es allerdings nur eingeschränkt empirische Evidenz, dass die OPEC tatsächlich als ein Kartell wie im Lehrbuch agiert. Dieser Roundup fasst einige Erklärungsansätze der letzten Jahrzehnte in Bezug auf die Struktur des Rohölmarktes und der Rolle der OPEC zusammen. Der Konsens in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft deutet auf die Einordnung der Gruppe als ein nichtkooperatives Oligopol hin. Wir setzen diese Theorien in den Kontext des jüngsten Preissturzes.The recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to decrease their output quota in spite of a drastic decline of crude oil prices has brought renewed attention to this supplier group dominating the crude oil market. However, the empirical evidence that OPEC truly acts as a textbook cartel is rather limited. This Roundup summarizes the theories proposed over the past decades to explain the fundamental structure of the crude oil market and the role of OPEC and Saudi Arabia, the pivotal supplier. The consensus in the academic literature points towards the interpretation that the group is acting as a non-cooperative oligopoly. We relate the theories to alternative interpretations of the price drop over the autumn of 2014

Global Oil Markets Revisited - Cartel or Stackelberg Market?

This paper investigates the existence of market power and the sequentiality of games in the crude oil market. In particular, we examine whether Saudi Arabia acts as a Stackelberg leader or in a simultaneous-move framework, in a number of market power scenarios ranging from perfect competition to cartel. We develop a numerical simulation model that is formulated as a complementarity problem, allowing for the possibility of strategic interaction between the players. In contrast to other partial equilibrium models of natural resource markets, the model proposed in this paper explicitly takes into account the influence of price pools such as Brent and WTI where arbitrageurs exploit price differentials that are not justified by transport costs. Our results indicate that all suppliers exert market power while Saudi Arabia acts as Stackelberg leader. More specifically, we find that OPEC members do not act cooperatively, i.e. they do not maximise joint profits. Rather, they exhibit strategic non-cooperative behaviour, rejecting the notion that OPEC is a cartel

Network Expansion to Mitigate Market Power: How Increased Integration Fosters Welfare

Lack of transmission capacity hampers the efficient integration of the European electricity market, and thereby precludes reaping the full benefits of competition. We investigate to what extent the expansion of the transmission grid promotes competition, efficiency, and welfare. This work proposes a three-stage model for grid investment: a benevolent planner decides on network upgrades; she considers the welfare benefits of investment through a reduction of market power exertion by strategic generators. These firms anticipate their impact on the Independent System Operator and are able to exert market power, in particular when lines are congested. We illustrate the model on a simple three-node network. Results indicate that network expansion indeed provides a suitable way of enhancing welfare due to a reduction of market power potential

What about the OPEC Cartel?

The recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to decrease their output quota in spite of a drastic decline of crude oil prices has brought renewed attention to this supplier group dominating the crude oil market. However, the empirical evidence that OPEC truly acts as a textbook cartel is rather limited. This Roundup summarizes the theories proposed over the past decades to explain the fundamental structure of the crude oil market and the role of OPEC and Saudi Arabia, the pivotal supplier. The consensus in the academic literature points towards the interpretation that the group is acting as a non-cooperative oligopoly. We relate the theories to alternative interpretations of the price drop over the autumn of 2014.Die Entscheidung der Organisation erdölexportierender Länder (OPEC) im Herbst 2014, ihre Förderquote trotz des dramatischen Falls der Rohölpreise nicht zu senken, hat diese Gruppe wieder einmal ins Rampenlicht der öffentlichen Diskussion gerückt. Obwohl einige der wichtigsten Ölproduzenten in der OPEC versammelt sind, gibt es allerdings nur eingeschränkt empirische Evidenz, dass die OPEC tatsächlich als ein Kartell wie im Lehrbuch agiert. Dieser Roundup fasst einige Erklärungsansätze der letzten Jahrzehnte in Bezug auf die Struktur des Rohölmarktes und der Rolle der OPEC zusammen. Der Konsens in der Wirtschaftswissenschaft deutet auf die Einordnung der Gruppe als ein nichtkooperatives Oligopol hin. Wir setzen diese Theorien in den Kontext des jüngsten Preissturzes

World Crude Oil Markets: OPEC's Supplier Power Remains Unchallenged

In spite of the sharp decline of crude oil prices since the fall of 2008, the current price level of approximately $65 per barrel is significantly higher than the long-term average. The market power of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is partially responsible for this price level, remains strong. While market prices for commodities such as coal are typically reflecting production costs, in the case of oil, market power combined with significant variations in demand leads to erratic price fluctuations. DIW Berlin's model calculations show that although OPEC cannot operate as a standard cartel, its individual members can significantly influence prices by acting as powerful oligopolists. Furthermore, over the mid-term the OPEC countries will attain even greater significance because of the size of their oil reserves

The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model

In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas reserves, such as shale gas; ii) on the contrary, tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas reserves in the world; and iii) the impact of CO2-constraints and the emergence of a competing environmental friendly "backstop technology". Regional scenarios that have a global impact are: iv) the full halt of Russian and Caspian natural gas exports to Western Europe; v) sharply constrained production and export activities in the Arab Gulf; vi) heavily increasing demand for natural gas in China and India; and finally vii) constraints on liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development on the US Pacific Coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, and prices between the scenarios. Investments in pipelines, LNG terminals and storage are also affected. However, overall the world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions with natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.Natural gas, investments, reserves, climate policy