Healthcare Sector Stock Returns and the Election of Donald J. Trump

The 2016 US Presidential Election was hallmarked by significant policy differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. Healthcare reform was one of the most significant and highly debated issues between the candidates; Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) and Donald J. Trump (R-NY). The Republican platform of repeal and replace was in direct opposition to the expansionary viewpoints of the Democratic Party which was to promote increased regulations on the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. The media narrative in the months preceding the election assumed a Democratic victory as a sure thing. The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a 98.5% chance of victory at the beginning of election night, making the landslide victory of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton one of the greatest political upsets of the modern political era. In order to determine if market indicators were predicting a Republican victory in the election; we analyze financial performance of securities in the healthcare sector through standard event study techniques. In particular I use multivariate regression to calculate cumulative abnormal returns centered around varying time windows surrounding the Presidential Election. Financial data from 402 relevant healthcare firms is used in the analysis. Significant cumulative abnormal returns are observed for pharmaceutical/drug companies and healthcare companies in the event windows leading up to the election date. While negative in longer pre-event windows, returns become sharply positive on the days prior to the election. This is particularly true for pharmaceutical firms and healthcare stocks. Despite the prediction of Democrat victory in both the polls and in prediction markets, it is possible to show that the stock market accurately predicted a Republican victory in the General Election despite overwhelming odds indicating a Democrat victory

TLR9 polymorphisms in African populations: no association with severe malaria, but evidence of cis-variants acting on gene expression

BACKGROUND: During malaria infection the Toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9) is activated through induction with plasmodium DNA or another malaria motif not yet identified. Although TLR9 activation by malaria parasites is well reported, the implication to the susceptibility to severe malaria is not clear. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of genetic variation at TLR9 to severe malaria. METHODS: This study explores the contribution of TLR9 genetic variants to severe malaria using two approaches. First, an association study of four common single nucleotide polymorphisms was performed on both family- and population-based studies from Malawian and Gambian populations (n>6000 individual). Subsequently, it was assessed whether TLR9 expression is affected by cis-acting variants and if these variants could be mapped. For this work, an allele specific expression (ASE) assay on a panel of HapMap cell lines was carried out. RESULTS: No convincing association was found with polymorphisms in TLR9 for malaria severity, in either Gambian or Malawian populations, using both case-control and family based study designs. Using an allele specific expression assay it was observed that TLR9 expression is affected by cis-acting variants, these results were replicated in a second experiment using biological replicates. CONCLUSION: By using the largest cohorts analysed to date, as well as a standardized phenotype definition and study design, no association of TLR9 genetic variants with severe malaria was found. This analysis considered all common variants in the region, but it is remains possible that there are rare variants with association signals. This report also shows that TLR9 expression is potentially modulated through cis-regulatory variants, which may lead to differential inflammatory responses to infection between individuals

General principles for German surrender and occupation

Memorandum to Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson from Secretary of State Hull providing general principles for a German surrender and subsequent occupation of Germany

Discussion of extention of Danish political and economic interests to the whole of Greenland

Discussion of extention of Danish political and economic interests to the whole of Greenland, along with US status and interests in Greenland and the refusal of any occupation

Authorising investigation of activities of agents of foreign nations affecting neutrality of the US

Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, with an investigation of activities of agents of foreign nations

Copy of document handed by the US Secretary of State to the Japanese Ambassador in the US

Copy of document handed by the US Secretary of State to the Japanese Ambassador to the US. It discusses the importance of 'territorial intergrity and sovereignty' of countries, and the Japanese-proposed settlement conflicting with the US understanding of the general agreement on the Pacific

Note defining the administration of the Canton and Enderbury Islands

Note defining the administration of the Canton and Enderbury Islands, territorial waters, civil aviation and fifty years of joint control

Receipt of the King's instrument of ratification on the Treaty for the Advancement of Peace

Discussion as to which officials from various countries within the British Empire should be involved in the ratification process