Computational projection of virion transmission rates to the lower airway from the initial sars-cov-2 infection at the nasopharynx

https://www.rhinologyonline.org/Rhinology_online_issues/manuscript_240.pdfAccepted manuscrip

Individually Optimal Choices Can Be Collectively Disastrous in COVID-19 Disease Control

Background: The word \u27pandemic\u27 conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2-its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread-exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with measures aimed at limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Methods: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results: Our modeling demonstrates that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering suppression of SARS-CoV-2 spread ineffective. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level

An end is in sight: a perspective on PCR as an endpoint for Chagas disease treatment trials

Novel therapies for chronic indeterminate Chagas disease (CICD) are needed, but trials are limited by the absence of tests to detect infection and early treatment efficacy. This perspective highlights the shortfalls and strengths of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as a study endpoint for anti-parasitic drug development. Serologic reversion, the gold standard test of cure, may take decades to occur in adults and therefore is challenging as an endpoint for drug development. Use of PCR as a marker of infection and treatment response has notable limitations due to low parasitemia in CICD, fluctuations in circulating (versus tissue) parasite burden, strain differences, and assay performance. It is, however, rapidly responsive to therapy, and technological advances have improved detection of different strains and may allow for parasite quantification. Until we have more sensitive tests for parasitological clearance, PCR as a measure of treatment failure may be the best available efficacy endpoint to accelerate early development of much-needed novel therapies. Adequately designed clinical studies are needed to correlate PCR clearance with clinical outcomes and to identify novel biomarkers predictive of clinical outcomes in patients with CICD. Public-private partnerships and health authority engagement are paramount to identify feasible trial endpoints and deliver promising new drug candidates for Chagas disease

Endemicity is not a victory: the unmitigated downside risks of widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission

The strategy of relying solely on current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to halt SARS-CoV-2 transmission has proven infeasible. In response, many public-health authorities have advocated for using vaccines to limit mortality while permitting unchecked SARS-CoV-2 spread (“learning to live with the disease”). The feasibility of this strategy critically depends on the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2. An expectation exists that the IFR will decrease due to selection against virulence. In this work, we perform a viral fitness estimation to examine the basis for this expectation. Our findings suggest large increases in virulence for SARS-CoV-2 would result in minimal loss of transmissibility, implying that the IFR may vary freely under neutral evolutionary drift. We use an SEIRS model framework to examine the effect of hypothetical changes in the IFR on steady-state death tolls under COVID-19 endemicity. Our modeling suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 implies vast transmission resulting in yearly US COVID-19 death tolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands under many plausible scenarios, with even modest increases in the IFR leading to unsustainable mortality burdens. Our findings highlight the importance of enacting a concerted strategy and continued development of biomedical interventions to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission and slow its evolution.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8112/2/12/121Published versio

No magic bullet: limiting in-school transmission in the face of variable SARS-CoV-2 viral loads

In the face of a long-running pandemic, understanding the drivers of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission is crucial for the rational management of COVID-19 disease burden. Keeping schools open has emerged as a vital societal imperative during the pandemic, but in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can contribute to further prolonging the pandemic. In this context, the role of schools in driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission acquires critical importance. Here we model in-school transmission from first principles to investigate the effectiveness of layered mitigation strategies on limiting in-school spread. We examined the effect of masks and air quality (ventilation, filtration and ionizers) on steady-state viral load in classrooms, as well as on the number of particles inhaled by an uninfected person. The effectiveness of these measures in limiting viral transmission was assessed for variants with different levels of mean viral load (ancestral, Delta, Omicron). Our results suggest that a layered mitigation strategy can be used effectively to limit in-school transmission, with certain limitations. First, poorly designed strategies (insufficient ventilation, no masks, staying open under high levels of community transmission) will permit in-school spread even if some level of mitigation is present. Second, for viral variants that are sufficiently contagious, it may be difficult to construct any set of interventions capable of blocking transmission once an infected individual is present, underscoring the importance of other measures. Our findings provide practical recommendations; in particular, the use of a layered mitigation strategy that is designed to limit transmission, with other measures such as frequent surveillance testing and smaller class sizes (such as by offering remote schooling options to those who prefer it) as needed.National Science Foundationhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.941773/fullPublished versio

Anemia of Inflammation Is Related to Cognitive Impairment among Children in Leyte, The Philippines

Past studies have demonstrated that iron deficiency anemia is related to deficits in cognitive fucntioning in children, and treating iron deficiency anemia with iron supplementation can improve cognition. Anemia of inflammation is another type of anemia caused by many diseases of lesser-developed countries including bacterial and parasitic infections. Anemia of inflammation is characterized by disordered iron metabolism, such that iron is sequestered in storage forms, preventing its use from tissues that require it. We hypothesized that decreased iron delivery to the brain in the context of anemia of inflammation might lead to decreased cognitive performance. This study found that children with anemia of inflammation had decreased cognitive performance in specific domains, compared to subjects with no anemia. True total body iron deficiency anemia was related to lower performance in the same domains. The only treatment option for anemia of inflammation is treatment of the underlying disease. Iron supplementation will not prevent cognitive deficits in children with anemia of inflammation. Interventions aimed towards maximizing the cognitive development of children in lesser-developed countries will need to focus on the prevention and treatment of bacterial and parasitic infections

Genome-wide <i>in vivo</i> screen identifies novel host regulators of metastatic colonisation

Metastasis is the leading cause of death for cancer patients. This multi-stage process requires tumour cells to survive in the circulation, extravasate at distant sites, then proliferate; it involves contributions from both the tumour cell and tumour microenvironment ('host', which includes stromal cells and the immune system). Studies suggest the early steps of the metastatic process are relatively efficient, with the post-extravasation regulation of tumour growth ('colonization') being critical in determining metastatic outcome. Here we show the results of screening 810 mutant mouse lines using an in vivo assay to identify microenvironmental regulators of metastatic colonization. We identify 23 genes that, when disrupted in mouse, modify the ability of tumour cells to establish metastatic foci, with 19 of these genes not previously demonstrated to play a role in host control of metastasis. The largest reduction in pulmonary metastasis was observed in sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) transporter spinster homologue 2 (Spns2)-deficient mice. We demonstrate a novel outcome of S1P-mediated regulation of lymphocyte trafficking, whereby deletion of Spns2, either globally or in a lymphatic endothelial-specific manner, creates a circulating lymphopenia and a higher percentage of effector T cells and natural killer (NK) cells present in the lung. This allows for potent tumour cell killing, and an overall decreased metastatic burden.status: publishe

In the long shadow of our best intentions: Model-based assessment of the consequences of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the world grapples with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a particularly thorny set of questions surrounds the reopening of primary and secondary (K-12) schools. The benefits of in-person learning are numerous, in terms of education quality, mental health, emotional well-being, equity and access to food and shelter. Early reports suggested that children might have reduced susceptibility to COVID-19, and children have been shown to experience fewer complications than older adults. Over the past few months, our understanding of COVID-19 has been further shaped by emerging data, and it is now understood that children are as susceptible to infection as adults and have a similar viral load during infection, even if asymptomatic. Based on this updated understanding of the disease, we have used epidemiological modeling to explore the feasibility and consequences of school reopening in the face of differing rates of COVID-19 prevalence and transmission. We focused our analysis on the United States, but the results are applicable to other countries as well. We demonstrate the potential for a large discrepancy between detected cases and true infections in schools due to the combination of high asymptomatic rates in children coupled with delays in seeking testing and receiving results from diagnostic tests. Our findings indicate that, regardless of the initial prevalence of the disease, and in the absence of robust surveillance testing and contact-tracing, most schools in the United States can expect to remain open for 20-60 days without the emergence of sizeable disease clusters. At this point, even if schools choose to close after outbreaks occur, COVID-19 cases will be seeded from these school clusters and amplified into the community. Thus, our findings suggest that the debate between the risks to student safety and benefits of in-person learning frames a false dual choice. Reopening schools without surveillance testing and contact tracing measures in place will lead to spread within the schools and within the communities that eventually forces a return to remote learning and leaves a trail of infection in its wake

Clinical outcomes and inflammatory marker levels in patients with Covid-19 and obesity at an inner-city safety net hospital.

ObjectivesPatients with Covid-19 and obesity have worse clinical outcomes which may be driven by increased inflammation. This study aimed to characterize the association between clinical outcomes in patients with obesity and inflammatory markers.MethodsWe analyzed data for patients aged ≥18 years admitted with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine the association between BMI and intensive care unit (ICU) transfer and all-cause mortality. Inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], lactate dehydrogenase [LDH], ferritin, and D-dimer) were compared between patients with and without obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m2).ResultsOf 791 patients with Covid-19, 361 (45.6%) had obesity. In multivariate analyses, BMI ≥35 was associated with a higher odds of ICU transfer (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.388 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.074-5.310) and hospital mortality (aOR = 4.3, 95% CI: 1.69-10.82). Compared to those with BMIConclusionsPatients with obesity were more likely to have poor outcomes even without increased inflammation