Hurst exponent of very long birth time series in XX century Romania. Social and religious aspects

The Hurst exponent of very long birth time series in Romania has been extracted from official daily records, i.e. over 97 years between 1905 and 2001 included. The series result from distinguishing between families located in urban (U) or rural (R) areas, and belonging (Ox) or not (NOx) to the orthodox religion. Four time series combining both criteria, (U,R) and (Ox, NOx), are also examined. A statistical information is given on these sub-populations measuring their XX-th century state as a snapshot. However, the main goal is to investigate whether the "daily" production of babies is purely noisy or is fluctuating according to some non trivial fractional Brownian motion, - in the four types of populations, characterized by either their habitat or their religious attitude, yet living within the same political regime. One of the goals was also to find whether combined criteria implied a different behavior. Moreover, we wish to observe whether some seasonal periodicity exists. The detrended fluctuation analysis technique is used for finding the fractal correlation dimension of such (9) signals. It has been first necessary, due to two periodic tendencies, to define the range regime in which the Hurst exponent is meaningfully defined. It results that the birth of babies in all cases is a very strongly persistent signal. It is found that the signal fractal correlation dimension is weaker (i) for NOx than for Ox, and (ii) or U with respect to R. Moreover, it is observed that the combination of U or R with NOx or OX enhances the UNOx, UOx, and ROx fluctuations, but smoothens the RNOx signal, thereby suggesting a stronger conditioning on religiosity rituals or rules.Comment: 19 pages, 37 references, 6 figures, 2 tables, to be published in Physica

The influence of Lent on marriages and conceptions explored through a new methodology

What is the influence of religion on the actual behavior of people? The present paper introduces a methodology which permits a quantitative assessment. [1] have elsewhere analyzed the impact of Lent (prior to Easter) and Advent (prior to Christmas) on births in Romania. Here we broaden the analysis (i) by studying the effect of Lent on marriages as well as births (ii) by analyzing a number of other countries which allows a comparison with non-Orthodox countries. We also introduce a new methodology (that we call the “overlap probe”) which treats the data in a way that avoids any bias related to seasonal patterns. The comparison between the effects on marriages and conceptions appears of particular interest for it permits to assess the respective weights of social pressure on one hand and personal behavior on the other hand. Our analysis reveals a strong effect of Lent on marriages with a reduction by 80% in Eastern Orthodox countries and 40% in West European Catholic and Protestant countries. Since the influence of Lent on conceptions is independent of any form of direct social control one expects this effect to be much smaller. This is born out by our results which show that the birth effect is about 10 times smaller than the marriage effect. The overlap methodology is so accurate that it allows us to determine the average length of pregnancy (from intercourse to birth) with a precision of 2 or 3 days. This methodology is also used to investigate the impact of the month of Ramadan on birth and suicide rates

Evidence regarding external financing in manufacturing MSEs using partial least squares regression

The purpose of this study is to explore and explain the relationship between networking, external financing by banks and equity investors, and export effort in medium sized enterprises. Our research model was empirically tested on a sample of 143 MSEs in the manufacturing sector and our PLS results do not confirm the existence of a direct association between networking and export effort by MSEs. They show, however, that networking indirectly enhances MSEs’ export effort through facilitating their access to equity financing and reducing managerial risks. Whilst networking are not found to be associated with a higher access to bank financing by MSEs, this type of external financing seems to have a greater impact on export effort than equity financing. This research it is one of the first studies to explore the role of networking with stakeholders in facilitating MSEs’ access to external financing and to international markets and to merge these variables in a single model which consider simultaneously the MSE access to bank financing and to equity financing. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Evidence regarding external financing in manufacturing MSEs using partial least squares regression. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03291-

Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates

Here the term “high frequency” refers to daily, weekly or monthly birth data. The fluctuations of daily birth numbers show a succession of spikes and dips which, at least at first sight, looks almost as random as white noise. However in recent times several studies were published, including by the present authors, which have given better insight into how birth is affected by exogenous factors. This paper demonstrates how it is possible to examine the adverse effects of catastrophes such as famines, diseases, earthquakes and heat waves on conceptions and link these to subsequent large anomalous troughs in the birth rate. Using both contemporary and historical data we also explore the changes over time which have taken place in birth rate troughs that arise from religious edicts within the Orthodox and Catholic populations in Romania and France respectively. These as well as other effects raise the hope that we will soon be able to “read” and interpret birth rate patterns in the same manner as for example Egyptologists may decipher hieroglyphs

Effect of religious rules on time of conception in Romania from 1905 to 2001

study question: Does the interdiction of sexual intercourse during Nativity and Lent fasting periods have any effect on when babies are conceived in Romania, in the 20th century? summary answer: Based on date of birth records from the 20th century, Lent had a greater effect than the Nativity fast on conception within the Eastern Orthodox (ORTHD) population. what is known already: Seasonality of births (and therefore of conception) is affected by geographical factors (latitude, weather, day-length). Other demographic, economic and socio-cultural characteristics (education, ethnicity, religion) have been proved to have an influence on conception. study design, size, duration: The analyzed data consists of registered daily birth records for a long time series (35 429 points ¼ 365 (days/year) × 97 years + 24 leap years), with 24 947 061 births in Romania over the period 1905–2001. The data were obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses. participants/materials, setting, methods: Based on the reported birth date of each person, the estimated date of conception is computed using a standard gestation period of 280 days. The population was grouped into two categories (ORTHD and Non-Orthodox (NORTHD)) based on religious affiliation. Data analysis is performed in the same manner for both groups. Preliminary data analyses regarding seasonal variations in conception are considered first. Econometric models are applied and tested. The dependent variable in these models is the calculated date of conception, while the independent variables are: (i) religious affiliation; (ii) dates of Nativity and Lent fasts (the latter varies slightly from year to year); (iii) rural versus urban residence; (iv) length of day-light; (v) non-working days and (vi) trend. The models are tested for validity using analysis of variance while the regression coefficients are tested by the Student t-test. main results and the role of chance: All models are statistically valid (P , 0.01); all regression coefficients for the ORTHD group are valid (P , 0.01, except for rurality between 1990 and 2001, with P , 0.05). The data analysis indicates smaller standard error bars on the parameters for the ORTHD group as compared with the NORTHD group. The conclusion is that religious affiliation is an important factor in date of conception. limitations, reasons for caution: The data do not refer to all births during the analyzed period, but only to those persons still alive at the 1992 and 2002 censuses. The date of conception was estimated assuming 280 days for gestation, which is a medically accepted time interval but will undoubtedly vary. However, the primary independent variables (Lent and Nativity fast at 48 and 40 days, respectively) are long enough to overlap the uncertainty in the conception date following the sexual intercourse event.We also must assume that the religious affiliation of the parents is well defined, based on the information given by their offspring at census time, and is the same for both parents. wider implications of the findings: Our findings are consistent with other studies, which show differences between religious groups on date of conception, although we reach different conclusions regarding the influence of weather on fertility in Romania

Sustainable consumption behaviours in P2P accommodation platforms: an exploratory study

This paper examines how sustainable consumption behaviours are assembled in peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms, based on four factors—services portfolio complexity, network membership, reputation and innovative practices—and its impact on P2P platform performance. Using data from one P2P accommodation platform in Romania and based on 2556 observations, we tested the research hypothesis using ordinary least squares regression. Specifically, services portfolio complexity positively influences sustainable consumption behaviours, while network membership has a negative influence. Services portfolio complexity has a positive influence on sustainable consumption behaviours when innovative practices are high. Finally, sustainable consumption behaviours positively influence P2P platform performance. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Soft Computing. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00500-020-04681-6

Intriguing behavior when testing the impact of quotation marks usage in Google search results

Internet research on search engine quality and validity of results demand much concern. Thus, the focus in our study has been to measure the impact of quotation marks usage on the internet search outputs in terms of Google search outcomes’ distributions, through Benford Law. The current paper is focused on applying a Benford Law analysis on two related types of internet searches distinguished by the usage or absence of quotation marks. Both search results values are assumed as variables. We found that the first digit of outcomes does not follow the Benford Law first digit of numbers in the case of searching text without quotation marks. Unexpectedly, the Benford Law is obeyed when quotation marks are used, even if the variability of search outcomes is considerably reduced. By studying outputs demonstrating influences of (apparently at first) “details”, in using a search engine, the authors are able to further warn the users concerning the validity of such outputs. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Quality & Quantity. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0771-

Quantitative methods to analyze the severe obesity in Romania and its impact over public administration health expenditures

© 2018, Universitatea Babes-Bolyai. All rights reserved. In this article we present the situation of the Romanian population suffering from severe obesity (measured using BMI), focusing on specific situations with regard to age, gender, residence, development region or educational level. The main dataset used for the current paper is extracted from the Romanian Report for 2008 European Health Interview Survey (EHIS). The sample (a representative one) consists of more than 10,000 randomly selected households. Also, the article shows the consequences of this economic and social state especially for people who have been forced to seek surgical treatment. All financial estimates regarding the obesity burden are produced at country level

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of editor behavior through potentially coercive citations

© 2017 by the authors. How much is the h-index of an editor of a well-ranked journal improved due to citations which occur after his/her appointment? Scientific recognition within academia is widely measured nowadays by the number of citations or h-index. Our dataset is based on a sample of four editors from a well-ranked journal (impact factor, IF, greater than 2). The target group consists of two editors who seem to benefit by their position through an increased citation number (and subsequently h-index) within the journal. The total amount of citations for the target group is greater than 600. The control group is formed by another set of two editors from the same journal whose relations between their positions and their citation records remain neutral. The total amount of citations for the control group is more than 1200. The timespan for which the citations' pattern has been studied is 1975-2015. Previous coercive citations for a journal's benefit (an increase of its IF) has been indicated. To the best of our knowledge, this is a pioneering work on coercive citations for personal (editors') benefit. Editorial teams should be aware about this type of potentially unethical behavior and act accordingly

Effectiveness of an online intervention for parents/guardians of children aged 4-7 years who are concerned about their child's emotional and behavioural development: protocol for an online randomised controlled trial (EMERGENT study).

The demand for resources to support emotional and behavioural development in early childhood is ever increasing. However, conventional interventions are lacking in resources and have significant barriers. The Embers the Dragon programme helps address the growing unmet need of children requiring support. The delivery of the current project seeks to help support parents, reduce the burden placed on pressed services (eg, Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services) and to help improve the emotional and behavioural development of children. This project aims to investigate the efficacy and acceptability of Embers on parenting and children's psychosocial outcomes. 364 parents/guardians of children aged between 4 and 7 will be recruited via the internet, schools and general practitioners (GPs). This is an online waitlist-controlled trial with three arms: (1) control arm, (2) access to Embers arm and (3) access to Embers+school. Participants will be randomised (1:1) into (1) or (2) to evaluate the use of Embers at home. To evaluate scalability in schools, (3) will be compared with (2), and (1) to test efficacy against treatment as usual (not receiving the intervention). Qualitative interviews will also be conducted. Primary outcomes are the Parental Self-efficacy Scale, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Outcomes will be compared between the three groups at baseline, 8, 16 and 24 weeks. Ethical approval has been granted by the London South Bank University ethics panel (ETH2324-0004). To recruit via GPs, NHS ethical approval has been applied for, and the IRAS (331410) application is under consideration by the Central Bristol REC. The results of the project will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Parents/guardians will provide informed consent online prior to taking part in the study. For the interviews, assent will be taken from children by the researchers on the day. ISRCTN58327872. [Abstract copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.