Income shocks and suicides : causal evidence from Indonesia

We examine how income shocks affect the suicide rate in Indonesia. We use a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the cash transfer's nationwide roll-out, and corroborate the findings using a randomized experiment. Our estimates show that the cash transfers reduce the yearly suicide rate by 0.36 per 100,000 people, corresponding to an 18 percent decrease. Moreover, a different type of income shock, variability in agricultural productivity, also affects the suicide rate. The cash transfer program reduces the causal impact of the agricultural productivity shocks, suggesting an important role for policy interventions. Finally, we provide evidence for depression as a psychological mechanism

Coronavirus perceptions and economic anxiety

We provide one of the first systematic assessments of the development and determinants of economic anxiety at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Using a global dataset on internet searches and two representative surveys from the US, we document a substantial increase in economic anxiety during and after the arrival of the coronavirus. We also document a large dispersion in beliefs about the pandemic risk factors of the coronavirus, and demonstrate that these beliefs causally affect individuals’ economic anxieties. Finally, we show that individuals’ mental models of infectious disease spread understate non-linear growth and shape the extent of economic anxiety

Does party competition affect political activism?

This paper studies the decision of party supporters to join political campaigns. We present a framework that incorporates supporters’ instrumental and expressive motives and illustrates that party competition can either increase or decrease party activism. To distinguish between these competing predictions, we implemented a field experiment with a European party during a national election. In a seemingly unrelated party survey, we randomly assigned 1,417 party supporters to true information that the canvassing activity of the main competitor party was exceptionally high. Using unobtrusive, real-time data on party supporters’ canvassing behavior, we find that treated respondents are 30 percent less likely to go canvassing. To investigate the causal mechanism, we leverage additional survey evidence collected two months after the campaign. Consistent with affective accounts of political activism, we show that increased competition lowered party supporters’ political self-efficacy, which plausibly led them to remain inactive

Strategic interdependence in political movements and counter movements

We study participation in right-wing rallies and counterrallies in Germany to examine strategic interactions in political movements. In the leadup to two right-wing rallies, we exogenously shift potential participants’ beliefs about the turnout at the right-wing rally and left-wing counterrally, and then measure activists’ intentions to protest. For right-wing activists, own participation and participation of peers exhibit strategic substitutability. For left-wing activists, own participation and participation of peers are strategic complements. Both groups do not, however, react to changes in competitor effort. Our evidence highlights substantial heterogeneity in the nature of strategic interactions in political movements

Grundbodenbearbeitung im Ökolandbau – eine Betriebsumfrage

Um einen Überblick über die aktuelle Situation der Bodenbearbeitung auf Ökobetrieben in Deutschland zu erhalten, wurde ein Fragebogen an 3000 Ökobetriebe verschickt. 367 Ackerbauern beantworteten fünf Fragen zur Bodenbearbeitung auf ihren Betieben. 56% der Betriebe geben an nur mit dem Pflug zu arbeiten, 38 % nennen neben dem Pflug mindestens ein weiteres Gerät zur Grundbodenbearbeitung und 6% arbeiten ohne Pflug. 42% der befragten ökobauern bearbeiten den Boden tiefer als 22 cm. 22% der Betriebe arbeiten maximal 15 cm tief. Die Ergebnisse zur Bearbeitungstiefe zeigen, dass sich im Ökolandbau in Deutschland im Vergleich zu einer ähnlichen Umfrage von 1990 eine intensivere Bodenbearbeitung durchgesetzt hat

Group Size and Protest Mobilization across Movements and Countermovements

Many social movements face fierce resistance in the form of a countermovement. Therefore, when deciding to become politically active, a movement supporter has to consider both her own movement’s activity and that of the opponent. This paper studies the decision of a movement supporter to attend a protest when faced with a counterprotest. We implement two field experiments among supporters of a right- and left-leaning movement ahead of two protest–counterprotest interactions in Germany. Supporters were exposed to low or high official estimates about their own and the opposing group’s turnout. We find that the size of the opposing group has no effect on supporters’ protest intentions. However, as the own protest gets larger, supporters of the right-leaning movement become less while supporters of the left-leaning movement become more willing to protest. We argue that the difference is best explained by stronger social motives on the political left.Peer Reviewe

Jobseekers' beliefs about comparative advantage and (mis)directed search

Worker sorting into tasks and occupations has long been recognized as an impor¬tant feature of labor markets. But this sorting may be inefficient if jobseekers have inaccurate beliefs about their skills and therefore apply to jobs that do not match their skills. To test this idea, we measure young South African jobseekers’ communication and numeracy skills and their beliefs about their skill levels. Many jobseekers be¬lieve they are better at the skill in which they score lower, relative to other jobseekers. These beliefs predict the skill requirements of jobs where they apply. In two field ex¬periments, giving jobseekers their skill assessment results shifts their beliefs toward their assessment results. It also redirects their search toward jobs that value the skill in which they score relatively higher – using measures from administrative, incentivized task, and survey data – but does not increase total search effort. It also raises earnings and job quality, consistent with inefficient sorting due to limited information

Jobseekers’ Beliefs about Comparative Advantage and (Mis)Directed Search

Worker sorting into tasks and occupations has long been recognized as an important feature of labor markets. But this sorting may be inefficient if jobseekers have inaccurate beliefs about their skills and therefore apply to jobs that do not match their skills. To test this idea, we measure young South African jobseekers’ communication and numeracy skills and their beliefs about their skill levels. Many jobseekers believe they are better at the skill in which they score lower, relative to other jobseekers. These beliefs predict the skill requirements of jobs where they apply. In two field experiments, giving jobseekers their skill assessment results shifts their beliefs toward their assessment results. It also redirects their search toward jobs that value the skill in which they score relatively higher—using measures from administrative, incentivized task, and survey data—but does not increase total search effort. It also raises earnings and job quality, consistent with inefficient sorting due to limited information

Relevant baseline characteristics for describing patients with knee osteoarthritis: results from a Delphi survey

BACKGROUND: Inclusion/exclusion criteria and baseline characteristics are essential for assessing the applicability of trial results to a given patient and the comparability of study populations for meta-analyses. This Delphi survey aimed to generate a set of baseline characteristics for describing patients with knee osteoarthritis enrolled in clinical studies. METHODS: Survey participants comprised clinical experts (n = 23; mean age 54 y; from 4 continents) that had authored at least two randomized trials on knee osteoarthritis. First, given a prepared list of baseline patient characteristics, the experts were asked to add characteristics they considered important for assessing comparability of patient populations in different trials that evaluated the efficacy of non-surgical interventions for treating knee osteoarthritis. Next, they were asked to rate the importance of each characteristic, on a scale of 0 (not important) to 10 (highly important), according to three outcome categories: pain, function, and structure. RESULTS: Participants identified 121 baseline characteristics. A rating ≥7 points was assigned to 39 characteristics (e.g., age, depression, global knee pain, daily dose of pain killers, Kellgren-Lawrence grading); of these, 20 were related to pain, 15 to function, and 23 to structural outcomes. Global knee pain was the only baseline characteristic that fulfilled among experts the predefined consensus criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Experts identified a large number of characteristics for describing patients with knee osteoarthritis. Disagreement and uncertainty prevailed over the relevance of these characteristics. Our findings justified further efforts to define appropriate, broadly acceptable sets of baseline characteristics for describing patients with knee osteoarthritis