Data-driven models for predicting microbial water quality in the drinking water source using E. coli monitoring and hydrometeorological data

Rapid changes in microbial water quality in surface waters pose challenges for production of safe drinking water. If not treated to an acceptable level, microbial pathogens present in the drinking water can result in severe consequences for public health. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the suitability of data-driven models of different complexity for predicting the concentrations of E. coli in the river G\uf6ta \ue4lv at the water intake of the drinking water treatment plant in Gothenburg, Sweden. The objectives were to (i) assess how the complexity of the model affects the model performance; and (ii) identify relevant factors and assess their effect as predictors of E. coli levels. To forecast E. coli levels one day ahead, the data on laboratory measurements of E. coli and total coliforms, Colifast measurements of E. coli, water temperature, turbidity, precipitation, and water flow were used. The baseline approaches included Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), which are commonly used univariate methods, and a naive baseline that used the previous observed value as its next prediction. Also, models common in the machine learning domain were included: LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) Regression and Random Forest, and a tool for optimising machine learning pipelines – TPOT (Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool). Also, a multivariate autoregressive model VAR (Vector Autoregression) was included. The models that included multiple predictors performed better than univariate models. Random Forest and TPOT resulted in higher performance but showed a tendency of overfitting. Water temperature, microbial concentrations upstream and at the water intake, and precipitation upstream were shown to be important predictors. Data-driven modelling enables water producers to interpret the measurements in the context of what concentrations can be expected based on the recent historic data, and thus identify unexplained deviations warranting further investigation of their origin

Animal Welfare Implications of Digital Tools for Monitoring and Management of Cattle and Sheep on Pasture

Simple SummaryMonitoring the welfare of cattle and sheep in large pastures can be time-consuming, especially if the animals are scattered over large areas in semi-natural pastures. There are several technologies for monitoring animals with wearable or remote equipment for recording physiological or behavioural parameters and trigger alarms when the acquired information deviates from the normal. Automatic equipment allows continuous monitoring and may give more information than manual monitoring. Ear tags with electronic identification can detect visits to specific points. Collars with positioning (GPS) units can assess the animals' movements and habitat selection and, to some extent, their health and welfare. Digitally determined virtual fences, instead of the traditional physical ones, have the potential to keep livestock within a predefined area using audio signals in combination with weak electric shocks, although some individuals may have difficulties in responding as intended, potentially resulting in reduced animal welfare. Remote technology such as drones equipped with cameras can be used to count animals, determine their position and study their behaviour. Drones can also herd and move animals. However, the knowledge of the potential effects on animal welfare of digital technology for monitoring and managing grazing livestock is limited, especially regarding drones and virtual fences.The opportunities for natural animal behaviours in pastures imply animal welfare benefits. Nevertheless, monitoring the animals can be challenging. The use of sensors, cameras, positioning equipment and unmanned aerial vehicles in large pastures has the potential to improve animal welfare surveillance. Directly or indirectly, sensors measure environmental factors together with the behaviour and physiological state of the animal, and deviations can trigger alarms for, e.g., disease, heat stress and imminent calving. Electronic positioning includes Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for the recording of animals at fixed points. Positioning units (GPS) mounted on collars can determine animal movements over large areas, determine their habitat and, somewhat, health and welfare. In combination with other sensors, such units can give information that helps to evaluate the welfare of free-ranging animals. Drones equipped with cameras can also locate and count the animals, as well as herd them. Digitally defined virtual fences can keep animals within a predefined area without the use of physical barriers, relying on acoustic signals and weak electric shocks. Due to individual variations in learning ability, some individuals may be exposed to numerous electric shocks, which might compromise their welfare. More research and development are required, especially regarding the use of drones and virtual fences

Hepatitis E virus genotype 3 strains and a plethora of other viruses detected in raw and still in tap water

\ua9 2019 The Authors In this study, next generation sequencing was used to explore the virome in 20L up to 10,000L water from different purification steps at two Swedish drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs), and in tap water. One DWTP used ultrafiltration (UF) with 20 nm pores, the other UV light treatment after conventional treatment of the water. Viruses belonging to 26 different families were detected in raw water, in which 6–9 times more sequence reads were found for phages than for known environmental, plant or vertebrate viruses. The total number of viral reads was reduced more than 4-log10 after UF and 3-log10 over UV treatment. However, for some viruses the reduction was 3.5-log10 after UF, as for hepatitis E virus (HEV), which was also detected in tap water, with sequences similar to those in raw water and after treatment. This indicates that HEV had passed through the treatment and entered into the supply network. However, the viability of the viruses is unknown. In tap water 10–130 International Units of HEV RNA/mL were identified, which is a comparable low amount of virus. The risk of getting infected through consumption of tap water is probably negligible, but needs to be investigated. The HEV strains in the waters belonged to subtypes HEV3a and HEV3c/i, which is associated with unknown source of infection in humans infected in Sweden. None of these subtypes are common among pigs or wild boar, the major reservoirs for HEV, indicating that water may play a role in transmitting this virus. The results indicate that monitoring small fecal/oral transmitted viruses in DWTPs may be considered, especially during community outbreaks, to prevent potential transmission by tap water

Biomarkers of Alzheimer’s disease and cerebrovascular disease in relation to depressive symptomatology in individuals with subjective cognitive decline

Background: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) has gained recent interest as a potential harbinger of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD). In addition, SCD can be related to depressive symptomatology. However, the association between AD and CVD biomarkers, depressive symptomatology, and SCD is still unclear. We investigated the association of AD and CVD biomarkers and depressive symptomatology with SCD in individuals with subjective memory complaints (SCD-memory group) and individuals with subjective concentration complaints (SCD-concentration group).// Methods: We recruited a population-based cohort of 217 individuals (all aged 70 years, 53% female, 119 SCD-memory individuals, 23 SCD-concentration individuals, 89 controls). AD and CVD were assessed through cerebrospinal fluid levels of the Aβ42/40 ratio and phosphorylated tau, and white matter signal abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging, respectively. Associations between biomarkers, depressive symptomatology, and SCD were tested via logistic regression and correlation analyses.// Results: We found a significant association of depressive symptomatology with SCD-memory and SCD-concentration. Depressive symptomatology was not associated with AD and CVD biomarkers. Both the phosphorylated tau biomarker and depressive symptomatology predicted SCD-memory, and the Aβ42/40 ratio and depressive symptomatology predicted SCD-concentration.// Conclusions: The role of depressive symptomatology in SCD may differ depending on the stage within the spectrum of preclinical AD (as determined by amyloid-beta and tau positivity), and does not seem to reflect AD pathology. Our findings contribute to the emerging field of subclinical depressive symptomatology in SCD, and clarify the association of different types of subjective complaints with distinct syndromic and biomarker profiles

Tractable non-local correlation density functionals for flat surfaces and slabs

A systematic approach for the construction of a density functional for van der Waals interactions that also accounts for saturation effects is described, i.e. one that is applicable at short distances. A very efficient method to calculate the resulting expressions in the case of flat surfaces, a method leading to an order reduction in computational complexity, is presented. Results for the interaction of two parallel jellium slabs are shown to agree with those of a recent RPA calculation (J.F. Dobson and J. Wang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 2123 1999). The method is easy to use; its input consists of the electron density of the system, and we show that it can be successfully approximated by the electron densities of the interacting fragments. Results for the surface correlation energy of jellium compare very well with those of other studies. The correlation-interaction energy between two parallel jellia is calculated for all separations d, and substantial saturation effects are predicted.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Unified Treatment of Asymptotic van der Waals Forces

In a framework for long-range density-functional theory we present a unified full-field treatment of the asymptotic van der Waals interaction for atoms, molecules, surfaces, and other objects. The only input needed consists of the electron densities of the interacting fragments and the static polarizability or the static image plane, which can be easily evaluated in a ground-state density-functional calculation for each fragment. Results for separated atoms, molecules, and for atoms/molecules outside surfaces are in agreement with those of other, more elaborate, calculations.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Digital tillsynsteknik i djurhållning utomhus

I enlighet med Jordbruksverkets förfrågan behandlar denna rapport tre områden för digital teknik vid övervakning och kontroll av djur som vistas utomhus på stora ytor: (1) kamerateknologi, t.ex. användning av drönare, (2) positioneringsteknologi som GPS och (3) teknologi för att styra djurens rörelser, som drivning med drönare och användning av s.k. virtuella stängsel. De tre teknikområdena överlappar delvis varandra. Digital tillsyn av utegående djur är beroende av att sensorer mäter det man tror att de mäter med tillräcklig noggrannhet och att data kan överföras och bearbetas till information som lagras och analyseras på ett säkert och korrekt sätt. Sådana teknologier benämns med samlingsnamnet ’Precision Livestock Farming’ (PLF). Användningen av informationen är avgörande för teknikens användbarhet i tillsyns- och djurskyddsarbete. Tillämpningarna är till viss del reglerade av gällande lagstiftning, exempelvis genom krav på tillsyn, begränsad användning av elektricitet för att styra djurs beteende, användning av obemannade luftfarkoster, d.v.s. drönare, samt åtgärder för att förhindra att utrustning skadar djuren eller påverkar deras hälsa och beteende. Inom PLF används en rad olika sensorer som direkt eller indirekt kan mäta djurens miljö och djurens beteende och fysiologiska tillstånd. Den teknologiska utvecklingen har främst varit inriktad på mjölkkor, fjäderfän och grisar och endast i liten utsträckning berört häst, får och get. För djur på bete är överföringen av data från en enhet på eller vid djuret till en mottagare särskilt problematisk p.g.a. stora avstånd, men det sker en snabb teknisk utveckling mot effektivare överföring. PLF-teknologin innebär i de flesta fall att djuren övervakas kontinuerligt och att avvikelser i t.ex. deras hälsotillstånd och välfärd i princip kan upptäckas i realtid, vilket ska ställas mot nuvarande lagkrav på tillsyn minst en eller två gånger dagligen. Sensorer kan ge information om ett stort antal fysiologiska tillstånd och beteenden. En av de vanligaste teknikerna är sensorer för aktivitet. Indirekt kan de också ge information om idissling, liggtid, stegantal och ättid och utlösa larm om exempelvis brunst, hälsoproblem, hälta och kalvning. Sensorer kan även placeras i förmagen hos idisslare (s.k. våmbolus) där de mäter våm-pH och kan larma om störningar i magfunktionen, eller utformas som termometrar som kan larma om hälsostörningar, kalvning och vattenintag eller mikrofoner som kan mäta idissling och larma om brunst, kalvning och onormalt idisslingsmönster. Med kamerateknik kan man mäta aktivitet, kroppsform och hudtemperatur, vilket kan ge information om ketosstatus, hull, hälta och juverhälsa. Kameror monterade på drönare kan användas för att lokalisera och räkna djur, bestämma deras position, habitatval och till viss del deras beteende, särskilt när djuren rör sig över stora arealer. Det finns flera elektroniska positioneringsteknologier varav passiv ’Radio Frequency Identification RFID’ är den vanligaste. Räckvidden är kort med denna teknik men den kan vara användbar om man t.ex. vill mäta hur ofta djuren besöker en vattenpost. Andra teknologier kan med hjälp av antenner följa djurens positioner i realtid. GPS-enheter monterade i halsband kan regelbundet registrera djurens geografiska position. Användningen av GPS har blivit relativt vanlig i renskötseln vilket tycks ha lett till en förbättrad arbetssituation för renskötarna. Positionering med GPS ger inte alltid exakta uppgifter men tekniken har visat sig användbar för studier av habitatval, sociala interaktioner och gruppdynamik. Med positionerna från GPS har man också kunnat styra djur till områden med bättre betestillgång. Med en tillräckligt frekvent bestämning av position med hjälp av GPS (ca en gång per minut) är det möjligt att bestämma betestiden för nötkreatur på ett tillförlitligt sätt. En användning av drönare i djurskötsel och djurtillsyn kan vara att med hjälp av kamera lokalisera djuren över stora ytor. Denna användning begränsas dock av nuvarande bestämmelser om att föraren måste ha ögontakt med drönaren. I renskötseln har drönare börjat användas för att förflytta djur men denna tillämpning är ännu inte juridiskt reglerad. Virtuella stängsel är strukturer som bestäms med kartkoordinater eller elektronisk sändare på marken. Stängslen fungerar som inhägnader, hinder eller gränser. Djuren mottar signaler (vanligen ljud) och stimuli (vanligen elstötar från ett halsband) som gör det möjligt för dem att lära sig var stängslet finns. I vetenskapliga studier har man med varierande framgång lyckats lära djuren att associera ljudsignaler och elstötar med en gräns som inte får passeras. Förmågan att lära sig skiljer mellan olika djurslag, liksom mellan individer. Det finns fortfarande många obesvarade frågeställningar om hur djur kan anpassa sig till virtuella stängselsystemet, liksom hur de påverkas, både under inlärningsfas och bruksfas