Approximate Bayesian Model Selection with the Deviance Statistic

Bayesian model selection poses two main challenges: the specification of parameter priors for all models, and the computation of the resulting Bayes factors between models. There is now a large literature on automatic and objective parameter priors in the linear model. One important class are $g$-priors, which were recently extended from linear to generalized linear models (GLMs). We show that the resulting Bayes factors can be approximated by test-based Bayes factors (Johnson [Scand. J. Stat. 35 (2008) 354-368]) using the deviance statistics of the models. To estimate the hyperparameter $g$, we propose empirical and fully Bayes approaches and link the former to minimum Bayes factors and shrinkage estimates from the literature. Furthermore, we describe how to approximate the corresponding posterior distribution of the regression coefficients based on the standard GLM output. We illustrate the approach with the development of a clinical prediction model for 30-day survival in the GUSTO-I trial using logistic regression.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-STS510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Using the fast impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional land temperature to constrain aerosol forcing

Anthropogenic aerosols have been postulated to have a cooling effect on climate, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Using atmospheric general circulation model simulations, we separate the land temperature response into a fast response to radiative forcings and a slow response to changing oceanic conditions and find that the former accounts for about one fifth of the observed warming of the Northern Hemisphere land during summer and autumn since the 1960s. While small, this fast response can be constrained by observations. Spatially varying aerosol effects can be detected on the regional scale, specifically warming over Europe and cooling over Asia. These results provide empirical evidence for the important role of aerosols in setting regional land temperature trends and point to an emergent constraint that suggests strong global aerosol forcing and high transient climate response

Using the fast impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional land temperature to constrain aerosol forcing

Anthropogenic aerosols have been postulated to have a cooling effect on climate, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Using atmospheric general circulation model simulations, we separate the land temperature response into a fast response to radiative forcings and a slow response to changing oceanic conditions and find that the former accounts for about one fifth of the observed warming of the Northern Hemisphere land during summer and autumn since the 1960s. While small, this fast response can be constrained by observations. Spatially varying aerosol effects can be detected on the regional scale, specifically warming over Europe and cooling over Asia. These results provide empirical evidence for the important role of aerosols in setting regional land temperature trends and point to an emergent constraint that suggests strong global aerosol forcing and high transient climate response

Westward-propagating Rossby modes in idealized GCMs

This work investigates the characteristics of westward-propagating Rossby modes in idealized global general circulation models. Using a nonlinear smoothing algorithm to estimate the background spectrum and an objective method to extract the spectral peaks, the four leading meridional modes can be identified for each of the first three zonal wavenumbers, with frequencies close to the predictions from the Hough modes obtained by linearizing about a state of rest. Variations in peak amplitude for different modes, both within a simulation and across simulations, may be understood under the assumption that the forcing of the modes scales with the background spectrum. Surface friction affects the amplitude and width of the peaks but both remain finite as friction goes to zero, which implies that some other mechanism, arguably nonlinear, must also contribute to the damping of the modes. Although spectral peaks are also observed for the precipitation field with idealized moist physics, there is no evidence of mode enhancement by the convective heating. Subject to the same friction, the amplitude of the peaks are very similar in the dry and moist models when both are normalized by the background spectra

A global perspective on African climate

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals

Abrupt Transition to Strong Superrotation in an Axisymmetric Model of the Upper Troposphere

Abrupt transitions to strongly superrotating states have been found in some idealized models of the troposphere. These transitions are thought to be caused by feedbacks between the eddy momentum flux convergence in low latitudes and the strength of the equatorial flow. The behavior of an axisymmetric shallow-water model with an applied tropical torque is studied here to determine if an abrupt transition can be realized without eddy feedbacks. The upper-tropospheric layer is relaxed to a radiative equilibrium thickness, exchanging mass and thus momentum with the nonmoving lower layer. For low values of the applied torque, the circulation is earthlike; however, for larger values, an abrupt transition to a strongly superrotating state can occur. In some cases, the system remains superrotating as the torque is subsequently decreased. A simple analytical model is used to better understand the system. The bifurcation is caused by a feedback between the applied torque and the strength of the Hadley cell. As the torque increases, the strength of the cell decreases, reducing the damping caused by momentum transfer from the lower layer

Using Relative Humidity as a State Variable in Climate Feedback Analysis

An approach to climate change feedback analysis is described in which tropospheric relative humidity replaces specific humidity as the state variable that, along with the temperature structure, surface albedos, and clouds, controls the magnitude of the response of global mean surface temperature to a radiative forcing. Despite being simply a regrouping of terms in the feedback analysis, this alternative perspective has the benefit of removing most of the pervasive cancellation between water and lapse-rate feedbacks seen in models. As a consequence, the individual feedbacks have less scatter than in the traditional formulation. The role of cloud feedbacks in controlling climate sensitivity is also reflected more clearly in the new formulation.Keywords: Climate sensitivity, Climate change, Water vapor, Humidity, Feedbac

Simulation of the Recent Multidecadal Increase of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using an 18-km-Grid Regional Model

In this study, a new modeling framework for simulating Atlantic hurricane activity is introduced. The model is an 18-km-grid nonhydrostatic regional model, run over observed specified SSTs and nudged toward observed time-varying large-scale atmospheric conditions (Atlantic domain wavenumbers 0-2) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Using this perfect large-scale model approach for 27 recent August-October seasons (1980-2006), it is found that the model successfully reproduces the observed multidecadal increase in numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and several other tropical cyclone (TC) indices over this period. The correlation of simulated versus observed hurricane activity by year varies from 0.87 for basin-wide hurricane counts to 0.41 for U.S. landfalling hurricanes. For tropical storm count, accumulated cyclone energy, and TC power dissipation indices the correlation is similar to 0.75, for major hurricanes the correlation is 0.69, and for U.S. landfalling tropical storms, the correlation is 0.57. The model occasionally simulates hurricanes intensities of up to category 4 (similar to 942 mb) in terms of central pressure, although the surface winds (\u3c 47 in s-1) do not exceed category-2 intensity. On interannual time scales, the model reproduces the observed ENSO-Atlantic hurricane covariation reasonably well. Some notable aspects of the highly contrasting 2005 and 2006 seasons are well reproduced, although the simulated activity during the 2006 core season was excessive. The authors conclude that the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring mechanisms of hurricane variability in the Atlantic (e.g., shear versus potential intensity contributions). The model may be capable of making useful simulations/projections of pre-1980 or twentieth-century Atlantic hurricane activity. However, the reliability of these projections will depend on obtaining reliable large-scale atmospheric and SST conditions from sources external to the model