The Statistics of Negative Power Spectrum Systematics in some 21 cm Analyses

Through a very careful analysis Kolopanis et al. (2022) identified a negative power spectrum (PS) systematic. The 21 cm cosmology community has assumed that any observational systematics would add power, as negative PS are non-physical. In addition to the mystery of their origin, negative PS systematics raise the spectre of artificially lowering upper limits on the 21 cm PS. It appears that the source of the negative PS systematics is a subtle interaction between choices in how the PS estimate is calculated and baseline-dependent systematic power. In this paper we present a statistical model of baseline dependent systematics to explore how negative PS systematics can appear and their statistical characteristics. This leads us to recommendations on when and how to consider negative PS systematics when reporting observational 21 cm cosmology upper limit.Comment: Submitted to MNRA

Why and When to Expect Gaussian Error Distributions in Epoch of Reionization 21-cm Power Spectrum Measurements

We explore error distributions in Epoch of Reionization 21-cm power spectrum estimators using a combination of mathematical analysis and numerical simulations. We provide closed form solutions for the error distributions of individual bins in 3d-power spectra for two estimators currently in use in the field, which we designate as ``straight-square" and ``cross-multiply" estimators. We then demonstrate when the corresponding spherically binned power spectra should (and should not) have Gaussian error distributions, which requires appealing to nonstandard statements of the central limit theorem. This has important implications for how upper limits are reported, as well as how cosmological inferences are performed based on power spectrum measurements. Specifically, assuming a Gaussian error distribution can over or underestimate the upper limit depending on the type of estimator, and produces overly compact likelihood functions for the power spectrum

Understanding the diversity of 21 cm cosmology analyses

21 cm power spectrum observations have the potential to revolutionize our understanding of the epoch of reionization and dark energy, but require extraordinarily precise data analysis methods to separate the cosmological signal from the astrophysical and instrumental contaminants. This analysis challenge has led to a diversity of proposed analyses, including delay spectra, imaging power spectra, m-mode analysis, and numerous others. This diversity of approach is a strength, but has also led to a confusion within the community about whether insights gleaned by one group are applicable to teams working in different analysis frameworks. In this paper, we show that all existing analysis proposals can be classified into two distinct families based on whether they estimate the power spectrum of the measured or reconstructed sky. This subtle difference in the statistical question posed largely determines the susceptibility of the analyses to foreground emission and calibration errors, and ultimately the science different analyses can pursue. In this paper, we detail the origin of the two analysis families, categorize the analyses being actively developed, and explore their relative sensitivities to foreground contamination and calibration errors.National Science Foundation (NSF) [1613855, 1613040, 1506024, 1636646]; National Aeronautivcal and Space Administration [80NSSC18K0389]; NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship [1701440]This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Positron clouds within thunderstorms

We report the observation of two isolated clouds of positrons inside an active thunderstorm. These observations were made by the Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE), an array of six gamma-ray detectors, which flew on a Gulfstream V jet aircraft through the top of an active thunderstorm in August 2009. ADELE recorded two 511 keV gamma-ray count rate enhancements, 35 seconds apart, each lasting approximately 0.2 seconds. The enhancements, which were about a factor of 12 above background, were both accompanied by electrical activity as measured by a flat-plate antenna on the underside of the aircraft. The energy spectra were consistent with a source mostly composed of positron annihilation gamma rays, with a prominent 511 keV line clearly visible in the data. Model fits to the data suggest that the aircraft was briefly immersed in clouds of positrons, more than a kilometer across. It is not clear how the positron clouds were created within the thunderstorm, but it is possible they were caused by the presence of the aircraft in the electrified environment.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Journal of Plasma Physic

Mapping Cosmic Dawn and Reionization: Challenges and Synergies

Cosmic dawn and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are among the least explored observational eras in cosmology: a time at which the first galaxies and supermassive black holes formed and reionized the cold, neutral Universe of the post-recombination era. With current instruments, only a handful of the brightest galaxies and quasars from that time are detectable as individual objects, due to their extreme distances. Fortunately, a multitude of multi-wavelength intensity mapping measurements, ranging from the redshifted 21 cm background in the radio to the unresolved X-ray background, contain a plethora of synergistic information about this elusive era. The coming decade will likely see direct detections of inhomogenous reionization with CMB and 21 cm observations, and a slew of other probes covering overlapping areas and complementary physical processes will provide crucial additional information and cross-validation. To maximize scientific discovery and return on investment, coordinated survey planning and joint data analysis should be a high priority, closely coupled to computational models and theoretical predictions.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Science White Paper cal