A marketing science perspective on recognition-based heuristics (and the fast-and-frugal paradigm)

Marketing science seeks to prescribe better marketing strategies (advertising, product development, pricing, etc.). To do so we rely on models of consumer decisions grounded in empirical observations. Field experience suggests that recognition-based heuristics help consumers to choose which brands to consider and purchase in frequently-purchased categories, but other heuristics are more relevant in durable-goods categories. Screening with recognition is a rational screening rule when advertising is a signal of product quality, when observing other consumers makes it easy to learn decision rules, and when firms react to engineering-design constraints by offering brands such that a high-level on one product feature implies a low level on another product feature. Experience with applications and field experiments suggests four fruitful research topics: deciding how to decide (endogeneity), learning decision rules by self-reflection, risk reduction, and the difference between utility functions and decision rules. These challenges also pose methodological cautions.Sloan School of Managemen

A Measurement Error Approach for Modeling Consumer Risk Preference

Von Neumann-Morgenstern (vN-M) utility theory is the dominant theoretical model of risk preference. Recently, market researchers have adapted vN-M theory to model consumer risk preference. But, most applications assess utility functions by asking just n questions to specify n parameters. However, any questioning format, especially under market research conditions, introduces measurement error. This paper explores the implications of measurement error on the estimation of the unknown parameters in vN-M utility functions and provides procedures to deal with measurement error. We assume that the functional form of the utility function, but not its parameters, can be determined a priori through qualitative questioning. We then model measurement error as if question format and other influences cause the consumer to choose the unknown “risk parameter” from a probability distribution and to make his decisions accordingly. We provide procedures to estimate the unknown parameters when the measurement error is either (a) Normal or (b) Exponential. Uncertainty in risk parameters induces uncertainty in utility and expected utility, and hence uncertainty in choice outcomes. Thus, we derive the induced probability distributions of the consumer\u27s utility and the estimators for the implied probability that an alternative is chosen. Results are obtained for both the standard decision analysis “preference indifference” question format and for a “revealed preference” format in which the consumer is asked simply to choose between two risky alternatives. Since uniattribute functions illustrate the essential risk preference properties of vN-M functions, we emphasize uniattribute results. We also provide multiattribute estimation procedures. Numerical examples illustrate the analytical results

Learning from Experience, Simply

There is substantial academic interest in modeling consumer experiential learning. However, (approximately) optimal solutions to forward-looking experiential learning problems are complex, limiting their behavioral plausibility and empirical feasibility. We propose that consumers use cognitively simple heuristic strategies. We explore one viable heuristic—index strategies—and demonstrate that they are intuitive, tractable, and plausible. Index strategies are much simpler for consumers to use but provide close-to-optimal utility. They also avoid exponential growth in computational complexity, enabling researchers to study learning models in more complex situations. Well-defined index strategies depend on a structural property called indexability. We prove the indexability of a canonical forward-looking experiential learning model in which consumers learn brand quality while facing random utility shocks. Following an index strategy, consumers develop an index for each brand separately and choose the brand with the highest index. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate that an index strategy achieves nearly optimal utility at substantially lower computational costs. Using IRI data for diapers, we find that an index strategy performs as well as an approximately optimal solution and better than myopic learning. We extend the analysis to incorporate risk aversion, other cognitively simple heuristics, heterogeneous foresight, and an alternative specification of brands

Design and Evaluation of Product Aesthetics: A Human-Machine Hybrid Approach

Aesthetics are critically important to market acceptance in many product categories. In the automotive industry in particular, an improved aesthetic design can boost sales by 30% or more. Firms invest heavily in designing and testing new product aesthetics. A single automotive "theme clinic" costs between \$100,000 and \$1,000,000, and hundreds are conducted annually. We use machine learning to augment human judgment when designing and testing new product aesthetics. The model combines a probabilistic variational autoencoder (VAE) and adversarial components from generative adversarial networks (GAN), along with modeling assumptions that address managerial requirements for firm adoption. We train our model with data from an automotive partner-7,000 images evaluated by targeted consumers and 180,000 high-quality unrated images. Our model predicts well the appeal of new aesthetic designs-38% improvement relative to a baseline and substantial improvement over both conventional machine learning models and pretrained deep learning models. New automotive designs are generated in a controllable manner for the design team to consider, which we also empirically verify are appealing to consumers. These results, combining human and machine inputs for practical managerial usage, suggest that machine learning offers significant opportunity to augment aesthetic design

The Strategic Implications of Scale in Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis

Choice-based conjoint (CBC) studies have begun to rely on simulators to forecast equilibrium prices for pricing, strategic product positioning, and patent/copyright valuations. Whereas CBC research has long focused on the accuracy of estimated relative partworths of attribute levels, predicted equilibrium prices and strategic positioning are surprisingly and dramatically dependent on scale: the magnitude of the partworths (including the price coefficient) relative to the magnitude of the error term. Although the impact of scale on the ability to estimate heterogeneous partworths is well known, neither the literature nor current practice address the sensitivity of pricing and positioning to scale. This sensitivity is important because (estimated) scale depends on seemingly innocuous market-research decisions such as whether attributes are described by text or by realistic images. We demonstrate the strategic implications of scale using a stylized model in which heterogeneity is modeled explicitly. If a firm shirks on the quality of a CBC study and acts on incorrectly observed scale, a follower, but not an innovator, can make costly strategic errors. Externally valid estimates of scale are extremely important. We demonstrate empirically that image realism and incentive alignment affect scale sufficiently to change strategic decisions and affect patent/copyright valuations by hundreds of millions of dollars

Modeling Decision of Choice Among Finite Alternative: Applications to Marketing and to Transportation Demand Theory

A methodology to improve the effectiveness of the design of innovation is proposed based on knowledge in the fields of psychometrics, utility theory and stochastic choice modeling. It is comprised of a consumer response and a managerial design process. The design process is one of idea generation, evaluation, and refinement while the consumer response is based on consumer measurement, an individual choice model, and aggregation of the individual choices. The consumer model interacts with the design process by providing diagnostics on consumer perceptions, preference, choice, and segmentation, as well as prediction of the share of choices. The individual response model processes the consumer measures by "reducing" them to an underlying set of perceptual dimensions. "Abstraction" defines homogeneous groups based on perceptions and preference. "Compaction" describes how the reduced space performance measures are combined to produce a scalar measure of goodness for each consumer and for each choice alternative. This goodness measure is linked to probability of choice for the new and old alternatives. In each step, theoretical, empirical, and statistical issues are identified and various techniques are described for each phase. The techniques are demonstrated based on survey data collected at MIT to support the design of a health maintenance organization (HMO). After discussing the issues of testing the model, the managerial design implications are shown by application to the MIT HMO case.Supported in part by the U.S. Army Research Office (Durham) under Contract No. DAHC04-73-C-003

Unstructured Direct Elicitation of Decision Rules

We investigate the feasibility of unstructured direct-elicitation (UDE) of decision rules consumers use to form consideration sets. With incentives to think hard and answer truthfully, tested formats ask respondents to state non-compensatory, compensatory, or mixed rules for agents who will select a product for the respondents. In a mobile-phone study two validation tasks (one delayed 3 weeks) ask respondents to indicate which of 32 mobile phones they would consider from a fractional 4[superscript 5]x2[superscript 2] design of features and levels. UDE predicts consideration sets better, across profiles and across respondents, than a structured direct-elicitation method (SDE). It predicts comparably to established incentive-aligned compensatory, non-compensatory, and mixed decompositional methods. In a more-complex (20x7x5[superscript 2]x4x3[superscript 4]x2[superscript 2]) automobile study, non-compensatory decomposition is not feasible and additive-utility decomposition is strained, but UDE scales well. Incentives are aligned for all methods using prize indemnity insurance to award a chance at $40,000 for an automobile plus cash. UDE predicts consideration sets better than either additive decomposition or an established SDE method (Casemap). We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of UDE relative to established methods.Research Grants Council (Hong Kong, China) (SAR (9041182, CityU 1454/06H))Pennsylvania State University (Smeal Small Research Grant

Temporal Variability and Predictors of Urinary Bisphenol A Concentrations in Men and Women

Background: Bisphenol A (BPA) is used to manufacture polymeric materials, such as polycarbonate plastics, and is found in a variety of consumer products. Recent data show widespread BPA exposure among the U.S. population.Objective Our goal in the present study was to determine the temporal variability and predictors of BPA exposure. Methods: We measured urinary concentrations of BPA among male and female patients from the Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Center. Results: Between 2004 and 2006, 217 urine samples were collected from 82 subjects: 45 women (145 samples) and 37 men (72 samples). Of these, 24 women and men were partners and contributed 42 pairs of samples collected on the same day. Ten women became pregnant during the follow-up period. Among the 217 urine samples, the median BPA concentration was 1.20 μg/L, ranging from below the limit of detection (0.4 μg/L) to 42.6 μg/L. Age, body mass index, and sex were not significant predictors of urinary BPA concentrations. BPA urinary concentrations among pregnant women were 26% higher (–26%, +115%) than those among the same women when not pregnant (p > 0.05). The urinary BPA concentrations of the female and male partner on the same day were correlated (r = 0.36; p = 0.02). The sensitivity of classifying a subject in the highest tertile using a single urine sample was 0.64. Conclusion: We found a nonsignificant increase in urinary BPA concentrations in women while pregnant compared with nonpregnant samples from the same women. Samples collected from partners on the same day were correlated, suggesting shared sources of exposure. Finally, a single urine sample showed moderate sensitivity for predicting a subject’s tertile categorization