Mixed population Minority Game with generalized strategies

We present a quantitative theory, based on crowd effects, for the market volatility in a Minority Game played by a mixed population. Below a critical concentration of generalized strategy players, we find that the volatility in the crowded regime remains above the random coin-toss value regardless of the "temperature" controlling strategy use. Our theory yields good agreement with numerical simulations.Comment: Revtex file + 3 figure

From market games to real-world markets

This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that an out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud and Sornette in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.Comment: Presented at APFA2 (Liege) July 2000. Proceedings: Eur. Phys. J. B Latex file + 10 .ps figs. [email protected]

Deterministic Dynamics in the Minority Game

The Minority Game (MG) behaves as a stochastically perturbed deterministic system due to the coin-toss invoked to resolve tied strategies. Averaging over this stochasticity yields a description of the MG's deterministic dynamics via mapping equations for the strategy score and global information. The strategy-score map contains both restoring-force and bias terms, whose magnitudes depend on the game's quenched disorder. Approximate analytical expressions are obtained and the effect of `market impact' discussed. The global-information map represents a trajectory on a De Bruijn graph. For small quenched disorder, an Eulerian trail represents a stable attractor. It is shown analytically how anti-persistence arises. The response to perturbations and different initial conditions are also discussed.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Crowd-Anticrowd Theory of Multi-Agent Market Games

We present a dynamical theory of a multi-agent market game, the so-called Minority Game (MG), based on crowds and anticrowds. The time-averaged version of the dynamical equations provides a quantitatively accurate, yet intuitively simple, explanation for the variation of the standard deviation (`volatility') in MG-like games. We demonstrate this for the basic MG, and the MG with stochastic strategies. The time-dependent equations themselves reproduce the essential dynamics of the MG.Comment: Presented at APFA2 (Liege) July 2000. Proceedings: Eur.Phys.J. B [email protected]

What is the excess risk of infertility in women after genital chlamydia infection? A systematic review of the evidence

Methods: Twelve databases were searched, limited to peer-reviewed literature published from January 1970 to September 2007. Conference abstracts and reference lists from reviews published since 2000 and from key articles were hand-searched. Studies were selected for review if they met the following criteria: (1) the study population comprised women of child-bearing age (defined as 15–45 years) and incorporated a comparison group of women documented as "chlamydia negative"; (2) the study outcomes included either infertility or successful pregnancy; and (3) the study design was one of the following: cohort, randomised controlled trial, "before and after" study, screening trial and systematic review. Studies were excluded if they described genital infections that either did not include Chlamydia trachomatis or described genital chlamydial co-infection, in which no data were available for C trachomatis infection alone. Results: 3349 studies were identified by the search. One study satisfied the inclusion criteria, a longitudinal investigation measuring pregnancy rates in adolescent women with and without current chlamydial infection at baseline. That study reported no significant difference in subsequent pregnancy rates; however, it had serious methodological limitations, which restricted its conclusions. Conclusions: This systematic review demonstrates the absence of valid evidence on the attributable risk of post-infective tubal factor infertility after genital chlamydial infection. The findings contribute empirical data to the growing debate surrounding previous assumptions about the natural history of chlamydial infection in women

The Two Phases of Galaxy Formation

Cosmological simulations of galaxy formation appear to show a two-phase character with a rapid early phase at z>2 during which in-situ stars are formed within the galaxy from infalling cold gas followed by an extended phase since z<3 during which ex-situ stars are primarily accreted. In the latter phase massive systems grow considerably in mass and radius by accretion of smaller satellite stellar systems formed at quite early times (z>3) outside of the virial radius of the forming central galaxy. These tentative conclusions are obtained from high resolution re-simulations of 39 individual galaxies in a full cosmological context with present-day virial halo masses ranging from 7e11 M_sun h^-1 < M_vir < 2.7e13 M_sun h^-1 and central galaxy masses between 4.5e10 M_sun h^-1 < M_* < 3.6e11 M_sun h^-1. The simulations include the effects of a uniform UV background, radiative cooling, star formation and energetic feedback from SNII. The importance of stellar accretion increases with galaxy mass and towards lower redshift. In our simulations lower mass galaxies ($M_* < 9e10 M_sun h^-1) accrete about 60 per cent of their present-day stellar mass. High mass galaxy ($M_* > 1.7e11 M_sun h^-1) assembly is dominated by accretion and merging with about 80 per cent of the stars added by the present-day. In general the simulated galaxies approximately double their mass since z=1. For massive systems this mass growth is not accompanied by significant star formation. The majority of the in-situ created stars is formed at z>2, primarily out of cold gas flows. We recover the observational result of archaeological downsizing, where the most massive galaxies harbor the oldest stars. We find that this is not in contradiction with hierarchical structure formation. Most stars in the massive galaxies are formed early on in smaller structures, the galaxies themselves are assembled late.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Directed Explicit Model Checking with HSF-SPIN

We present the explicit state model checker HSF-SPIN which is based on the model checker SPIN and its Promela modeling language. HSF-SPIN incorporates directed search algorithms for checking safety and a large class of LTL-specified liveness properties. We start off from the A* algorithm and define heuristics to accelerate the search into the direction of a specified failure situation. Next we propose an improved nested depth-first search algorithm that exploits the structure of Promela Never-Claims. As a result of both improvements, counterexamples will be shorter and the explored part of the state space will be smaller than with classical approaches, allowing to analyze larger state spaces. We evaluate the impact of the new heuristics and algorithms on a set of protocol models, some of which are real-world industrial protocols