Derivation and external validation of a simple risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for COVID-19: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

ABSTRACT: As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to spread, easy-to-use risk models that predict hospital mortality can assist in clinical decision making and triage. We aimed to develop a risk score model for in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was robust across hospitals and used clinical factors that are readily available and measured standardly across hospitals. In this retrospective observational study, we developed a risk score model using data collected by trained abstractors for patients in 20 diverse hospitals across the state of Michigan (Mi-COVID19) who were discharged between March 5, 2020 and August 14, 2020. Patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during hospitalization or were discharged with an ICD-10 code for COVID-19 (U07.1) were included. We employed an iterative forward selection approach to consider the inclusion of 145 potential risk factors available at hospital presentation. Model performance was externally validated with patients from 19 hospitals in the Mi-COVID19 registry not used in model development. We shared the model in an easy-to-use online application that allows the user to predict in-hospital mortality risk for a patient if they have any subset of the variables in the final model. Two thousand one hundred and ninety-three patients in the Mi-COVID19 registry met our inclusion criteria. The derivation and validation sets ultimately included 1690 and 398 patients, respectively, with mortality rates of 19.6% and 18.6%, respectively. The average age of participants in the study after exclusions was 64 years old, and the participants were 48% female, 49% Black, and 87% non-Hispanic. Our final model includes the patient\u27s age, first recorded respiratory rate, first recorded pulse oximetry, highest creatinine level on day of presentation, and hospital\u27s COVID-19 mortality rate. No other factors showed sufficient incremental model improvement to warrant inclusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the derivation and validation sets were .796 (95% confidence interval, .767-.826) and .829 (95% confidence interval, .782-.876) respectively. We conclude that the risk of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients can be reliably estimated using a few factors, which are standardly measured and available to physicians very early in a hospital encounter

An organ culture system to model early degenerative changes of the intervertebral disc

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Back pain, a significant source of morbidity in our society, is related to the degenerative changes of the intervertebral disc. At present, the treatment of disc disease consists of therapies that are aimed at symptomatic relief. This shortcoming stems in large part from our lack of understanding of the biochemical and molecular events that drive the disease process. The goal of this study is to develop a model of early disc degeneration using an organ culture. This approach is based on our previous studies that indicate that organ culture closely models molecular events that occur in vivo in an ex vivo setting. METHODS: To mimic a degenerative insult, discs were cultured under low oxygen tension in the presence of TNF-α, IL-1β and serum limiting conditions. RESULTS: Treatment resulted in compromised cell survival and changes in cellular morphology reminiscent of degeneration. There was strong suppression in the expression of matrix proteins including collagen types 1, 2, 6 and 9, proteoglycans, aggrecan and fibromodulin. Moreover, a strong induction in expression of catabolic matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) 3, 9 and 13 with a concomitant increase in aggrecan degradation was seen. An inductive effect on NGF expression was also noticed. Although similar, nucleus pulposus and annulus fibrosus tissues showed some differences in their response to the treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study show that perturbations in microenvironmental factors result in anatomical and gene expression change within the intervertebral disc that may ultimately compromise cell function and induce pathological deficits. This system would be a valuable screening tool to investigate interventional strategies aimed at restoring disc cell function

Immuno-Thrombotic Complications of COVID-19: Implications for Timing of Surgery and Anticoagulation

Early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, global governing bodies prioritized transmissibility-based precautions and hospital capacity as the foundation for delay of elective procedures. As elective surgical volumes increased, convalescent COVID-19 patients faced increased postoperative morbidity and mortality and clinicians had limited evidence for stratifying individual risk in this population. Clear evidence now demonstrates that those recovering from COVID-19 have increased postoperative morbidity and mortality. These data—in conjunction with the recent American Society of Anesthesiologists guidelines—offer the evidence necessary to expand the early pandemic guidelines and guide the surgeon’s preoperative risk assessment. Here, we argue elective surgeries should still be delayed on a personalized basis to maximize postoperative outcomes. We outline a framework for stratifying the individual COVID-19 patient’s fitness for surgery based on the symptoms and severity of acute or convalescent COVID-19 illness, coagulopathy assessment, and acuity of the surgical procedure. Although the most common manifestation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is COVID-19 pneumonitis, every system in the body is potentially afflicted by an endotheliitis. This endothelial derangement most often manifests as a hypercoagulable state on admission with associated occult and symptomatic venous and arterial thromboembolisms. The delicate balance between hyper and hypocoagulable states is defined by the local immune-thrombotic crosstalk that results commonly in a hemostatic derangement known as fibrinolytic shutdown. In tandem, the hemostatic derangements that occur during acute COVID-19 infection affect not only the timing of surgical procedures, but also the incidence of postoperative hemostatic complications related to COVID-19-associated coagulopathy (CAC). Traditional methods of thromboprophylaxis and treatment of thromboses after surgery require a tailored approach guided by an understanding of the pathophysiologic underpinnings of the COVID-19 patient. Likewise, a prolonged period of risk for developing hemostatic complications following hospitalization due to COVID-19 has resulted in guidelines from differing societies that recommend varying periods of delay following SARS-CoV-2 infection. In conclusion, we propose the perioperative, personalized assessment of COVID-19 patients’ CAC using viscoelastic hemostatic assays and fluorescent microclot analysis