The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices

This paper identifies the expansion and contraction phases of New Zealand's national and regional house prices, by employing techniques typically used to study cycles in real activity, the so-called Classical cycle dating method. We then enquire into the nature of the cycles, addressing five questions: (1) What are the New Zealand and regional house price cycles, and do the regional cycles differ from the national cycle?; (2) What are the typical durations, magnitudes and shapes of these house price cycles?; (3) Do cycles in house prices match cycles in economic activity, at either national or regional levels?; (4) Does it matter which of the two main sets of house price series are used? i.e. Quotable Value New Zealand (QVNZ) or Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)?; and (5) Does the sample period matter? Findings are evaluated in the context of work by Grimes, Aitken and Kerr (2004), and Hall and McDermott (2005). Avenues for further research are suggested.House price cycles; regional business cycles; classical business cycle; New Zealand

Regional business cycles in New Zealand:Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson- Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand’s 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand’s aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices. JEL Classification: C22, E32, R11, R12, R15 Keywords: Classical business cycle; Turning Points; Regional business cycles; Concordance statistics; New Zealand

The environmental control and life-support system for a lunar base: What drives its design

The purpose of this paper is to identify and briefly discuss some of the ground rules and mission scenario details that become drivers of the environmental control and life support (ECLS) system design and of the logistics related to the design. This paper is written for mission planners and non-ECLS system engineers to inform them of the details that will be important to the ECLS engineer when the design phase is reached. In addition, examples illustrate the impact of some selected mission characteristics on the logistics associated with ECLS systems. The last section of this paper focuses on the ECLS system technology development sequence and highlights specific portions that need emphasis

Similarities, Commonalities and Parallels in the Contributions of Thorstein Veblen and Friedrich Nietzsche

This inquiry seeks to establish that similarities, commonalities, and parallels can be identified in selected contributions advanced by Thorstein Veblen and Friedrich Nietzsche. In the main, their commonness is noted to appear in the critical approaches that also includes expressing deep-seated skepticism regarding the course to modernity, singling out institutions ruling society, and especially the economy—in the case of Veblen. Specialized in Philology, as Nietzsche extolls his Dionysian orientation this inquiry introduces the idea that Veblen’s foundation for his distinctly critical approach to ruling institutions also reflects a Dionysian perspective. In Thus Spoke Zarathustra (1883-85) Nietzsche introduces a character whom he develops as “The Last Man.” In The Vested Interests and the Common Man (1919), Veblen introduces a character whom he labels as his “Common Man:” shaped by particulars of America’s “vested interests,” and who could also be identified as a parallel extension of Nietzsche’s “Last Man.” JEL Classification Codes: B15 – Historical, Institutional, Evolutionary B31 – History of Economic Thought, Individuals B41 – Economic Methodology Keywords: Common Man, Thorstein Veblen, Friedrich Nietzsche, Last Man, Institution

Thorstein Veblen and His Underlying Philosophical Influences

This inquiry recognizes Thorstein Veblen first and foremost as a philosopher who advanced a literature in Social Sciences, generally, and Economic Science, in particular. Veblen’s thinking and writing were supported by rich traditions drawn from notable philosophers that included among several: Charles Sanders Peirce, Immanuel Kant, and Friedrich Nietzsche. Relying upon his strong background in Philosophy, he then sought to challenge mainstream, neoclassical economics, especially. As his career developed, he would turn his talents and energies towards advancing ideas that would ultimately prove foundational for heterodox economics and, relatedly, American Institutionalism. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Codes: B15 – Historical, Institutional, Evolutionary; B31 – History of Economic Thought, Individuals; B41 – Economic Methodology Keywords: Thorstein Veblen, Philosophy, Friedrich Nietzsche, Charles Sanders Peirce, Immanuel Kan

An unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency

We use unobserved components methodology to establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which region-specific cycles of Australian States and New Zealand are additionally important. West Australian and New Zealand region-specific growth cycles have exhibited distinctively different features, relative to the common cycle. For every Australasian region, the region-specific cycle variance dominates that of the common cycle, in contrast to findings for U.S. BEA regions and prior work for Australian States. The distinctiveness of New Zealand’s output and employment cycles is consistent with New Zealand retaining the flexibility of a separate currency and monetary policy, for periods when significant region-specific shocks occur