Modeling Particulate Emissions in Europe. A Framework to Estimate Reduction Potential and Control Costs

This paper presents the extension of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model that addresses present and future emissions of fine particulates in Europe, the potential for controlling these emissions and the costs of such emission reductions. Together with the existing modules dealing with the emissions of the precursor emissions of secondary aerosols such as sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), this extension enables the comparison of the potentials and costs for controlling primary emissions of fine particles with those of secondary aerosols and to find cost-minimal approaches for reducing ambient levels of particulate matter. The emissions of particulate matter (PM) in the RAINS model are calculated for three different size classes: the fine fraction (PM2.5), the coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2.5) and large particles (PM_>10 5m). Summed up, these three fractions represent total suspended particles (TSP). Fine particles are emitted from a large number of sources with large differences in their technical and economic properties. The methodology distinguishes 392 source categories for stationary energy combustion, industrial processes, mobile sources and agriculture. For each of these sectors, the study explores the applicable options for reducing PM emissions, their efficiency and their costs. Emissions characteristics of the individual sectors are strongly determined by country-specific conditions. The methodology estimates emission control costs of standard technologies under the specific conditions characteristic for the various European countries. Based on the assumption of the general availability of control technologies with equal technical properties and costs, a number of country-specific circumstances (level of technological advancement, installation size distribution, labor costs, etc.) are used to estimate the costs for the actual operation of pollution control equipment. For the individual source sectors, emissions are estimated based on statistical information on economic activity and emission factors that reflect hypothetical emissions if no control measures were applied. These emission factors were taken from the literature and were, to the maximum possible extent, adapted to the country-specific conditions. Actual emissions are calculated taking into account the application of emission control measures in a given sector, for which also costs are estimated. The methodology was implemented for all European countries, covering the period from 1990 to 2010. At an aggregated level, estimates for past years (1990, 1995) correspond well with other national and international inventories. However, discrepancies are found for some detailed results for individual sectors and activities, and more work will be necessary to clarify them. This preliminary implementation suggests for Europe a 50 percent decline of primary emissions of fine particles between 1990 and 1995, mainly due to the economic restructuring in central and eastern European countries. The recently tightened regulations on large combustion plants and mobile sources will further reduce PM emissions, so that for 2010 European PM emissions are expected to be 60 percent below the level of 1990. However, less improvement is expected for the health-relevant fraction of fine particles (PM2.5). It needs to be emphasized that these preliminary estimates are still associated with considerable uncertainties, and more work, involving national experts, will be necessary to obtain a verified and generally accepted European data base to estimate the potential for further reductions of fine particles in Europe. The present implementation (version 2.00) of the RAINS PM module on the Internet (www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/Rains-online.html) provides free access to the input data and results to facilitate interaction with national experts

A Framework to Estimate the Potential and Costs for the Control of Fine Particulate Emissions in Europe

This paper presents a methodology for estimating primary PM emissions in Europe and the costs involved to reduce these emissions from the various sources in the European countries. The framework developed is compatible with existing approaches to estimate emissions and costs for SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC in the RAINS model. Emissions of PM are released from a large variety of sources with significant technical and economic differences. The emission characteristic of the sources is also strongly influenced by country-specific conditions. The method applied considers the crucial parameters and allows sectoral and regional variation. The emissions of particulate matter (PM) in the RAINS model are calculated for three different size classes (i) fine fraction (PM2.5), (ii) coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2.5) and (iii) large particles (PM_>10 mu m). A methodology has been developed to estimate emission control costs of standard technologies under the specific conditions characteristic for the various European countries. Based on the assumption of the general availability of control technologies with equal technical properties and costs, a number of country-specific circumstances (level of technological advancement, installation size distribution, labor costs, etc.) are used to estimate the costs for the actual operation of pollution control equipment. Based on the developed methodology, a first estimate of the PM emissions in Europe was derived for the years 1990, 1995 and 2010. This estimate must be considered as preliminary, since many of the emission factors need revision and update with additional information. The projections for the year 2010 assume full implementation of the current legislation on emission controls, e.g., the EURO-IV emission standards resulting from the Auto Oil process for mobile sources, and regulations relating to the large combustion plant directive of the European Union. Major reductions in PM emissions occurred between 1990 and 1995, mainly because of the economic restructuring in Eastern Europe where many old coal power stations were retired. Between 1990 and 1995, TSP emissions declined by 41 percent; for 2010 a decline of 58 percent is projected. Emission reductions are most efficient for larger particles; for 2010, PM10 is calculated to decline by 56 percent, and PM2.5 by 48 percent. Consequently, fine fraction (PM2.5) will be relatively more important in the future (38 percent of TSP in 2010) compared to 31 percent of TSP in 1990. In 1990, combustion in energy industries, small non-industrial combustion sources, production processes and road transport contributed about 20 percent each to total TSP emissions in the EU-15. In the non-EU countries, small sources and power plants were responsible for more than 30 percent each, while road transport contributed only three percent of TSP. In those countries, small sources (domestic coal and wood combustion) are expected to increase their share to 45 percent in 2010, while in the EU-15 mobile sources will become the most important source category for TSP emissions (45 percent). For PM2.5, mobile sources were the largest contributor in 1990 in the EU-15 countries (31 percent). This share is expected to decline slightly by 2010 (28 percent) due to the strict regulations that were recently introduced. In the non-EU countries, industrial production processes were the largest source of PM2.5 emissions (36 percent), while in 2010 small combustion sources in the domestic sector will dominate (38 percent). The present implementation (version 1.03) of the RAINS PM module on the Internet (www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains/PM/pm-home.html) provides free access to the input data and results to facilitate interaction with national experts

Prevention of non-communicable disease in a population in nutrition transition: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study phase II

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) is a long term integrated community-based program for prevention of non-communicable disorders (NCD) by development of a healthy lifestyle and reduction of NCD risk factors. The study begun in 1999, is ongoing, to be continued for at least 20 years. A primary survey was done to collect baseline data in 15005 individuals, over 3 years of age, selected from cohorts of three medical heath centers. A questionnaire for past medical history and data was completed during interviews; blood pressure, pulse rate, and anthropometrical measurements and a limited physical examination were performed and lipid profiles, fasting blood sugar and 2-hours-postload-glucose challenge were measured. A DNA bank was also collected. For those subjects aged over 30 years, Rose questionnaire was completed and an electrocardiogram was taken. Data collected were directly stored in computers as database software- computer assisted system. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of lifestyle modification in preventing or postponing the development of NCD risk factors and outcomes in the TLGS population.</p> <p>Design and methods</p> <p>In phase II of the TLGS, lifestyle interventions were implemented in 5630 people and 9375 individuals served as controls. Primary, secondary and tertiary interventions were designed based on specific target groups including schoolchildren, housewives, and high-risk persons. Officials of various sectors such as health, education, municipality, police, media, traders and community leaders were actively engaged as decision makers and collaborators. Interventional strategies were based on lifestyle modifications in diet, smoking and physical activity through face-to-face education, leaflets & brochures, school program alterations, training volunteers as health team and treating patients with NCD risk factors. Collection of demographic, clinical and laboratory data will be repeated every 3 years to assess the effects of different interventions in the intervention group as compared to control group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This controlled community intervention will test the possibility of preventing or delaying the onset of non-communicable risk factors and disorders in a population in nutrition transition.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN52588395</p